The Reds entered the 2024 season as hopeful contenders however discover themselves 5 video games below .500 and 10.5 video games again of the Brewers for the division lead within the Nationwide League Central. It’s actually not how they drew issues up, however the tightly bunched NL Wild Card image nonetheless leaves Cincinnati with some reputable playoff aspirations. The Reds are solely 4 video games again of the third NL Wild Card spot in the intervening time. They’re certainly one of many groups on the Wild Card bubble whose deadline exercise will seemingly hinge on how the workforce performs within the coming weeks. In reality, common supervisor Brad Meador successfully confirmed as a lot to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer.

“We have now to attend and see how we end off this street journey and the homestand developing, after which we’ll see,” Meador tells Wittenmyer. “We’re speaking about it. We’d love to have the ability to add, however realistically, we’ll most likely simply need to see the way it goes.”

The Reds management their very own destiny, in lots of respects, and so they’ll head into the upcoming All-Star break with a collection of eminently winnable video games. They took the primary of a three-game set at Yankee Stadium final night time and have a troublesome activity ending off that collection, however they’ll shut out the primary half towards three groups with sub-.500 data — together with the 2 worst golf equipment within the NL. On Friday, Cincinnati commences a 10-game homestand the place they’ll host the Tigers, Rockies and Marlins for 3, 4 and three video games, respectively. The Reds will open the second half with a nine-game street journey by way of Washington, Atlanta and St. Petersburg earlier than beginning a house collection towards the Cubs on July 29 (in the future earlier than the July 30 commerce deadline).

It’s a pivotal stretch of video games for the Reds, to say the least. A successful streak might catapult them north of .500 and prominently into the Wild Card hunt (whereas narrowing the division hole), whereas an underwhelming stretch towards among the less-competitive golf equipment on the upcoming schedule might function a demise knell for his or her 2024 postseason aspirations. Enjoying roughly .500 ball between now and July 30 would go away the entrance workplace with some more durable choices to make. For now, Meador acknowledged “imprecise” conversations exploring each side of the market whereas cautioning nothing is shut.

Among the many most notable commerce candidates on the roster, if the Reds go that route, might be Jonathan India and Frankie Montas. India is hitting .275/.381/.405 with 5 homers and eight steals on the season. He’s fanned in a career-low 19.7% of his plate appearances and has restored his stroll fee to a hefty 12.8% after seeing it dip to a mixed 8.6% in 2022-23.

India is enjoying out the primary season of a two-year, $8.8MM contract that purchased out two of his three arbitration seasons. He’s locked right into a $5MM wage for the 2025 season and can be arbitration-eligible within the 2025-26 offseason earlier than hitting the open market post-2026. He’s not a superb defensive second baseman, however he’s been a line-drive machine on the plate this yr (24.9%) whereas exhibiting his greatest Ok-BB profile since successful NL Rookie of the Yr in 2021.

Whereas India conceded to Wittenmyer that final yr’s slate of commerce rumblings bought to him mentally, this time round he feels extra ready for it. The 27-year-old emphasised a need to stay in Cincinnati long-term, noting he “loves” town and group whereas concurrently acknowledging {that a} potential commerce is past his management and never one thing on which he plans to dwell.

Montas can be the roster’s most simple commerce candidate. The 31-year-old hasn’t bounced again to his Oakland type however has been wholesome with the Reds after lacking almost all the 2023 season attributable to shoulder surgical procedure. He’s on a one-year, $16MM contract and has pitched to a 4.23 ERA in 72 1/3 innings throughout 15 begins.

Montas’ 95.1 mph common heater (by way of Statcast) is down from its 96.8 mph peak, and his 18.6% strikeout fee isn’t near his career-best 26.6% mark, set again in 2021. Nonetheless, he’s pitched like a succesful sufficient fourth starter and has seen his velocity construct because the season has progressed. Montas sat 94 mph along with his fastball by way of late April however is at 95.5 mph relationship again to Might 1.

Over Montas’ previous six begins, he’s pitched 31 1/3 innings of three.73 ERA ball with a much-improved 23.3% strikeout fee. His 10.9% stroll fee in that stretch is simply too excessive, however the velocity and missed bats are starting to resurface. If he can proceed a few of these optimistic positive factors in velocity and strikeouts, Montas could possibly be of curiosity to groups trying so as to add to the center tier of their rotation.

The Reds produce other candidates to be moved, although their willingness to provide out some shocking opt-out clauses over the winter might work towards them in that regard. Veterans Emilio Pagan and Nick Martinez signed two-year contracts value $16MM and $26MM, respectively, however the second season of every of these offers is a participant possibility. As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco detailed for MLBTR Entrance Workplace subscribers earlier this week, such clauses typically current extreme impediments to buying and selling a participant.

Different names to observe within the occasion of a Reds sale would come with relievers Buck Farmer, Lucas Sims and Brent Suter. All three are free brokers at season’s finish. Every has had various ranges of success this season whereas enjoying on an reasonably priced wage. The return for any a kind of three seemingly wouldn’t be monumental however might shed a small cash off the payroll whereas including a lottery-ticket prospect to the decrease tiers of the farm system.

All of that’s placing the cart earlier than the horse, nevertheless. The Reds’ roster may have a pleasant window of winnable video games to persuade the entrance workplace that including items is the right route within the weeks forward. Cincinnati has acquired negligible manufacturing from the outfield, designated hitter and first base this season — though Noelvi Marte’s latest return seemingly means they’ll set up a productive hitter (Jeimer Candelario) in at first base extra frequently now. Including some sort of bat to assist enhance the offense can be prudent — assuming the Reds can maintain themselves afloat and even enhance upon their standing within the subsequent couple weeks.