2025 ZiPS Projections: Los Angeles Dodgers

For the twenty first consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For extra data on the ZiPS projections, please seek the advice of this yr’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The crew order is chosen by lot, and the following crew up is the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Batters

They’re the Dodgers, in order ordinary, they’ve massive stars, good depth, and a truckload of versatility at most positions. Is that ’nuff mentioned?

A 7-WAR projection for a DH is, after all, bananas, and ZiPS truly has a 40/40 season because the common Shohei Ohtani projection, not an aspirational purpose. Naturally, he’s bought an awesome shot at going 50/50 once more, although I’ve to marvel if, now that he’s reached that milestone and might be again to pitching, the Dodgers will insist on him being extra conservative along with his baserunning.

Actually, there simply aren’t many surprises right here. ZiPS sees the left subject scenario as merely OK because it stands proper now, with each different place higher than that. Plenty of this can be old-fashioned in just a few weeks (information of Michael Conforto’s signing broke as I used to be penning this, as an illustration), however the Dodgers may theoretically roll with the lineup they’ve and be simply superb. How precisely Mookie Betts, Tommy Edman, and Chris Taylor find yourself being deployed continues to be a bit TBD, although it does seem that Plan A will end in Betts getting a number of time at shortstop once more.

ZiPS expects one thing of a bounce-back season from James Outman, although it’s arduous to say simply how a lot rope a crew just like the Dodgers will give him. Apart from noting how good the Dodgers are in every single place, the lineup is boring in the very best form of manner. It’s a bunch of terrific gamers nonetheless principally within the prime of their careers, most of whom might be good-to-great in 2025.

If there’s a weak spot — and I could also be stretching the definition of the phrase — it’s that ZiPS sees fewer hitters than ordinary within the excessive minors who’re straining to hit the majors, at the least fewer in comparison with the Dodgers’ requirements. ZiPS likes Dalton Dashing simply superb, although extra as a catcher, which isn’t a positional downside for the crew, and it already sees Alex Freeland as a legit main league starter. However many of the actually attention-grabbing prospects are both pitchers or developmental hitters within the very low minors who’re form of out of the ZiPS wheelhouse.

Pitchers

Los Angeles’ rotation of tremendously gifted arms with damage danger nearly fell aside this yr, because the Dodgers struggled late within the season to truly get 5 of their 12 or 13 attention-grabbing starters in uniform concurrently. However there are not any type factors in championships and nearly falling aside was all they wanted, because the crew rolled the Yankees within the World Collection.

As I famous in his transaction writeup, Blake Snell does rather a lot to stabilize the rotation, and if the Dodgers can get 700 innings out of a mixture of him, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Ohtani, and Tony Gonsolin, I’m unsure any NL West crew can significantly threaten for the division. That mentioned, there nonetheless are a number of unknowns right here. The precise timetable for Ohtani’s return to pitching is developing “ask me later” on the Magic 8-Ball, with the rehab from the damage he suffered in Recreation 2 of the World Collection probably complicating issues. On the very least, he’s unlikely to be prepared for the crew’s opening sequence in Japan. Plus, it could be stunning if the Dodgers weren’t within the combine for Roki Sasaki or different starters, and whereas he’s not below contract proper now, so far as I’m conscious, Clayton Kershaw will mainly be a Dodger at any time when he’s prepared (he’s presently recovering from toe and knee surgical procedure).

The bullpen tasks as among the best in baseball. Projecting Michael Kopech as solely a reliever drops his projected ERA to three.39, making him one in every of eight relievers on the depth chart (together with the lately re-signed Blake Treinen) projected for an ERA below 3.50 in such a job. ZiPS continues to be a bit skeptical of Anthony Banda (although it nonetheless has him with an ERA beneath 4.00 as a reliever) and it’s not sure simply how a lot Giovanny Gallegos has left. Fortunately, the Dodgers have among the best monitor information round of compressing strong bullpen outings of virtually anybody; I feel a block of cheddar cheese is perhaps above substitute stage out of the Dodgers ‘pen.

The Dodgers are the early favourite to enter 2025 because the crew ZiPS tasks to win essentially the most video games. Surprising, proper?

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by the use of these listed right here. Dimension of participant names could be very roughly proportional to Depth Chart enjoying time. The ultimate crew projections could differ significantly from our Depth Chart enjoying time.

Gamers are listed with their most up-to-date groups wherever doable. This contains gamers who’re unsigned or have retired, gamers who will miss 2025 resulting from damage, and gamers who have been launched in 2024. So sure, in the event you see Joe Schmoe, who stop baseball again in August to kind a Norwegian Ukulele Dixieland Jazz band that solely covers songs by The Smiths, he’s nonetheless listed right here deliberately. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.11.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values may differ barely from people who seem within the full launch of ZiPS. Lastly, I’ll advise anybody in opposition to — and may karate chop anybody responsible of — merely including up WAR totals on a depth chart to supply projected crew WAR. You will need to keep in mind that ZiPS is agnostic about enjoying time, and has no details about, for instance, how shortly a crew will name up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As at all times, incorrect projections are both brought on by misinformation, a non-pragmatic actuality, or by the skillful sabotage of our good friend and former editor. You may, nonetheless, nonetheless get mad at me on Twitter or on BlueSky.