Extensively considered one the perfect goalies within the NHL, Andrei Vasilevskiy had the worst statistical season of his profession final season. In September, the 29-year-old had surgical procedure to restore a herniated lumbar disc in his again, in response to Chris Bengel at CBS Sports activities, and he didn’t return till Nov. 24 in opposition to the Carolina Hurricanes, when he recorded 22 saves on 24 pictures.
Nevertheless, the remainder of the season didn’t go as easily. Given his harm and late begin to the season, Vasilevskiy was removed from peak efficiency. How do his numbers from final season stack up in comparison with the remainder of his profession? Why should Vasilevskiy bounce again for the Tampa Bay Lightning to have a profitable 2024-25 season?
Analyzing Vasilevskiy’s 2023-24 Season
Vasilevskiy posted a number of profession lows at 5-on-5 final season. His .904 save share (SV%) at 5v5 ranked final in his ten-year tenure within the NHL. It was the primary time he had a save share beneath .920 at 5-on-5. Moreover, he had the second lowest anticipated Fenwick save share (xFSv%) of his profession at 93.65% (the save parentage {that a} goalie ought to have with a league-average efficiency given the standard of possibilities confronted, through Blueshirts Breakaway). At his finest, Vasilevskiy has an anticipated Fenwick save share of roughly 95%.
Vasilevskiy additionally had the second-worst efficiency in Evolving Hockey’s objectives saved above anticipated (GSAx) mannequin (the golden stat for goaltenders). He posted a -7.64 objectives saved above anticipated final season, his lowest complete on this metric since he was 22 years outdated in 2016-17. Coming off the three finest seasons of his profession on this class, Vasilevskiy averaged over 13 objectives saved above anticipated from 2021-23. That 20-goal hole could be very disappointing for an elite goaltender.
Contextualizing Vasilevskiy’s Profession-Low Efficiency
Whereas Vasilevskiy’s numbers dipped final season, so did the Lightning’s crew protection. Since he joined the crew in 2014-15, the Lightning recorded one in all their worst defensive seasons of the final decade, surrendering 2.87 objectives in opposition to per 60 (GA/60) at 5-on-5. For context, their subsequent highest charge was 2.46 objectives in opposition to per 60 in 2022-23. The Lightning didn’t permit a loopy quantity of pictures in opposition to by way of amount, however the crew allowed Vasilevskiy to face too many high-danger, high quality pictures. Tampa Bay’s 2.59 anticipated objectives in opposition to per 60 (xGA/60) was the second-worst charge of the final decade.
Associated: Tampa Bay Lightning’s 2023-24 Participant Grades: Andrei Vasilevskiy
Provided that Vasilevskiy missed coaching camp and the Lightning had a poor defensive efficiency, there’s a purpose for his career-worst efficiency in 2023-24. He’ll flip 30 on the finish of July, so he’s getting up there, however Vasilevskiy nonetheless has a number of good seasons left in him, and by changing Steven Stamkos with Jake Guentzel, the crew has prolonged their Cup window within the quick time period.
Vasilevskiy is Due for Enchancment Subsequent Season
The Lightning made loads of adjustments this low season to deal with their back-to-back first-round exits. On the offensive facet, Guetnzel will assist the Lightning drive play and keep possession at 5-on-5. As well as, the crew introduced again one in all their defensive studs from the Stanley Cup crew, Ryan McDonagh. Following a career-worst season from Erik Cernak, the Lightning hope his outdated protection companion will rejuvenate his profession.
Administration additionally traded offensive-minded defender Mikhail Sergachev for one who performed robust minutes in opposition to elite competitors final season in J.J. Moser. The 24-year-old is accountable and may defend the push, permitting gamers like Victor Hedman to become involved offensively. In brief, these strikes will enhance the Lightning’s crew protection and 5-on-5 play and assist Vasilevskiy to a bounce-back season.
Stats courtesy of EvolvingHockey
