Hey there, and welcome to a section that I’m hoping to show right into a recurring function. Final week, I began delving into the person event-level predictions constructed into our pitch grading mannequin, PitchingBot. I made some broad generalizations concerning the sorts of pitches more than likely to be hit for residence runs after which checked out which pitchers threw them most frequently. I gathered some details about these pitches (fastballs, poorly situated, in hitter-friendly counts however not 3-0), and tried to determine what that meant for residence run charge.
Extra particularly, it’s enjoyable to have a look at these dangerous pitches, and it’s enjoyable for me to see how few of them really end in homers. The 50 pitches more than likely to be hit for a house run surrendered one homer mixed. The highest 100 resulted in solely three homers, whereas the subsequent 100 resulted in six homers. There’s a ton of variability, however at its core, baseball continues to be a sport of failure – even when a pitcher does the worst factor they presumably can, hitters largely don’t punish them.
To that finish, I’m going to strive a brand new weekly roundup: varied meatball-related objects that present who’s been distinctive in a single path or one other over the previous week. On condition that it’s largely an inventory of issues with out a ton of research needed, I’m going to start out out by making an attempt so as to add it on prime of my regular schedule, and I’ll additionally use this to replace a few of my favourite junk stats (whomps per whiff, Kimbrels, and so forth.). If it’s widespread, nice! If not, hey, it’s a protracted baseball season and it’s important to preserve making an attempt issues. Anyway, let’s get going.
Meatball of the Week
We have now to cease assembly like this, Randy. Once I topped a single pitch the meatball of the yr final week, Randy Arozarena was the batter who acquired that most-smashable providing, and he took it. This week, he hacked at Beau Brieske’s 3-1 providing, however might solely foul it off.
A fast examine on why the mannequin thought that pitch was so smashable: a mixture of depend, velocity, location, and form. Brieske’s fastball is a bit higher than common, however this explicit one wasn’t. For no matter purpose – perhaps he was guiding it in because of the depend, perhaps he simply didn’t execute his pitch – it was 3.5 mph slower than his common fastball. It got here throughout a hitter’s depend and was thrown to a hittable location with out a bizarre or outstanding form. That’s the recipe for a crushable pitch, even when Arozarena couldn’t do something with it.
Italian Grandmother Award for Most Meatballs Served
Valente Bellozo, Miami Marlins
This class is easy: Each week, the Italian Grandmother Award goes to the participant who threw probably the most meatballs over the earlier seven days. Valente Bellozo goes to be a daily contender for this honor as a result of he throws a fastball that tops out within the decrease 90s and averages 89.7 mph. He throws that fastball fairly often, and will get by on tender contact because of his impeccable command. Nevertheless, a variety of his fastballs additionally seem like this:
Bellozo has been glorious in his rookie yr; by means of six begins, he has a 2.45 ERA and three.53 FIP. However the good instances most likely received’t final. He simply received completed posting a 5.87 FIP in Triple-Some time permitting 1.82 homers per 9 innings. He gave up three warning observe blasts to middle discipline and a homer this week whereas placing out eight over two begins. The Marlins are determined for pitching in the mean time and Bellozo is succeeding, so I’m certain he’ll get tons of rope. However if you happen to’re searching for the more than likely pitcher to have a real blow-up begin, he’d be my decide proper now.
Wholesome Eating regimen Award for Most Pitches With out a Meatball
Pablo López, Minnesota Twins
Nothing actually to see right here. Pablo López made two begins and didn’t throw a single pitch that PitchingBot thought was 3% more likely to flip into a house run. He did give one up, however it was to Bobby Witt Jr., and generally you simply get crushed by a celebrity. Honorable point out to Logan Webb, who made just one begin final week (104 pitches) and continued to stymie hitters. He’ll function in a while the season-long replace; for now, let’s simply say that Webb doesn’t make many errors.
Now, a tiny little bit of analysis to additional clarify why I’m these pitches. First, the meatballs this week received crushed. There have been 502 pitches that crossed the three% homer probability threshold, and batters hit 21 residence runs towards them, 4.2% of the time. The mannequin would have predicted 18 homers, so we’re operating barely sizzling. Just about any manner you slice it, this week’s homers outstripped their meatball likelihood, which is perhaps a product of the time of yr as a lot as anything. I’ll control that because the season wears on.
It appears fairly clear that meatball charges don’t correlate overly properly with single-game outcomes. Bellozo was nice in his two begins final week regardless of lobbing 80-handle fastballs in there. George Kirby didn’t throw a single pitch that the mannequin categorized as a meatball, and he gave up 4 homers and eight earned runs.
Season-Lengthy Meatball Standouts
Amongst pitchers who’ve thrown 1,000 whole pitches within the majors this yr, Joey Estes stands alone with 80 meatballs on only one,369 pitches, a 5.8% charge. Webb is on the opposite finish of the spectrum with solely 5 meatballs out of two,543 pitches, and consider it or not, Blake Snell is second with solely three meatballs in 1,188 pitches. Snell’s extra of a walks man than a homers man, so even together with his abysmal begin to the season, he’s giving up solely 0.71 residence runs per 9 innings.
Whomps per Whiff Leaders
This statistic does a reasonably good job of highlighting nice hitters, ones who mix energy with a eager sense of the strike zone. It’s additionally pretty results-oriented; you possibly can’t get on the checklist with out barreling up a ton of balls, and if you happen to’re hitting a ton of barrels, you’re virtually definitely hitting for energy. So uh, yeah, this checklist is made up of all good hitters having good seasons bar one man:
Whomps per Whiff Leaders, 2024
Stephenson hasn’t been a catastrophe or something, he’s simply not on anybody else right here’s degree. General, posting a excessive whomps per whiff means you’re a superb hitter. Right here’s the total leaderboard in your perusal.
Kimbrels Leaderboard
A Kimbrel is an look with a unfavorable FIP; in different phrases, an look when the pitcher strikes out no less than 1.5 batters per inning with out permitting any walks, HBPs, or residence runs. It’s fairly shut to only being an inventory of fine relievers, however the prime three are shocking:
Kimbrel Leaderboard, 2024
Like WPW, Kimbrels largely let you know what you already know: These pitchers are good. Mason Miller is clearly on there. Emmanuel Clase isn’t far exterior the highest 10, and the stat undersells Clase as a result of he additionally permits extraordinarily weak contact. Right here’s the entire checklist if you happen to really feel like searching it.
That’s this week in meatballs, whomps per whiff, and Kimbrels. I hope you loved this semi-rigorous, GIF-heavy, and information-dense roundup of the bizarre statistics in baseball I’m maintaining a tally of.
