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2024 Mock Draft 1.0 | FanGraphs Baseball

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Golf equipment have begun their pre-draft conferences, with some groups already a couple of week into theirs, whereas the final workforce to start out them (Milwaukee, so far as I do know) begins right this moment. The variety of folks in draft conferences varies considerably from workforce to workforce. Some have greater than 20 folks within the room, others 5 or so. When anybody individual within the draft room learns one thing new, whether or not it’s from a scout buddy with one other workforce or throughout a dialog with an agent or media individual, the opposite people within the room are inclined to additionally be taught that factor. It’s throughout this window that the dope begins to movement in a manner that makes a extra particular, full-round mock draft extra possible.

Under are notes I’ve compiled throughout the final couple of days from conversations with scouts, entrance workplace folks, and brokers. There isn’t intel on each single workforce or first spherical participant on the market within the ether proper now. In spots the place I’m making an informed guess based mostly on a participant’s match with previous workforce or decision-maker habits, I attempt to make it apparent that’s what I’m doing. I let you realize when rumors are coming from trade sources, whereas being obscure sufficient to not burn a supply. I even have some ideas peppered in that aren’t particular to groups’ picks, however as a substitute what the arc of the primary spherical of this draft would possibly seem like based mostly on the character of this yr’s class. For more information on the gamers under, head over to The Board for scouting stories, device grades, and rankings.

1. Cleveland Guardians
Decide: Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State
There hasn’t been any trade buzz in regards to the Guardians making an attempt like hell to chop an under-slot deal up right here as a manner of maximizing what they’ll do at picks 36, 48, and past. The draft doesn’t have the depth to make that technique very engaging. As a substitute, this appears to be about who Cleveland considers to be the perfect participant. For the reason that Mix, phrase of mouth has surrounded Travis Bazzana, and both Charlie Condon, JJ Wetherholt, or each. There are people who suppose the telegraphed curiosity in Wetherholt is a smokescreen, and people who consider that Condon’s extra unstable hit device isn’t a match with Cleveland’s typical modus operandi, however no one ever excludes Bazzana from their combine, which I feel is telling. There are those that suppose that after Guardians folks received round Bazzana, his make-up pushed the factor over the end line.

I don’t suppose the Wetherholt buzz is a smokescreen. Keep in mind that Cleveland, maybe greater than every other membership, cares a couple of participant’s underclass efficiency. If a man has an important sophomore yr, hits on the Cape, after which has a troublesome pre-draft spring, the Guards usually tend to keep on him and take him if he falls. That applies to the Chase DeLauter, Shane Bieber, Tanner Bibee, and Ethan Hankins picks. Wetherholt was my prime participant within the class coming into the spring. He had a hamstring damage this yr and didn’t slug like he did as a sophomore when he returned. He’s a greater defender than Bazzana by a not small quantity. If you happen to suppose his damage had a significant impression on his offensive output as I do (Wetherholt’s underlying knowledge is barely worse than Condon’s and Bazzana’s), then he would possibly simply be the perfect man.

What we don’t and might’t know is what the Guardians consider Condon’s protection. In the event that they suppose he can play heart area, then I’m extra inclined to consider they’d draft him. In the event that they suppose he’s a nook infielder, then I’m extra inclined to consider there’s an excessive amount of chase and strikeout threat for them to take him. The identical applies to Jac Caglianone, although should you instructed me the Guardians determined that the facility upside of both of these guys was well worth the threat, it might strike me as out of character for the org however not loopy from a expertise standpoint.

2. Cincinnati Reds
Decide: Charlie Condon, 3B/CF/1B, Georgia
I haven’t spoken with anybody who has urged the Reds would go on Condon if he’s right here. If Condon goes first, people with groups have talked about Cincinnati pivoting to both Chase Burns or Jac Caglianone.

3. Colorado Rockies
Decide: Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest
Apart from some point out of Jac Caglianone, people are principally placing the Rockies on school pitching right here, with some particularly mentioning Burns however none singling out Hagen Smith. Folks with different golf equipment suppose Invoice Schmidt may not have the luxurious of ready very lengthy for this decide to achieve Coors, and that that can affect what they do with this decide.

4. Oakland Athletics
Decide: Braden Montgomery, RF, Texas A&M
That is the place there begins to be extra variability. I feel the dream state of affairs for Oakland is for Condon or Wetherholt to go first, then for Cags and Burns to go two and three in some order, leaving Bazzana for the taking at decide 4. I feel they’d favor Bazzana to Wetherholt if each have been out there right here. Nick Kurtz has been talked about, although I’ve different folks telling me he’s falling. However probably the most frequent trade chatter has Braden Montgomery with Oakland. If there’s a development in Oakland’s early choices, it’s much less a couple of sort of participant they’re into and seemingly extra about location, with a desire for guys within the Southwest or on the West Coast (Jacob Wilson, Max Muncy, Daniel Susac, Henry Bolte, Cole Miller, Denzel Clarke). Montgomery spent two years at Stanford and one at A&M.

5. Chicago White Sox
Decide: Jac Caglianone, 1B/RF, Florida
I don’t have a lot team-specific dope in regards to the White Sox other than some chatter that they’ve entertained the thought of an under-slot cope with Konnor Griffin. On this state of affairs, Caglianone is right here and presents franchise-altering upside for an org that would actually use it. The optics of taking perhaps probably the most well-known man within the draft when it’s additionally justifiable based mostly on his expertise would possibly quell a few of the angst across the ugliness of their rebuild.

6. Kansas Metropolis Royals
Decide: Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas
Maybe probably the most constant rumor I’ve heard is that Kansas Metropolis likes Smith and highschool shortstop Bryce Rainer.

7. St. Louis Cardinals
Decide: Bryce Rainer, SS, Harvard Westlake (CA)
On this state of affairs, JJ Wetherholt is simply sitting there, which is likely to be too tempting for the Cardinals to go up. Names folks have put with St. Louis embody Nick Kurtz, Chase Burns (does he have a house between decide no. 3 and right here?), and Rainer. Recall that Masyn Winn was additionally a two-way prospect with an enormous arm and that has labored out. I don’t suppose Konnor Griffin is in play right here in any respect.

8. Los Angeles Angels
Decide: JJ Wetherholt, 2B, West Virginia
I watched Wetherholt go into the Angels’ suite for a gathering on the Mix and I don’t suppose you are taking that assembly should you’re Wetherholt except there’s an opportunity you’re going to fall this far. This might match the Angels’ categorical lane tendencies, as Wetherholt is fairly more likely to transfer quick. Decide eight can also be the primary place the place Cam Caminiti’s title has been talked about, however you’d higher actually, actually like the highschool pitcher you’re taking up the hitters nonetheless out there right here.

9. Pittsburgh Pirates
Decide: Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest
Rival golf equipment have the Pirates on school hitting right here as a result of we’re attending to the purpose the place the present regime has to start out profitable, and they should enhance the lineup round all of their younger pitching. Cam Smith could be good worth right here, however he wants a swing change to get to his energy and the Pirates haven’t been capable of assist Ke’Bryan Hayes try this. My sources have particularly talked about Kurtz with Pittsburgh. He’d be a clear, quick-moving match given their huge league wants and his energy is already actualized.

10. Washington Nationals
Decide: Konnor Griffin, OF, Jackson Prep (MS)
If we’re selecting potential touchdown spots for Griffin, a toolsy excessive schooler with strikeout threat, it’s the workforce that just lately drafted Elijah Inexperienced and Brady Home. However Washington has a brand new scouting director (Danny Haas, previously of the Diamondbacks), so this would possibly rely on whether or not Haas or Mike Rizzo is making the decide.

This subsequent space of the draft is the place there’s usually thought of to be a expertise drop-off. Groups that decide within the early a part of a brand new expertise tier have extra incentive to chop an under-slot deal or discover sanctuary in a safer school participant. On this draft, that’s going to be school hitters. I wish to level out that a number of of the subsequent half dozen groups are ones that are inclined to care rather a lot about contact abilities. As a result of Tennessee second baseman Christian Moore didn’t carry out particularly nicely in that regard, he could also be a candidate to slip deeper than groups count on.

11. Detroit Tigers
Decide: Ryan Waldschmidt, OF, Kentucky
Konnor Griffin and Cam Caminiti have been talked about right here, and there are four-corners space scouts who suppose Detroit is the favourite to take the latter. Apart from Jackson Jobe, the Tigers have tended to take school hitters who’ve carried out at Energy 5 Conferences. As groups have gathered for conferences, Waldschmidt is the title that retains arising as one among a handful of gamers who appear poised to go increased than anticipated as a result of his hit knowledge is powerful and he additionally has huge bodily instruments.

12. Boston Crimson Sox
Decide: James Tibbs, OF, Florida State
There isn’t any consensus as to what Boston will do right here. I’ve spoken with individuals who suppose Craig Breslow’s background in pitching dev will push the org in that route, however Trey Yesavage and one or two of the highschool pitchers are the one possible choices right here, and should you’re good at pitching dev you don’t have to make use of first spherical sources on one.

13. San Francisco Giants
Decide: Cam Caminiti, LHP, Saguaro HS (AZ)
I’ve had scouts point out highschool lefties Caminiti and Kash Mayfield right here, and I thought of mocking Carson Benge right here based mostly on San Francisco’s patterns of habits as a result of, like Reggie Crawford and Bryce Eldridge earlier than him, he’s a two-way participant who may need one other gear as soon as he focuses on one factor. I additionally surprise if Theo Gillen is a match right here as a result of the Giants take gamers who find yourself falling for non-talent causes (Crawford had TJ, Walker Martin wasn’t a showcase fixture, Carson Whisenhunt was suspended, and so forth.). Gillen hasn’t been capable of throw nicely since a labrum damage, however he is likely to be the perfect highschool hitter on this class (I feel he’s).

14. Chicago Cubs
Decide: Malcolm Moore, C, Stanford
You can put any of the faculty hitters who carried out from a bat-to-ball standpoint right here. Moore solely hit .255 this yr, however his underlying knowledge is nice and signifies he was the sufferer of unhealthy luck. Like Matt Shaw final yr, Moore isn’t a lock to remain at his present place due to a mediocre arm.

15. Seattle Mariners
Decide: Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina
This sounds prefer it is likely to be Yesavage’s absolute flooring. The Mariners have been on him popping out of highschool.

16. Miami Marlins
Decide: Cam Smith, 3B, Florida State
This might be an important worth decide at this spot, and in contrast to numerous different “secure” school hitters, Smith has some swing optimization stuff to work on. His timeline additionally suits higher with the Marlins’ window of rivalry than the tremendous polished school bats.

17. Milwaukee Brewers
Decide: Seaver King, SS, Wake Forest
The Brewers aren’t scared off by an absence of prototypical dimension (Eric Brown Jr., Robert Moore, Dylan O’Rae, and so forth.), which is the one factor King lacks. Milwaukee has additionally been extra open to letting guys attempt to transfer up the defensive spectrum, which might ideally occur for King, who performed principally third base at Wake. That is the primary spot Kaelen Culpepper’s title has surfaced. Carson Benge has additionally been talked about right here and on the subsequent two picks.

18. Tampa Bay Rays
Decide: Christian Moore, 2B, Tennessee
I’ve Moore’s slide stopping right here as a result of, counterintuitive although it could be, the Rays are inclined to take toolsy school guys with suspect hit instruments, like Moore. Carson Benge has additionally been talked about right here.

19. New York Mets
Decide: Carson Benge, OF, Oklahoma State
I suppose we’re stepping into the world the place a few of the different top-tier highschool pitchers are in play, however the tendency of David Stearns and co. in Milwaukee was to take guys who make contact like Benge does.

This subsequent third of the primary spherical is the place we must always begin seeing a ton of highschool pitchers get drafted. Matching pitchers with potential groups at this stage is extra about sample recognition than substantive dope.

20. Toronto Blue Jays
Decide: William Schmidt, RHP, Catholic HS (LA)
If any of the hitters who I’ve mocked within the final 10 picks get right here, I really feel like they’d be in play. Toronto’s pitcher draftees are inclined to all have wonderful breaking ball high quality and Schmidt’s curveball could also be the perfect within the draft. Highschool righty Ryan Sloan additionally has an important slider and a a lot decrease launch than Schmidt.

21. Minnesota Twins
Decide: Theo Gillen, 2B/CF, Westlake HS (TX)
Gillen is likely to be the perfect highschool hitter on this whole class, however accidents go away him poised to maneuver from shortstop to both second base or heart area in professional ball. Minnesota has been completely happy to scoop up hitters with well being points every of the final two drafts.

22. Baltimore Orioles
Decide: Brody Brecht, RHP, Iowa
Right here begins the three- or four-team cluster of golf equipment which are actually, actually good at creating pitchers. Brecht has monster stuff and an enormous body; he’s principally the pitching model of Caglianone on this class. If any of the Orioles, Braves, Dodgers, or Yankees get their fingers on him, they could flip him right into a monster.

23. Los Angeles Dodgers
Decide: Kellon Lindsey, SS/CF, Hardee HS (FL)
There are additionally some prep arms who verify the Dodgers’ traditional bins (undersized, athletic dudes with fastball experience and a very good breaking ball) like Braylon Doughty and maybe Ryan Sloan, however Lindsey’s upside is simply too huge to let him slide any additional, particularly with San Diego lurking just a few picks behind and on the lookout for a Trea Turner mulligan.

24. Atlanta Braves
Decide: Braylon Doughty, RHP, Chaparral HS (CA)
Just like the Dodgers, the Braves are inclined to care about fastball experience and breaking ball high quality greater than dimension and projectability. Different golf equipment suppose they’re going to take a pitcher right here, with Doughty and Ryan Sloan those who really feel probably the most just like the Braves. This might even be an fascinating spot to take Vance Honeycutt and see should you can rework his swing. Idaho excessive schooler Dax Whitney shares pitch traits with Doughty, and there was buzz late final night time that Whitney may need a deal in hand with somebody.

25. San Diego Padres
Decide: Kash Mayfield, LHP, Elk Metropolis (OK)
Rival golf equipment have tended to place the Padres on highschool guys. Kellon Lindsey, Mayfield, and William Schmidt have all been talked about.

26. New York Yankees
Decide: Ryan Sloan, RHP, York HS (IL)
I solely have one rumor related to the Yankees and it facilities round Sloan. Sloan’s arm slot creates considerably lateral motion on his stuff, however they’ve had success creating guys like Michael King for whom that can also be true.

27. Philadelphia Phillies
Decide: PJ Morlando, OF, Summerville HS (SC)
Groups have heard that the Phillies are contemplating Morlando, in addition to the projectable taste of excessive schooler pitchers who’re poised to go on this vary (Kash Mayfield, William Schmidt, Owen Corridor, Dasan Hill).

28. Houston Astros
Decide: Tyson Lewis, SS, Millard West HS (NE)
Just like the Rays, the Astros have an analytical fame however are inclined to draft for instruments greater than statistical efficiency, and Lewis has these. As I started sourcing on these picks later within the spherical, the Lewis/Astros pairing was the primary that emerged.

29. Arizona Diamondbacks
Decide: Jurrangelo Cijntje, RHP/LHP, Mississippi State
I’ve no particular dope right here however different groups count on the D-backs, who’ve a number of comp pics, to pick out a pair various kinds of gamers the identical manner they did with their wonderful 2019 class.

30. Texas Rangers
Decide: Dax Whitney, RHP, Blackfoot (ID)
That is the opposite membership that has been talked about as I’ve kicked the tires on the rumor that Whitney has a deal in hand.


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