Josh Rojas, Choosing Machine | FanGraphs Baseball

At first look, Josh Rojas and Derek Zoolander don’t have so much in frequent. Rojas is a 3rd baseman, whereas Zoolander is a fictional male mannequin. Rojas is from Arizona, whereas Zoolander is from an unnamed coal mining city in Appalachia. They’ve totally different jobs, totally different lives, and once more, one is a fictional character. However one factor unites the 2: Their careers took off once they discovered tips on how to go left.

In 2022, Rojas settled into a task as an on a regular basis third baseman after years of bouncing between positions. Only one downside: He was one of many worst defenders within the main leagues on the sizzling nook. That was the consensus of scouts when he was a prospect, and defensive metrics bore it out. He notably struggled ranging in the direction of second base. Statcast breaks defensive alternatives up primarily based on which course a participant has to maneuver to make the play. When Rojas was shifting to his proper, ahead, or backward, he was one run above common defensively. When he went left, he was seven runs under common.

It didn’t really feel like a small pattern fluke. In 2021, Rojas performed all throughout the diamond and struggled going left at each place. In 2023, he performed extra second than third and once more put up his worst defensive numbers when shifting left. That was true on each the Diamondbacks and the Mariners – he acquired traded midway by way of the season. His protection regarded acceptable total, however going left remained an issue.

Loads can change in an offseason. Right here’s a listing of the highest defensive third basemen in 2024 based on Statcast:

And right here’s a listing of the highest third basemen on performs the place they’ve to maneuver left:

That’s some type of change. From his debut in 2019 by way of the top of 2023, Rojas was one of many worst within the recreation when it got here to shifting left. Now, admittedly in a small pattern, he’s top-of-the-line.

Defensive metrics are susceptible to excessive variation in small samples. That’s simply the secret. Regardless of how properly you measure, noise is an inherent downside. There aren’t sufficient observations, and the observations we do have are closely depending on components exterior of a fielder’s management. In different phrases, Rojas’ sudden enchancment may very well be a fluke.

It doesn’t appear to be one to me, although. Simply hearken to what the Mariners are saying, for one. Infield coach Perry Hill has a fame for getting probably the most out of all of his defenders. He talked to MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer concerning the enhancements Rojas has made this 12 months. He first praised Rojas’ total consistency and footwork, however he had some particular feedback too. “The backhand was a problem that we would have liked to deal with in spring coaching,” Hill informed Kramer. “And he did. He labored on it, and he’s made some very nice backhanded performs up to now this 12 months.”

Rojas by no means struggled on backhand picks – shifting proper – in Statcast’s estimation. However protection is interconnected. Altering your positioning or setup in an try to guard a weak backhand can introduce different issues. Heck, simply having to maneuver round between positions could make it more durable to make easy performs. Between each day drilling and parking Rojas at third – he’s performed the overwhelming majority of his innings there this 12 months – he and the Mariners have seemingly addressed a weak point.

This isn’t the place to cease our investigation, nevertheless. In spite of everything, Rojas acquired reward for his glorious protection at third in 2023, with plenty of quotes that sound the identical as this 12 months’s, earlier than struggling once more on the place, although he regarded higher at second.

What’s modified? In watching Rojas, one factor I seen is that he’s enjoying nearer to the plate normally this 12 months. The information bear that out. Right here’s his beginning depth, as measured by Statcast, at third base. I’ve cut up it out by handedness, since shifts make depth towards lefties a extra nebulous idea:

That’s attention-grabbing to me, and I feel it is sensible for one key purpose: Rojas has traditionally struggled with making constant throws throughout the diamond. He makes extra throwing errors than fielding errors, and whereas errors are an inherently subjective statistic, they nonetheless present some helpful data. I speculate that a few of Rojas’ challenges have come from needing to make deep throws on balls up the center.

Statcast breaks out performs by estimated success fee, which lets me inform you this: On performs the league converts at an 80% clip or higher, Rojas was abysmal from 2021 by way of 2023. We’re speaking about going to his left particularly on this article, nevertheless it’s simply as true total. He was six outs under common going left on straightforward performs, and 15 outs under common on straightforward performs total. On the robust stuff, he was 5 outs above common, principally shifting to his proper.

Mix that with the truth that most of his errors are of the throwing selection, and also you’ll begin to get an thought of what’s occurring. Loads of his issues on straightforward performs got here with him enjoying deep third base and having one thing go unsuitable, whether or not it was not with the ability to get the throw off in time, sending it offline, or simply attempting to go too quick and messing up all the pieces consequently. His worst ending positions on these 80%-plus performs have been mainly simply deep third base:

Now let’s take a look at a chart of his 80%-plus performs in 2024. Rojas has been phenomenally profitable on them, changing 99% of his choices. He’s additionally fielding the ball in a unique spot on common:

The relative sizes and colours of these containers each inform a narrative. Rojas is fielding fewer balls together with his ft close to the outfield grass, and extra coming in and to the left to chop the ball off. He’s getting simpler throws out of that change. That issues so much for somebody whose greatest struggles have all the time come on performs that the typical third baseman makes simply.

Evaluate Rojas to Matt Chapman, maybe the strongest-armed third baseman within the recreation, and this may make much more sense. Chapman has been 15 outs above common on straightforward performs from 2021 by way of 2024, the identical time-frame we’re for Rojas. He’s accomplished so whereas staying far again:

From 2021 by way of 2024, Chapman has performed thrice as many innings as Rojas at third. He’s made 18 throwing errors to Rojas’ 14. He combines a cannon arm and pinpoint accuracy. Thus it’s utterly cheap for him to discipline nearly all of his possibilities comparatively deep. It simply strains up properly together with his ability set.

Earlier than this 12 months, Rojas was fielding the ball in related areas to Chapman. That simply doesn’t make sense. No third baseman within the majors with 1,500 fielding innings from 2021-2024 makes throwing errors extra continuously than Rojas. Chapman is among the easiest. There’s a ton extra to protection than simply not throwing the ball away – however throwing the ball away was weighing Rojas down, and he was fielding balls in positions the place he wanted to make sturdy correct throws. It was only a unhealthy setup.

I don’t assume Rojas’ present type will proceed, as a result of once more, he’s been one of the crucial error-prone third basemen within the majors for years. He’s nonetheless made three throwing errors this 12 months, however all three have been forgivable, do-or-die throws towards speedy runners or tough hops at unimaginable angles. This play is an appropriate miss:

This one, from 2021, is just not:

You need to all the time be skeptical of these kinds of easy explanations. There simply hasn’t been sufficient baseball performed to make sure. Perhaps Rojas is simply uncommonly wholesome proper now, and the subsequent time he feels barely off within the morning, he’ll revert to his previous methods. Perhaps he’s simply on a throwing sizzling streak. Perhaps pure probability has meant he hasn’t had many deep balls to discipline, and he’ll be again to his previous methods very quickly.

I’m a believer, although. There’s a constant by way of line to Rojas’ enchancment that makes me extra prone to consider it. Standing nearer to dwelling plate will increase your throwing consistency. Enjoying the identical place persistently as an alternative of flying across the diamond improves your total fielding consistency. Drilling with a wonderful infield coach improves your consistency. And what we’ve seen up to now is how Rojas appears to be like when he’s extra constant. He’s by no means had a selected downside with robust performs, and now he’s making the simple ones. Seems like a profitable mannequin to me!