Antoine Dupont isn’t (but) rugby’s best scrumhalf and will not ever be.
Allow us to first burn the straw males earlier than we discuss in regards to the goats.
1. To be a GOAT (best of all time) in your place, should your crew win the World Cup?
Not essentially, however it may matter relying on who you play for.
In an attritional massive crew sport with little or no parity past the highest 4 or 5 groups, profitable a once-every-four-year knockout cup can’t be an exclusionary issue to select an all-time crew.
Particular person brilliance can supersede crew outcomes. One can think about Tongans who might be one of the best ever of their place with none hope of lifting the William Webb Ellis trophy, until they play in international locations of their adoption, and even then, All Black legend Jonah Lomu is within the dialog regardless of Joel Stransky’s drop purpose.
And but, for GOAT candidates from international locations like New Zealand, South Africa, France and England, who routinely make it to the semi-finals and go into each Cup touted as having an opportunity, we do look intently at how the participant carried out when all of the chips have been on the desk. Antoine Dupont took the sphere in Saint-Denis exterior Paris final 12 months, main a crew which was seen as pre-Cup favourites, and there could by no means have been a louder, drunker, extra sure crowd in France.
Way over any match Toulouse ever performed, stocking itself with a Jack Willis or Blair Kinghorn to fill a spot, it’s this kind of knockout fixture towards an eventual champion, which reveals most about Dupont’s credentials as a GOAT or a cabrito, the child goat which tastes so good roasted, however isn’t but a correct goat.
2. It’s inconceivable to match eras and positions.
It’s troublesome however inconceivable to not attempt to evaluate.
Period comparability is definitely much less of a difficulty than positional issues.
Since we first stood up on the savannah or the steppes and ran, we now have needed to know who’s finest. The quickest: we decide a spot, and we all know. The strongest: raise that log and throw it. Who has probably the most stamina? Run to Marathon should you can.
What about one of the best general athlete? The decathlon served this objective, with its extensive calls for of shotput and excessive bounce and the mile. As soon as upon a time this was my occasion however the pole vault and I by no means grew to become associates, so I used to be extra a lamb than a goat.
Rugby has its main backs and dominant forwards in every period, simply as in any sport. If the proportion of members is comparable, we are able to assume one of the best in any decade would have discovered a technique to be one of the best in a later decade, regardless of advances in vitamin, gear, or tactical acumen. Thus, when the footage of Bobby Jones’ swing is utilized to fashionable golf gear, we see he would have executed nicely immediately, along with his champion mindset fixed.
We are able to safely assume gamers like Lomu, Dan Carter, John Eales or Joost van der Westhuizen, Serge Blanco, Martin Johnson, or Danie Gerber would have discovered a technique to win their particular person contests in any period, with the one asterisk being that if an ever-higher portion of humanity performs a recreation, the standard possible rises within the median and on the high.
However how do you evaluate large Eben Etzebeth to little Dupont? Each play above and past their core roles: Etzebeth chases kicks, can defend in wider channels, leads pods, and carries like an 8. Dupont takes the ball into contact, fends bigger defenders, will get over the ball, and goes for pilfers.
Eben Etzebeth. (Picture by Mike Hewitt/Getty Photos)
In boxing, we now have the pound-for-pound rating. In rugby, we are able to take a look at affect on a recreation. Within the Paris quarterfinal, approaching the heels of a less-than-dominant Six Nations, which nonetheless looms as the best obstacle to Dupont’s ascendancy, Etzebeth dueled Dupont, with supporting actors Peto Mauvaka, Damian de Allende, Cheslin Kolbe, Pieter-Steph du Toit and Cyril Baille.
The ultimate rating of 29-28 isn’t dispositive of Dupont’s claims to superiority over Etzebeth (and even the Nelspruit Asterix, Faf de Klerk, he who stripped the ball to permit Etzebeth and his mates to boost their arms in triumph as Kurt-Lee Arendse thumped the ball into contact, nearly falconing Handre Pollard) however the best way Dupont’s crew misplaced crucial Check of his profession does matter.
(Picture by Hannah Peters/Getty Photos)
Dupont was not one of the best participant on the pitch within the match which mattered most; he was outplayed immediately and not directly by one other GOAT candidate: Etzebeth (122 caps as a Bok lock, the place South Africa tends to provide one of the best and most of, a three-time Cup starter with worst final result a 2-point loss in a semi to top-of-the-line All Black groups of all time, a back-to-back winner, Most worthy ahead in a forward-orientated champion, an all-pitch participant, and constant over twice the time as Dupont).
Because the Guardian put it: “Etzebeth was a monstrous presence within the darkened recesses and across the fringes, terrorising Antoine Dupont, whose scrum cap may simply as simply have been worn to dam out the glowering Etzebeth’s presence because it was to guard his cheekbone.”
Certainly, Etzebeth obliterated Charles Ollivon, saved the sport with a scoop on the wing, pinned Mauvaka, jarred the ball from Dupont to arrange Kolbe’s strive, monstered the monster Uini Atonio, held up a strive, carried three Frenchmen over the to attain a attempt to acquire the lead, jackalled, chased a field at 79 minutes when Dupont had slowed to a standstill, and defended third channel on the finish.
Dupont on that day was the cabrito, the child goat, with ‘solely’ 50 or so caps.
4 instances within the final stanza he stood, with out solutions or questions, both shoveling or placing in a futile kick or getting caught behind the road. Are you able to think about Dan Carter fading like that?
He wanted to get replaced with ten minutes to go; Etzebeth regarded like he might have executed one other 20 and was filled with the sort of berserker fury the true greats have on the large stage.
We are able to evaluate positions in titanic matches like this, however a GOAT is listed by place solely.
So even when he’s clearly not the one GOAT at Check degree (but, or ever) we should ask if Dupont is one of the best scrumhalf now (after which, ever).
3. Has Dupont even settled his Northern Hemisphere superiority but?
The strawman right here is that Dupont will get to fit in above Aaron Smith earlier than he has quashed the claims of Jamison Gibson-Park. The straw on this element is all about highlights.
Gibson-Park isn’t as a lot of a human spotlight reel as Dupont, however rugby is much less conducive to focus on calibration than, for instance, basketball.
Errors, and little destructive elements like a slower or much less correct go from the bottom, counteract a number of good actions, and knock on results to teammates.
Take the 2024 Champions Cup closing. Gibson-Park gained his private duel with Dupont within the first 80 minutes; with a transparent edge within the first forty. Even on the finish, Dupont was pressured to observe Ciaran Frawley take a shot for the win, and (with none fault by the 2 good scrumhalves) had it gone the best way of his Durban droppie, we might have singing the praises of the opposite 9.
That is related. The later feats of Dupont relied on a second Frawley miss and got here on the heels of a deep Toulouse pack taking management over the spent Dubliners, however that is the place context can inform us. Gibson-Park was one Frawley inch from being the headline 9 regardless of the pack depth benefit of Toulouse.
Was that an outlier?
No.
Within the extra even comparability of the Six Nations, the place Dupont should play behind a pack which is not any deeper than Eire’s Munster-reinforced one, France has solely gained the title as soon as since 2017.
Antoine Dupont was unimaginable in Toulouse’s enormous win over Bordeaux to say the French High 14 in Marseille. Picture: High 14, Twitter
Why ding Dupont for that? Properly, he’s their most influential participant, and it’s honest so as to add this to the folkloric goat-herding chat. It isn’t simply that France is one for eight. It’s that Gibson-Park was one of the vital beneficial gamers within the Irish triumphs of 2023 and 2024 and outplayed Dupont.
Dupont is an impressive rugby participant, a type of flank-half, who makes up for much less zip in his go along with his all-court acumen and rugged hearth. However in a decent Check match the much less sensational abilities of Gibson-Park may be an excellent higher asset: to a global win-loss document. These half-seconds from ruck to ruck, the flexibility to fireside to second channel with out loft, heading in the right direction, and releasing up a charging twelve on time: the 2 appear on par.
Is Dupont higher at profitable Check matches than Gibson-Park? Higher at serving to, guiding, directing, securing, or facilitating others to win Six Nations than the little, quiet Irish scrumhalf? Unclear.
Over time, Dupont is certain to attain extra factors and present up in additional spotlight packages, however will he safe his nation extra Six Nations trophies, or ever definitively outplay Gibson-Park in a Check? That is but to be decided.
4. Earlier than we discuss Joost or Gregan or Fourie or varied Welsh wizards, what about Aaron?
Aaron Smith is a cheerful fellow. He likes to say Dupont is one of the best participant on the earth, however that isn’t how being one of the best works, actually. It is only one nugget within the comfortable meal of GOAT discuss.
Smith has spent most of his profession taking part in for a provincial crew which was the weakest in his land: the Highlanders (185 appearances). We don’t know how glittering his membership profession might need been had he been a Crusader (or a Toulouse or Leinster scrumhalf) for a decade, however it’s uncertain he would have damage any crew he performed for due to his superpower: the Move.
Scrumhalves do one factor greater than some other factor: go the ball.
Watch Smith’s go and you realize: that is how a go is supposed to look. From the very first, as he led the New Zealand Maori to upsets over Eire and England in 2010, it was this supreme ability he demonstrated and, anticipate it, has by no means been equaled within the 14 years since.
Regardless of taking part in for the New Zealand membership equal of Lyon or Connacht, when eligible, he was the primary title written down for the All Blacks by each coach since 2012. As a result of he can hit a flea on the fern on the black jersey at tempo with secure shoulders and no hitch and no trace of wobble.
We reward Carter and rightfully so, however he had a accomplice in crime, and what a easy thief of time was Smith and his bullet go, which might skip Sonny Invoice Williams or Ma’a Nonu and hit his mate Conrad Smith however look simply the identical as if he went shortside to Kieran Learn or Jerome Kaino. While his go has no wiggle, he makes it simple to catch, as a result of it tilts upward.
Aaron Smith. (Picture by Michael Steele – World Rugby/World Rugby through Getty Photos)
Need to rank a scrumhalf? Take a look at comparative knock-ons at Check degree from the ruck go.
At 28 he had 50 All Black caps (and a World Cup gold medal). He by no means dabbled in Sevens however are you able to think about him taking part in that spacious recreation along with his forty metre clay pigeon weapon?
By 2018, Smith was probably the most capped scrumhalf in New Zealand historical past, anchoring what has justly been seen by most observers as one of many best vintages (2013-2018) of All Blacks ever, staving off the ferocious problem of formidable variations of Lions and Boks of that point, and a six-time winner of The Rugby Championship, constructed largely on fast ruck ball and its cousin: a quick correct go to first receiver.
He has a greater than 70 cap hole on Dupont, confirmed longevity (have been he not in Japan, certainly he would nonetheless be within the image) and one of the best go we now have seen within the fashionable recreation not performed in mud.
France has gained two of the final dozen matches towards the All Blacks, throughout the Smith period, with Dupont having a few latest wins to boast of, however the head-to-head comparability of those two warrior-nines is definitely not definitively in favour of the Frenchman in an general profession sense.
Conclusion
If we have been deciding on a GOAT XV, it might be extremely suspect for present Check gamers to take half of the positions. Allow us to cap that at seven, then: solely seven or much less present gamers needs to be in any dialog for all-time finest at their place, or we’re clearly affected by a terminal case of recentism.
Can we wash away the tides of instances previous, forgetting the McCaws and O’Driscolls so simply?
Of the seven or so present GOAT candidates, a whole profession is an important element. Thus, it’s troublesome to let a participant like Dupont into the salon with half or a 3rd of the caps of George Gregan, Sam Whitelock, Etzebeth, Victor Matfield, Philippe Sella, Learn, McCaw, Bryan Habana, Jason Leonard or Carter.
That is good for Dupont, as a result of if we stopped the measurements proper now, he’s solely within the dialog for finest Six Nations scrumhalves on this decade up towards Gibson-Park and that debate isn’t but closed.
As for finest scrumhalf of the final twenty years, Smith and Fourie du Preez have extra weighty claims as one of the best passer and finest kicker and finest generals and winners. Return a couple of extra years and Gregan, van der Westhuizen and others demand our consideration.
Give Dupont time.
He has made an excellent begin to the primary half of his profession. He’ll little doubt share this sentiment: there’s little extra to show at membership degree besides to extra definitively outplay Gibson-Park, however win greater than half of the Six Nations on provide with higher recreation administration and enhancing these round him, and get to the top (win or lose, however not standing nonetheless waving arms on the finish and suggesting a referee was lower than it, while being outplayed by the opposition GOAT) in Australia in 2027.
Then he’ll be a part of the GOAT dialog for one place.
We go from there.