Because the 2024-25 season nears, every NHL crew’s roster and targets have turn out to be clear. Following a 2023 President’s Trophy win and Spherical 3 loss to the Stanley Cup-winning Florida Panthers, the New York Rangers enter a Cup-or-Bust season. Whereas the New York Islanders snuck their approach into the 2024 Playoffs and fell in Spherical 1 to the Carolina Hurricanes, their mindset is analogous.
Evaluating Ahead Cores
Final season, the Rangers offense shined, ending seventh within the league in scoring with 278 targets. The Islanders struggled with simply 245 targets, good for twenty second within the league. Nonetheless, the 2 groups have been useless even at even power scoring, coming in at 166 targets every, good for T-Nineteenth within the league.
Heading into the 2024-25 season, neither crew’s ahead core has modified a lot. The Rangers’ main modifications have been the addition of Reilly Smith and the departure of Alex Wennberg, Jack Roslovic, and Barclay Goodrow. The New York Islanders solely misplaced Mat Martin and Cal Clutterbuck as they introduced in Maxim Tsyplakov and Anthony Duclair.
NHL.com has projected every crew’s lineup for this season. Here’s what I’ll base my comparability on:
Rangers Forwards:
Chris Kreider — Mika Zibanejad — Reilly Smith
Artemi Panarin — Vincent Trocheck — Alexis Lafreniere
Will Cuylle — Filip Chytil — Kaapo Kakko
Jimmy Vesey — Sam Carrick — Matt Rempe
Islanders Forwards:
Anthony Duclair — Bo Horvat — Mat Barzal
Maxim Tsyplakov— Brock Nelson — Kyle Palmieri
Anders Lee — Jean-Gabriel Pageau — Pierre Engvall
Kyle MacLean — Casey Cizikas — Hudson Fasching
Final season, the Islanders’ prime line of Lee-Horvat-Barzal completed with a 57.7 anticipated targets proportion (xG%) and 57.1 targets proportion (G%), in line with MoneyPuck. Including Duclair, whose velocity and scoring prowess will solely enhance the road’s manufacturing, supplies no motive to consider the road regress. The Rangers’ prime line was underwhelming, largely because of the battle to discover a constant proper wing. With Kakko on the primary line, it had a 51.8 xG%. With Wheeler, a 46.5 xG%. Smith is getting into his first season with the Rangers, so his match is unclear. Till he reveals he’s the answer, the Islanders’ first line comes out on prime.
The Islanders had one of many strongest second traces final season, ending with a 55.3 xG% and 56.1 G%. Nonetheless, that’s with Palmieri having a profession season, so even with the addition of Tsyplakov, the road is certain to regress. Whereas Panarin is getting into his age-33 season, Trochek and Lafreniere are on the rise, as evidenced by their 2024 Playoff performances. The Panarin-Trochek-Lafreniere line completed with a 55.6 xG% and 58.1 G% final season, main the way in which for the Rangers to take the higher second line for 2024-25.
Associated: Islanders’ Maxim Tsyplakov’s Distinctive Skillset Ought to Bode Nicely On Lengthy Island
Evaluating the Islanders and Rangers’ third traces is a really tough activity. Every crew has a number of new faces projected to hitch the road this season. For the Islanders, it’s going to finally come right down to Lee’s potential to maintain up with Pageau and Engvall’s velocity. For the Rangers, Cuylle constructing on final season’s success and Chytil recovering from his accidents will likely be pivotal. Till every line hits the ice, I’m going to say they’re comparatively equal, with the Rangers’ third line having the next upside however a decrease flooring.
Every crew’s fourth line is fairly boring, with the Islanders throwing collectively three defensive-oriented forwards. The important thing to the success of the road this season will likely be getting any offensive manufacturing. It doesn’t have to be a lot, but when every ahead can produce near 10 targets, head coach Patrick Roy will likely be happy. The Rangers have a couple of query marks, like Rempe’s skating potential and Carrick’s self-discipline. If the chemistry works, it has the potential to be one of many stronger fourth traces within the NHL. Nonetheless, given a lot uncertainty, the Islanders get the sting right here.
Total, I might nonetheless lean in direction of the Rangers. Whereas the Islanders could have a slight benefit on the primary and fourth traces, the Rangers’ second line is dominant, and their backside six has way more potential than the Islanders’. Though the hole between the 2 ahead teams may be narrower than followers count on, the Rangers ought to nonetheless be thought to be the stronger ahead core on this comparability.
Evaluating Protection Cores
The Rangers misplaced Erik Gustafsson to the Detroit Purple Wings in free company however are hopeful Zac Jones can take the leap to the NHL full-time this season. The Islanders’ solely main defensive change was the lack of Sebastian Aho to the Pittsburgh Penguins, however the return of Adam Pelech, Ryan Pulock, and Scott Mayfield to full well being will supply a much-needed increase to the crew.
NHL.com has projected every crew’s lineup for this season. Here’s what I’ll base my comparability on:
Rangers Defenseman:
Ryan Lindgren — Adam Fox
Okay’Andre Miller — Braden Schneider
Zac Jones — Jacob Trouba
Islanders Defenseman:
Alexander Romanov — Noah Dobson
Adam Pelech — Ryan Pulock
Mike Reilly — Scott Mayfield
Final season, the Islanders’ prime pairing of Romanov and Dobson labored tirelessly because of the protection’s accidents. As a pairing, they completed with 50.7 xG% and 63.6 G%. On the Rangers, Lindgren and Fox completed with 46.5 xG% and 60.6 G%. The Islanders carried out higher in every of those metrics, however Fox’s season was hindered by accidents. Assuming Fox rebounds this season, the Rangers may have the higher prime defensive pairing, however it’s shut.
The Islanders and Rangers second defensive pairings are in fully totally different trajectories as Pelech and Pulock are every 29 years previous, whereas Miller and Schneider are simply 22 years previous every. For the Islanders, Pelech and Pulock’s keys to the season will likely be staying wholesome. Every had a stint on the Lengthy Time period Injured Reserve final season however returned earlier than the playoffs. If Pelech can regain his pre-injury type, he and Pulock have the potential to be one of many prime shutdown pairings within the NHL. On the Rangers facet, Miller spent most of final season paired with Trouba however carried out notably higher when alongside Schneider. Collectively, Miller and Schneider posted a 47 xG% and 53.6 G%, in comparison with Pelech and Pulock’s 46.8 xG% and 50 G%.
When evaluating these two defensive pairings, the state of affairs is just like evaluating the third ahead line. Pelech and Pulock supply a excessive flooring, whereas Miller and Schneider have the potential to be the very best second pairing within the NHL, with a flooring that might place them within the backside 10. The Islanders have a slight edge over the Rangers, nevertheless it was an in depth name and the hardest determination made thus far.
In some methods, the Islanders and Rangers have an equivalent third defensive pairing. Each Trouba and Mayfield are on their fanbases’ unhealthy sides following their 2023-24 season’s mishaps and main lower-body accidents. Nonetheless, each veterans are looking forward to a rebound this season, taking part in alongside sturdy puck-moving defensemen aiming to safe a full-time spot within the lineup. Though Mike Reilly has 400 NHL video games beneath his belt, he has solely performed greater than 61 video games in a season as soon as in his profession. Happily, he appears to have discovered an excellent match on Lengthy Island, the place he was Mayfield’s finest defensive associate final season, posting a 49.7 xG% and 47.1 G% collectively. If Mayfield can overcome the numerous accidents he sustained final season, this pairing might turn out to be one of many prime third pairings within the NHL.
The Rangers third pairing has a significant query mark surrounding Trouba’s potential. If he can keep wholesome and out of the penalty field, followers will transfer previous his 2023-24 struggles. Taking part in alongside Jones ought to assist, because the 23-year-old defenseman is clearly prepared to hitch the NHL full-time. He had a 51.1 G% and 50 G% in 31 NHL video games final season, and his puck-moving skills ought to bode nicely alongside Trouba. The efficiency of every crew’s third pairing will come right down to Mayfield and Trouba’s skills to remain on the ice and out of the penalty field, however as of now, the 2 models are fairly even.
Total, I might say the 2 crew’s defensive models are even. I feel the Rangers have a bit extra upside given their youth, however the Islanders’ veterans have a prolonged file of success. Whether or not Pelech and Mayfield can keep on the ice is a priority, however assuming they do, the Islanders may have one of many higher defensive cores within the NHL whereas the Rangers might vary from beneath common to among the best.
Evaluating Goaltending Tandems
So much has been mentioned in regards to the Islanders and Rangers goaltenders. With out Igor Shesterkin, the Rangers don’t win the President’s Trophy nor do they make the Japanese Convention Closing. With Ilya Sorokin’s struggles, the Islanders have been carried by Semyon Varlamov, proving the crew has among the best goaltending tandems within the NHL. Nonetheless, goaltenders are traditionally fickle, so projecting every crew’s tandem is a troublesome activity.
Heading right into a contract yr, Shesterkin is more likely to have a profession season. Following a couple of disappointing stretches in the course of the common season, he went 10-6 with a 2.34 targets towards common (GAA), .927 save proportion (SV%), and 13.1 targets saved above anticipated (GSAx) within the 2024 Playoffs. He was totally ridiculous, and this season is unlikely to be totally different.
Sorokin struggled final season however in an fascinating approach. On high-danger scoring probabilities, he remained one of many league’s finest goaltenders. He completed with a 0.105 high-danger unblocked shot try SV% above anticipated. These are loads of phrases, however this stat basically quantifies how significantly better a goaltender does on high-danger scoring probabilities relative to the league common. Shesterkin completed barely above Sorokin with a 0.107. Goaltenders Linus Ullmark and Sergei Bobrovsky completed in direction of the underside of this record. If Sorokin can as soon as once more make the routine saves, he ought to return to a Vezina Trophy-caliber goaltender.
Because the 2024-25 season approaches, Sorokin is ready for a robust comeback. His efficiency understandably declined because of the Islanders’ injury-riddled protection, however with a completely wholesome lineup, his trajectory is predicted to enhance. Moreover, Sorokin thrived beneath coach Roy, and with Roy getting into his first full season as head coach, Sorokin is primed for a resurgence. Whereas Shesterkin presently has the sting, if Sorokin can replicate his 2022-23 type, he might problem Shesterkin for the highest spot.
Varlamov and Jonathan Fast have been every sturdy goaltenders final season, however Varlamov will get the sting. He completed with a decrease SV% and GAA in additional ice time on a crew with a worse protection and penalty kill. Evaluating the 2 goaltenders at even power, Varlamov is significantly better, ending with a 9 GSAx, .927 SV%, and a pair of.14 GAA to Fast’s -1.5 GSAx, .918 SV%, and a pair of.37 GAA.
2023-24 was additionally an outlier for Fast. He has been on the decline for the previous few seasons, so suiting up for the Rangers was a great circumstance to get well from his -17.2 GSAx within the 2022-23 season. As nicely, he will likely be 39 years previous by the top of the season whereas Varlamov will likely be 36, that means he’s unlikely to construct on final season’s success. How he’ll play is but to be decided, however for now, Varlamov is the stronger backup goaltender.
If I needed to decide a facet, I might moderately have the Rangers tandem due to Shesertkin’s upside though the Islanders might have the very best tandem this season. As soon as the playoffs come round, just one goaltender is required which is why I would favor the Rangers, however total, it’s fairly shut.
In the long run, the Rangers have a considerably stronger roster than the Islanders heading into the 2024-25 season. There may be not sufficient upside on the Islanders’ roster to overhaul the Rangers within the standings, and whereas the Rangers have a number of obtrusive holes, manufacturing from Panarin, Fox, Shesterkin, and others will likely be too dominant to say no to lower than a forty five+ win, 100+ level crew within the standings.
