The Cubs’ focus this offseason has reportedly been on pitching, and whereas Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic stories that’s very a lot nonetheless the case, he additionally throws some chilly water on the thought of Chicago making a significant strike in free company. Sharma’s colleague, Patrick Mooney, reported lower than three weeks in the past that the Cubs deliberate to “aggressively” pursue starters who may assist close to the highest finish of the rotation, however Sharma now writes that the “high tier of the beginning pitching market has been dominated out.” That may seemingly take away the Cubs from the operating for Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell and Max Fried, on the very least.
It’s the most recent sign of a measured offseason strategy, even at a time when the Cubs’ division seems ripe for the taking. The Cardinals are scaling again payroll and focusing extra on participant improvement in 2025 than on placing a playoff-caliber roster on the sector. The Brewers, one yr after buying and selling Burnes, now appear more likely to lose Willy Adames in free company — and so they may additionally commerce nearer Devin Williams. The Pirates and Reds have but to interrupt out as perennial contenders within the Central. Logically talking, the deep-pocketed Cubs may take an aggressive stance and place themselves properly in a wide-open division area.
For now, it appears they’ll store primarily within the second and third tiers of the rotation market. Sharma factors out that the Cubs have usually shied away from starters who’ve been hooked up to qualifying gives, although it’s price noting that the Cubs had been prepared to half with draft picks and worldwide funds with a view to signal Dansby Swanson after he rejected a qualifying provide. They technically signed Cody Bellinger after he rejected a QO … although that supply got here from the Cubs themselves, in order that they had been actually solely “forfeiting” the theoretical comp choose they’d have acquired if he signed elsewhere.
Assuming the Burnes/Snell/Fried trio isn’t being thought of by president of baseball ops Jed Hoyer and his workers, the Cubs will likely be trying on the subsequent tier, with Jack Flaherty, Sean Manaea, Yusei Kikuchi, Nathan Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta and Luis Severino among the many choices. Of that group, Manaea, Pivetta and Severino rejected QOs and would price the Cubs their second-highest choose and $500K of worldwide house of their 2025 draft pool.
There are actually names in that bunch who’d characterize upgrades over incumbent starters at Wrigley Area. Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga type a pleasant one-two punch atop the in-house rotation, and the Cubs will comply with them with veteran Jameson Taillon and younger Javier Assad. Candidates for the fifth spot embrace Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Hayden Wesneski and high prospect Cade Horton. It’s a pleasant bunch of arms, however there’s some uncertainty in not less than the fifth spot, if not the fourth. Assad posted a strong 3.79 ERA in 29 begins however did so with worse-than-average strikeout, stroll and home-run charges. Metrics like FIP (4.64) and SIERA (4.72) are far much less bullish than his earned run common.
Wanting on the group’s payroll, the Cubs ought to have some spending room. RosterResource tasks a $180MM payroll in the mean time — $34MM shy of final yr’s Opening Day mark. That features a full arbitration class that would embrace some non-tender candidates (e.g. Nick Madrigal, Julian Merryweather).
The Cubs may additionally discover different methods to drop their payroll additional. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote yesterday that the group might be seeking to transfer Bellinger, although there are many roadblocks to doing so. Bellinger is owed a $27.5MM wage in 2025 and a $5MM buyout on a 2026 participant choice. If he performs properly for a season, the buying group would successfully be getting Bellinger at $32.5MM. That’s a hefty price ticket typically and significantly for the 2024 model of Bellinger. Whereas he performed at an especially excessive stage in 2023, Bellinger was extra of an above-average common in 2024. An absence of influence left-handed bats and viable middle fielders may nonetheless lead a group to think about the likelihood, it’s arduous to think about a group giving a significant return and taking over the rest/majority of Bellinger’s wage.
Nonetheless, shifting Bellinger can also be one of many solely methods for the Cubs to plausibly pursue upgrades to the on a regular basis lineup in 2025. As we famous when itemizing Bellinger close to the again of our record of offseason commerce candidates, the Cubs’ roster is already crammed with costly veterans who’ve no-trade clauses (Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki) or typically productive and inexpensive youthful gamers like Michael Busch, Isaac Paredes and Pete Crow-Armstrong. Nico Hoerner may’ve been a commerce candidate and will nonetheless be — however he additionally underwent flexor tendon surgical procedure one month in the past. Clearly, that cuts down on his enchantment. The Cubs have a transparent opening for an improve at catcher, however the free agent market gives little in the way in which of significant assist there.
All of these challenges to upgrading the lineup make a notable splash on the pitching facet of issues really feel extra logical, however it appears the Cubs don’t really feel equally — not less than not with regard to free agent starters. There are upgrades available on the bullpen market, in fact, however the Cubs haven’t given out a multi-year deal to a reliever since Craig Kimbrel in 2019. Final winter’s $9MM assure to Hector Neris was the most important bullpen expenditure the Cubs have made since signing Kimbrel.
It’s attainable the Cubs may simply look to the commerce marketplace for a lot of their offseason dealing. The Cubs have a deep farm system with a number of high prospects whose path to a daily position at Wrigley is blocked. There aren’t, nevertheless, many influence arms or high-profile arms anticipated to be obtainable. Crosstown ace Garrett Crochet headlines the offseason class of commerce candidates, however demand for him will likely be fierce and trades of significance between the 2 Chicago golf equipment, whereas not unprecedented (Jose Quintana, Craig Kimbrel), additionally aren’t frequent.
There most likely are nonetheless further trades on the horizon for the Cubs. Sharma writes that this week’s acquisitions of reliever Eli Morgan from the Guardians and backup catcher Matt Thaiss from the Angels don’t imply the Cubs are content material in these areas. They’ll proceed to discover each free company and trades for assist in these parts of the roster. But when pitching assist stays their focus and so they’re unwilling to buy within the high-rent district for starters, the Cubs might want to both break custom with their free agent bullpen targets, get inventive on the commerce market, be content material to handle the center ranks of the beginning workers — or a mix of all of the above.