One 12 months faraway from an offseason that noticed the Padres radically alter the path of their franchise by paring down on payroll and buying and selling celebrity Juan Soto to the Yankees, San Diego as soon as once more finds itself in one thing of a monetary pickle. The membership is predicted to take care of its payroll degree from 2024 headed into 2025; based on RosterResource, that’s a price range of $169MM and a luxurious tax payroll that falls beneath the primary threshold (which sits at $241MM in 2025). Attending to that degree of payroll could also be simpler stated than accomplished, nonetheless, because the Padres are at present projected for a payroll just below $210MM in 2025 with a luxurious tax payroll of $244M, simply above the primary threshold.
That leaves the membership probably seeking to pare down payroll by round $40MM this winter, they usually’ll absolutely be hoping to make additions to the staff despite these cuts. The Padres might want to add a minimum of one starter to pair with a trio of Dylan Stop, Michael King, and Yu Darvish this winter, and the departure of Jurickson Profar leaves a void in left area, to not point out the losses of function gamers David Peralta and Donovan Solano weakening the membership’s lineup at DH and on the bench. After all, any gamers the membership components methods with to scale back payroll will certainly create new holes that should be crammed, leaving A.J. Preller and the membership’s entrance workplace in a little bit of a pickle.
One avenue the Padres may use to scale back payroll this 12 months runs by way of Luis Arraez. The membership acquired the 27-year-old again in Could, and he typically performed pretty effectively throughout his time in San Diego this 12 months with a .318/.346/.398 slash line that was good for a 111 wRC+ and earned him the third consecutive batting title of his profession. A contact savant who has managed to scale back his already spectacular 10% strikeout price from 2021 to 7.1% in 2022, 5.4% in 2023, and 4.3% this previous 12 months, Arraez struck out an unbelievable 3.4% of the time throughout his time with the Padres. As an above-average hitter who’s extra dependable than anybody else within the recreation with regards to placing the bat on the ball, it’s straightforward to see why Arraez has been enticing sufficient to golf equipment that each the Marlins and Padres have given up vital packages to land him lately.
That preternatural knack for contact is held again by Arraez’s lackluster plate self-discipline inflicting his stroll price to say no steadily alongside his strikeout price over time and an entire lack of energy, nonetheless. Each of these flaws have been on full show in 2024, as Arraez walked at a 3.6% clip with an ISO of .078, which each ranked third from the underside amongst certified main league hitters. Whereas it’s potential that the thumb damage Arraez performed by way of this 12 months earlier than present process surgical procedure in October may have impacted him within the energy division, however even his career-high .115 ISO with the Marlins final 12 months landed simply outdoors the underside ten amongst certified hitters. Between these flaws in his hitting profile and his lackluster protection that largely restricted him to first base and DH with the Padres, it’s additionally straightforward to see why each the Twins and Marlins have been keen to half methods with him on the commerce market lately.
May Arraez be dealt for the third 12 months in a row this winter? Doing so is maybe the only path to slashing a major chunk of payroll for the Padres. Stop and King are each projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for hefty arbitration salaries, however neither reaches the $14.6MM determine Arraez is at present penciled in for. Clearing that cash off the books would drop the Padres’ payroll to round $195MM. Whereas San Diego would then want to exchange Arraez at first base headed into subsequent 12 months, quite a lot of bats on the place together with former Padres Josh Bell, Ty France, and Anthony Rizzo determine to be obtainable for a relative discount this winter, which means it must be pretty straightforward for the membership to exchange Arraez within the lineup and nonetheless come out $10-12MM forward, to not point out that the return for Arraez’s companies may assist to plug holes within the rotation or outfield. These motivations behind a possible deal have been sufficient to land Arraez the seventeenth spot on MLBTR’s High 35 offseason commerce candidates listing.
With that being stated, a commerce of Arraez isn’t the one possibility on the Padres’ disposal as they search for methods to pare down payroll. He’s already indicated this winter that he can be open to an extension with the membership this winter as he stares down his last 12 months beneath staff management earlier than free company, and the Padres have frequently labored out contracts that supply the membership extra monetary flexibility within the short-term and the participant extra safety in the long run prior to now. That features offers that comes collectively simply earlier than a participant is because of attain free company, such because the extensions they’ve supplied to Darvish and Manny Machado lately.
If Arraez have been amenable to it, it’s straightforward to think about the Padres back-loading the deal to scale back his 2025 wage considerably and/or providing a decrease AAV over a long term with a view to duck beneath the luxurious tax threshold. As one instance, a six-year deal price $60MM would include an AAV of simply $10MM, permitting the membership to shave ~$4.6MM of its anticipated luxurious tax invoice for 2025. In the meantime, if the deal was structured such that Arraez made simply $5MM within the first 12 months of the deal adopted by $11MM salaries over the remainder of the contract, that may supply the Padres almost $10MM in financial savings on their 2025 payroll as in comparison with his arbitration salary- a determine not that totally different than what they’d save by buying and selling him and changing him with a low-cost veteran.
These numbers are purely hypothetical, in fact, and it’s actually potential Arraez wouldn’t need to lock right into a cope with such a comparatively low annual wage with out first seeing what’s obtainable to him on the open market. That’s not the one flaw within the plan of extending Arraez, both; whereas a cope with an identical construction to the one talked about above can be a significant assist in fixing San Diego’s rapid payroll issues for 2025, in a longer-term view it merely kicks the can down the highway to subsequent season when Arraez’s wage would shoot up by $6MM and will depart the membership in the identical monetary jam they discover themselves in now.
For those who have been within the Padres’ sneakers, would you look to deal Arraez elsewhere this winter and substitute him at first base, try to increase him long-term, or just play out the season and minimize payroll elsewhere? Have your say within the ballot beneath!
