The Tampa Bay Lightning took down the Washington Capitals 3-0 on Saturday night time. The highest performer was goalie Andrei Vasilesvkiy who saved all 32 photographs on purpose to earn his first shutout of the season and the primary star of the sport.
When his season general, it doesn’t appear to be Vasilevskiy has improved a lot from final season. He has a .896 save proportion (SV%) and a 2.64 goals-against common (GAA) in his first seven video games. It doesn’t assist that he’s been pulled from a recreation already this season. Nonetheless, he’s off to a a lot stronger begin than the surface-level numbers and even elements of the attention take a look at counsel.
It’s time to color a greater image of how his season is trying to date.
1 Sport Skewing the Numbers
First, let’s have a look at how a lot intestine punch from the Toronto Maple Leafs is influencing Vasilevskiy’s general season numbers. He saved 10 of 14 (.714 SV%) earlier than being lifted for backup Jonas Johansson. Pulling him was a should, the sport was getting uncontrolled and Johansson restricted the Maple Leafs to a single purpose the remainder of the sport.
Nonetheless, while you take away this outing from his season stats, he appears to be like nearer to the standard Vasy we’ve gotten to know. Within the different six video games, he has saved 137 of 150 photographs for a .913 SV%. That’s significantly better. It could nonetheless be the third-worst save proportion of his profession if he had been to complete the season with that quantity, however it might nonetheless be thought of a return to kind.
Going recreation by recreation a bit, it will also be argued key performances inflate his save proportion the identical method one recreation drags it down. Take away the shutout and the Leafs recreation, the 2 greatest outliers of his begin, and his save proportion is .889. That is being identified in all equity.
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So right here’s one other method to decide it. He’s performed seven video games, and he’s allowed three targets or fewer in 5 of them. If the goalie holds groups to a few targets or fewer almost three-fourths of the time, it’s an excellent indicator that he’s getting his job achieved.
What the Superior Stats Say
Superior stats are extra favorable to Vasilevskiy as properly. In response to Cash Puck, he has a 2.0 targets saved above anticipated. It’s an enchancment out of the gate from the way it compares to final season. Final season, he completed with a minus-2.5 targets saved above anticipated.
His 2.0 is best than another notable goalies:
- Jordan Binnington: 1.6
- Jeremy Swayman: 1.4
- Juuse Saros: 0.4
- Sergei Bobrovsky: minus-2.1
Nonetheless, it’s far behind different prime goalies within the league:
So, whereas he’s enjoying higher than it’d look on the floor, he nonetheless must catch as much as different prime goalies within the league. It’s method too early to check it to seasons previous as a result of everybody will look worse. It’s an accumulative stat.
For instance, Vasilevskiy had a 25.3 targets saved above anticipated in 2022-23, the 12 months earlier than his harm. He’s at the moment averaging .311 targets saved above anticipated per 60 minutes. In 55 begins, that might be 17.1. It’s nonetheless not the place he was earlier than his harm, however it might be a robust bounceback.
So, it’s clear that out of the gate, Vasilevskiy just isn’t placing up numbers which can be going to show heads. Nonetheless, he’s nonetheless doing precisely what he must do, and that’s play properly sufficient for the Lightning to win.
