As soon as the World Sequence wraps up, groups and gamers may have 5 days to resolve on choices, opt-outs and qualifying provides. One of many extra attention-grabbing circumstances is third baseman Eugenio Suárez. The Diamondbacks can retain him through a $15MM membership choice or go for a $2MM buyout as a substitute.
There was a time just a few months in the past when it appeared a lock that the Snakes would take the buyout and let Geno go. However after a torrid second half, it might now be stunning in the event that they didn’t decide up the choice.
Suárez has been a really streaky participant in his profession general and his lopsided 2024 season was a microcosm of that. From 2017 to 2019, he hit .271/.364/.521 for a wRC+ of 127 with the Reds. That 2019 season noticed him hit 49 lengthy balls, however it’s now established that there was a juiced ball that season, making for some wonky dwelling run totals across the league. His strikeout charge ticked as much as 28.5% that 12 months after being within the 23-25% vary in prior seasons.
The strikeouts continued into subsequent seasons, resulting in a tough patch for him. He struck out 29.6% of the time over 2020 and 2021, producing a .199/.293/.440 batting line and 89 wRC+. His was then flipped to the Mariners in a transfer that was largely seen because the M’s taking over his wage as a method of buying Jesse Winker.
However Suárez went on to have an enormous bounceback season in Seattle, hitting 31 dwelling runs in 2022 and slashing .236/.332/.459 for a 132 wRC+. His dwelling run whole dipped to 22 final 12 months however his .232/.323/.391 line nonetheless led to a 104 wRC+, a bit above common. He was putting out over 30% of the time however nonetheless proving to be helpful general. He additionally improved his glovework whereas with the Mariners. Defensive Runs Saved nonetheless seen him as a subpar defender at third however his marks in 2022-23 have been higher than throughout time in Cincinnati. Outs Above Common had lengthy seen him round common however gave him an enormous +12 grade in 2023.
It was then that the Diamondbacks acquired him, sending pitcher Carlos Vargas and catcher Seby Zavala to the Mariners in November of final 12 months. At the moment, Suárez had one assured 12 months left on his contract. He was going to make $11MM in 2024 with the aforementioned membership choice was there as effectively.
His ’24 marketing campaign finally mirrored the up-and-down nature of his profession general. He was brutal within the first half, to the purpose that there have been rumors by early June of the membership hoping for a commerce. A couple of days later, supervisor Torey Lovullo admitted that Suárez was going to lose some enjoying time to infielder Blaze Alexander. On the finish of June, Suárez was sitting on a line of .196/.279/.312, a 29.2% strikeout charge and 66 wRC+.
However the calendar flipped to July and Suárez caught fireplace, one thing that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored a month in the past. Within the last three months of the season, Suárez struck out at a 25.8% clip, nonetheless above league common however an enchancment for him. He hit 24 dwelling runs and slashed .312/.357/.617 for a 162 wRC+. He was one of many ten finest certified hitters within the majors in that stretch.
Although he’s accomplished it with loads of strikeouts and a few tough patches, Suárez has managed to be a strong contributor for 3 straight seasons now. FanGraphs has credited him with between 3.5 and 4.3 wins above alternative in every of the three most up-to-date campaigns. Regardless of his terrible first half in 2024, he nonetheless bought his fWAR whole to three.8 by season’s finish.
A internet $13MM choice on a participant who can produce like that ought to be a simple name, however there’s a minimum of an argument for the Diamondbacks stepping into a unique path. Given the up-and-down nature of Suárez’s profession and most up-to-date season, maybe the Snakes wish to soar off the rollercoaster whereas they’ve an opportunity. Suárez is now 33 years previous, turning 34 subsequent July, and there must come a time the place he can’t maintain strolling this tightrope.
The Diamondbacks might desire to show third base over to another person throughout the group. That somebody was Alexander earlier this 12 months however he slumped as Suárez surged and ended up with a .247/.321/.343 line and 88 wRC+ in 2024. He additionally struck out at a Suárezian 30.7% charge in 51 Triple-A video games whereas producing league-average offense at that stage, making him a dangerous guess as an on a regular basis MLB third baseman subsequent 12 months.
There’s additionally Jordan Lawlar, who is taken into account one of many prime prospects within the league. He has largely performed shortstop in his profession however has dabbled at third base these days, maybe as a result of Snakes having Geraldo Perdomo at quick. Lawlar has climbed the minor league ladder and collected a small quantity of main league enjoying time, so maybe they may let him take over the recent nook.
Nonetheless, that was additionally the case a 12 months in the past. Lawlar reached the majors late in 2023 however struggled badly. He hit .129/.206/.129 in his first 14 massive league video games. The Diamondbacks clearly weren’t prepared at hand him a serious league job, which is why they went out and traded for Suárez.
In 2024, Lawlar might have maybe earned the gig whereas Suárez was struggling however accidents bought in the way in which. Lawlar ruptured the ulnar collateral ligament in his proper thumb throughout spring coaching, requiring surgical procedure. That saved him out of motion till Could, however then hamstring accidents held him again in the summertime. He solely performed 23 minor league video games this 12 months round these harm points and didn’t play within the majors.
That leaves the Snakes in the identical place with Lawlar as they have been one 12 months in the past. He’s absolutely nonetheless seen as a key a part of their future however hasn’t but confirmed himself within the majors. One 12 months in the past, the membership determined they wanted a extra established choice at third and went with Suárez.
Maybe they are going to resolve to take the identical method in 2025, having Suárez at third as a placeholder for Lawlar’s eventual arrival. They may look to non-Suárez choices for that job if they need, however the free agent market doesn’t have a solution for them. Of the out there third basemen, Alex Bregman is the clear prime choice. After Bregman, the highest choices for the recent nook are extra bench/utility varieties like Paul DeJong, Enrique Hernández and Gio Urshela. On the commerce market, the Cardinals would possibly make Nolan Arenado out there of their reset 12 months however he has a full no-trade clause, complicating that scenario.
The Diamondbacks gained’t be probably the most logical touchdown spot for Bregman in the event that they view Lawlar as their future third baseman. Maybe they need Lawlar to supplant Perdomo at quick, with the latter transferring to second base and bumping Ketel Marte into a reasonably common designated hitter. Even so, they don’t normally win the bidding on prime free brokers so it’s unlikely Bregman could be a part of such a plan.
That weak marketplace for third baseman might give Suárez additional attraction as a commerce candidate, so maybe the Snakes will contemplate making him out there, both earlier than or after selecting up the choice. Golf equipment with borderline choices usually look into making offers as the choice second arrives. Final November, the Brewers traded Mark Canha to the Tigers just a few days earlier than his choice choice was due, with Detroit selecting up the choice just a few days after buying him.
Certainly there might be some membership that misses out on Bregman and appears for backup plans, which might result in them fielding some calls on Suárez. However the tepid market cuts each methods, because the Diamondbacks would then be restricted in what they may do to exchange Suárez, that means they’d be placing a variety of religion in Lawlar or Alexander stepping up and taking the job.
There are arguments for every path. Suárez is likely to be probably the most simple reply at third base for the subsequent 12 months, giving attraction to easily sticking with him. However alternatively, slicing ties from a dangerous and streaky participant who’s coming into his mid-30s additionally has attraction, as they have been making an attempt to commerce him or bench him as of some months in the past and that cash could possibly be redirected to a different a part of the roster. Maybe the commerce market might assist the membership discover an improve whereas additionally saving a couple of dollars for different strikes.
What do you suppose the Snakes ought to do? Have your say within the ballot under!