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Keeler Johnson’s 2024 Breeders’ Cup Alternatives


By J. Keeler Johnson (“Keelerman”) Twitter: @J_Keelerman


The wait is sort of over. On Nov. 1-2 at Del Mar, elite
racehorses from across the globe will sq. off in 14 races on the Breeders’
Cup World Championships.


Which horses will go to the winner’s circle at
California’s well-known seaside racetrack? Opinions differ, however this is how I see every
Breeders’ Cup race unfolding:


Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Dash


High
Choice:
Japanese raider #8 Ecoro Sieg (7-2) is unbeaten in two begins and set blazing
fractions of :21.8 and :43.8 when successful the Canna S. within the time of 1:07.2
for 1,200 meters (about six furlongs), breaking a 23-year-old juvenile course
document. Pace horses excel within the Juvenile Turf Dash, and I am keen to guess
Ecoro Sieg is the “pace of the pace” on this contest. I consider he’ll lead
all the way in which.


Second
Alternative: #9 Shareholder
(12-1) faltered when final seen within the Prix
Morny (G1), ending final of 9 over good-to-soft turf. However he opened his
profession with back-to-back wins over good-to-firm turf, together with a triumph in
the five-furlong Norfolk (G2) at Royal Ascot. The Norfolk fourth-place end, #7 Whistlejacket (5-1), returned to win
the Prix Morny and place in two different Group 1 prizes, so returning to agency turf
is perhaps all Shareholder must be aggressive towards top-tier competitors.


Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies


High
Choice: #9 American Bikini
(5-1) has proven immense
expertise in Japan, most notably conquering males by 2 1/2 lengths within the
Yamaboshi Sho allowance. She’s set or equaled two juvenile monitor data and
brings loads of early pace to the desk, giving her choices for understanding a
favorable journey. American Bikini would be the most gifted two-year-old from
Japan to compete within the Breeders’ Cup so far, so if her 5-1 morning line odds
maintain up, I will be desirous to play her.


Second
Alternative: #10 Scottish Lassie
(5-2) was tons the most effective in
the Frizette (G1), romping house by 9 lengths with a 90 Beyer Pace Determine
that tops this Breeders’ Cup area. Seven of the final 13 Juvenile Fillies
winners prepped within the Frizette, and Scottish Lassie is a severe menace to
American Bikini. Selecting between them is sort of a coin flip.


Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf


High
Choice:
Two years in the past, coach Aidan O’Brien gained this
race with Meditate, runner-up within the Moyglare Stud (G1) and Chevely Park (G1).
Now O’Brien is bringing #1 Lake Victoria
(8-5), whose unblemished 4-for-4 document consists of wins in these two Group 1
prizes. Lake Victoria appears like a category standout within the Juvenile Fillies Turf,
so I hope to see her save floor below Ryan Moore, discover a gap within the
homestretch, and burst by means of to maintain her unbeaten document intact.


Second
Alternative: #12 Might Day Prepared
(20-1) is perhaps the most effective of the American
fillies. She’s 3-for-3 and exits a rallying triumph within the Jessamine (G2), a
pivotal steppingstone to the Juvenile Fillies Turf. That victory got here on the
expense of #5 Completely Justified (20-1),
who had beforehand gained the P. G. Johnson S. at Saratoga. Might Day Prepared figures
to be closing laborious late below internationally famend jockey Frankie Dettori.


Breeders’ Cup Juvenile


High
Choice: #6 Citizen Bull
(10-1) has improved steadily for
five-time Juvenile-winning coach Bob Baffert. Alongside the way in which he is proven a
number of working kinds. He wired the American Pharoah (G1) in a stable time
final month and has cranked out blazing exercises since then, so I count on this
well-bred son of Into Mischief to maneuver ahead once more on Friday. I hope his
attractive 10-1 morning line odds maintain up.


Second
Alternative: #1 East Avenue
(5-2) was breathtaking within the Breeders’
Futurity (G1), main all the way in which to beat Hopeful (G1) runner-up #4 Ferocious (6-1) by 5 1/4 lengths.
However East Avenue benefited from racing over a strongly inside-biased monitor, so
it may very well be tough to copy that efficiency over a (presumably) honest monitor
at Del Mar.


Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf


High
Choice:
Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore have teamed up
to win the Juvenile Turf seven occasions. They’ll decide up an eighth with #13 Henri Matisse (6-1). When you draw a
line by means of his fifth-place end over tender turf within the Prix Jean-Luc
Lagardere (G1), it is laborious to knock his type. Two begins again he ran second by
three-quarters of a size within the seven-furlong Vincent O’Brien Nationwide (G1)
on the Curragh. The power Henri Matisse has proven sprinting ought to serve him
properly over a two-turn mile at Del Mar, and I am optimistic Moore can work out a
successful journey from publish 13—9 years in the past, he guided Hit It a Bomb to win this
race from publish 14.


Second
Alternative:
Coach Charlie Appleby has gained this race thrice.
He is entered two horses this yr, along with his go-to jockey William Buick named to
journey #12 Aomori Metropolis (10-1). Winner
of the Classic (G2) over a turning course at Goodwood, Aomori Metropolis ran fourth
(three lengths behind Henri Matisse) within the Vincent O’Brien Nationwide, however has
been freshened since then and could also be able to turning the tables over a a lot
completely different course configuration at Del Mar.


Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Dash


High
Choice: #8 Soul of an Angel
(12-1) is a succesful two-turn
performer; within the Molly Pitcher (G3), she got here inside a head of upsetting
champion Idiomatic. However she’s been a beast round one flip this yr,
conquering a number of Grade 1 winner Randomized by daylight within the one-mile
Ruffian (G2) and surging to win the seven-furlong Princess Rooney (G3) by 3 1/4
lengths. After repeatedly knocking heads with Randomized, Idiomatic, and Raging
Sea this yr, I consider Soul of an Angel will discover the competitors a bit
simpler within the Filly & Mare Dash and rally to victory by means of the ultimate
furlong.


Second
Alternative:
Three-year-old #9
Methods and Means
(5-2) has been unstoppable since slicing again to 1 mile or
much less. She beat a number of graded stakes winner Emery by 2 1/2 lengths within the Check
(G1), then conquered older rivals by 4 lengths within the Gallant Bloom (G2).
One other robust exhibiting needs to be within the offing at Del Mar.


Breeders’ Cup Turf Dash


High
Choice: #9 Cogburn
(7-5) has been a beast this yr,
posting decisive wins within the Twin Spires Turf Dash (G1), Jaipur (G1), and
Ainsworth Turf Dash (G2). Within the Jaipur, Cogburn beat a robust area by 3 1/2
lengths within the North American document time of :59.80 for five 1/2 furlongs. With
Beyer Pace Figures of 114, 107, and 107 below his belt this season, Cogburn is
the most effective turf sprinter in North America and hands-down the horse to beat on the
Breeders’ Cup.


Second
Alternative: #1 Believing
(12-1) has completed behind #12 Bradsell (7-2) in all three of
their conferences this yr, however by no means by greater than 1 1/4 lengths. The
four-year-old filly has positioned in three straight Group 1 sprints and could also be
in a position to flip the tables on Bradsell whereas breaking from the rail; he is marooned
within the far exterior publish and dangers a large journey. In any case, her 12-1 odds appear
too excessive.


Breeders’ Cup Distaff


High
Choice: #9 Superior Consequence
(4-1) hasn’t tasted defeat
from seven begins in Japan, most notably successful the Breeders’ Gold Cup by 5
lengths in 2:04.0 for two,000 meters (about 1 1/4 miles), a stable time over one
of Japan’s sluggish dust tracks. 2021 Distaff winner Marche Lorraine required
2:06.6 to win the identical race by a a lot smaller margin. Superior Consequence looms as a
formidable win menace whereas making her U.S. debut below legendary jockey Yutaka
Take.


Second
Alternative: #2 Thorpedo Anna
(4-5) has been sensational this yr,
successful the Kentucky Oaks (G1), Acorn (G1), Teaching Membership American Oaks (G1),
Cotillion (G1), and Fantasy (G2) towards fellow three-year-old fillies. She
additionally ran a large race towards males within the Travers (G1), coming inside a head
of beating champion Fierceness. However Thorpedo Anna carried out beneath expectations
within the Cotillion, working slower than regular whereas battling to victory by a
neck. There’s no less than a small probability she’s beginning to regress on the finish of
an action-packed season, opening the door for Superior Consequence to shock.


Breeders’ Cup Turf


High
Choice: #11 Insurgent’s Romance
(5-2) gained this race two
years in the past on the conclusion of a 5-for-5 marketing campaign that includes two Group 1 wins in
Germany. This yr, he is in even stronger type. The Charlie Appleby trainee is
4-for-5 with three Group 1 wins below his belt in Germany, Hong Kong, and
Dubai. His lone defeat got here when third in England’s prestigious King George VI
and Queen Elizabeth (G1) to the gifted Goliath and future Prix de l’Arc de
Triomphe (G1) winner Bluestocking. Appleby boasts a 10-for-20 (50%) document at
the Breeders’ Cup, and eight of his winners have been guided by William Buick,
who retains the mount on Insurgent’s Romance. The stage is about for Insurgent’s Romance
to regain his Turf title.


Second
Alternative:
Three-year-old #5
Jayarebe
(4-1) is skilled by Brian Meehan, who has saddled solely two horses
in previous editions of the Turf: Harmful Midge (first in 2010) and Crimson Rocks
(first in 2006, third in 2007, and fifth in 2009). When Meehan sends a Turf
starter, it is clever to take discover. Jayarebe has but to run farther than 1 1/4
miles, however he is gained the Prix Greenback (G2) and Hampton Courtroom (G3) this season,
and he additionally completed second within the Prix Guillaume d’Ornano (G2) to Economics,
who returned to beat 2023 Breeders’ Cup Turf champ Auguste Rodin within the Irish
Champion (G1). Type traces recommend Jayarebe has the expertise to problem even
whereas stretching out over 1 1/2 miles.


Breeders’ Cup Traditional


High
Choice:
I really feel like a case will be made for no less than
half a dozen horses to win this ultra-competitive renewal of the Traditional. One
of them is #14 Subsequent (8-1), the dust
marathon specialist who has gained 9 of his final 10 begins in spectacular
style. He is 4-for-4 this yr and ran one in all his greatest races within the 1 3/8-mile
Brooklyn (G2), blazing his last three furlongs in about :35.71 to trounce
Suburban (G2) winner Crupi by 9 1/4 lengths. I do not envision the Traditional
unfolding at a blazing tempo, so I consider Subsequent can sit a cushty
pace-tracking journey even whereas slicing again to 1 1/4 miles. If he can reproduce
the identical ending turn-of-foot that he is constantly proven over marathon
journeys, Subsequent can kick away from his Traditional rivals and spring an 8-1 shock.


Second
Alternative: #12 Arthur’s Experience
(15-1) is not essentially the most constant horse;
he is misfired twice this yr, together with within the Jockey Membership Gold Cup (G1) final
outing. However he is been freshened over the previous two months, and on his greatest day
he is quick sufficient to win the Traditional. He threw down a 110 Beyer when wiring the
Whitney (G1) by 2 1/4 lengths, and throughout the spring he trounced a 1 1/4-mile
allowance elective claimer at Saratoga with a 111 Beyer. Maybe if Arthur’s
Experience can shake unfastened on a comparatively simple lead within the Traditional, he can recapture
that type and outrun his 15-1 morning line odds.


Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf


High
Choice: #10 Moira
(8-1) completed third by 1 1/4 lengths on this
race final yr, crushed solely by elite European raiders Inspiral and Heat Coronary heart.
None of this yr’s abroad raiders seem like at fairly the identical stage as
these two, so Moira has a chance to steal the present for North America.
From three begins this season, Moira has gained the Beverly D. (G2) and completed
second below difficult circumstances in two Grade 1 stakes. Within the Diana
(G1), she was compromised by a pedestrian tempo, however nonetheless rallied to
miss victory by solely three-quarters of a size. Within the E. P. Taylor (G1), she
rated too far behind a runaway chief and could not fairly catch up, even whereas
working her last two quarter-miles in :22.21 and :22.80. With a greater setup
on this giant Filly & Mare Turf area, Moira can lastly safe her first
Grade 1 win.


Second
Alternative: #4 Battle Like Goddess
(5-2) has probably misplaced a
step this yr, however it’s laborious to say for sure, as a result of the seven-year-old
veteran has routinely confronted sluggish paces detrimental to her stretch-running
model. She received a bit extra tempo to chase when dealing with males within the Joe Hirsch Turf
Traditional (G1) final month and completed second by half a size, so if she
encounters a good tempo within the Filly & Mare Turf, Battle Like Goddess figures
to be gobbling up floor down the homestretch. She misplaced this race by lower than
one size again in 2021.


I am going to additionally point out #2
Full Rely Felicia
(12-1) as a must-use stay longshot. The gate-to-wire E.
P. Taylor winner has by no means run 1 3/8 miles, however could shake unfastened on an
uncontested lead below five-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. If
she does, Full Rely Felicia could overlook to cease within the homestretch.


Breeders’ Cup Dash


High
Choice:
There is a ton of pace on this area, which
might compromise morning line favourite #3 Federal Decide (3-1), who benefited
from an inside bias when wiring the Phoenix (G2) in a quick time final month. If
a blazing tempo unfolds, it ought to swimsuit #4
Nakatomi
(6-1), who ran third by two lengths within the 2023 Breeders’ Cup
Dash whereas dealing with Elite Energy and Gunite. I am unsure there are any horses
nearly as good as these two on this yr’s Dash area, so Nakatomi could have an
simpler time in his second Breeders’ Cup look. He ran towards the bias
when second to Federal Decide within the Phoenix and beforehand gained the Alfred G.
Vanderbilt H. (G1) throughout the summer season at Saratoga, so search for Nakatomi to shut
floor strongly down the Del Mar homestretch.


Second
Alternative:
One other horse who figures to profit from a scorching tempo is #9 Remake (8-1), the stretch-running
Japanese sprinter who boasts wins within the Riyadh Filth Dash (G3) and Korea
Dash (G3) this yr. Again in 2023, he ran third to Elite Energy and Gunite in
the Riyadh Filth Dash, so type traces recommend this globetrotting five-year-old
has the expertise to issue within the Breeders’ Cup Dash.


Breeders’ Cup Mile


High
Choice:
A powerful area of Europeans has turned out
for the Mile, and I narrowly choose Charlie Appleby’s three-year-old #6 Notable Speech (7-2). He faltered
over tender floor within the Prix du Moulin de Longchamp (G1) final outing, however
over drier floor the Godolphin homebred has been glorious. Throughout the spring
he gained England’s historic 2000 Guineas (G1) over good floor, and when tackling
good-to-firm turf within the Sussex (G1) he conquered older rivals by 1 1/2
lengths. William Buick retains the mount as he and Appleby search to win the Mile
for the fourth straight yr.


Second
Alternative: #7 Porta Fortuna
(4-1) completed second by half a size
within the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) and has since developed
into one in all Europe’s prime milers. A neck defeat within the 1000 Guineas (G1)
preceded wins within the Coronation (G1), Falmouth (G1), and Matron (G1), so this
stylish sophomore filly is a formidable win menace whereas returning to North
America.


Breeders’ Cup Filth Mile


High
Choice:
There is a ton of pace on this area, so why
not help stretch-running #8 Put up Time
(12-1) at a worth? He was in scorching type throughout the winter and spring, successful
4 straight races together with the Normal George (G3) and Carter (G2). Then,
throughout the spring, he held his personal towards top-tier competitors when second in
the Metropolitan H. (G1) and third (crushed solely 2 1/2 lengths) within the Whitney
(G1). Put up Time stays in robust type, having trounced the one-mile Polynesian
S. at Laurel Park final month by 11 1/2 lengths, and the Filth Mile is arguably
a better spot than the Metropolitan or Whitney. At 12-1, Put up Time is value a
lengthy look.


Second
Alternative: #9 Home Product
(7-2) has been using a scorching
streak since slicing again to 1 mile or much less, dominating the Dwyer (G3) by 7
1/2 lengths earlier than beating a deep area within the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial (G1).
Stepping up towards older rivals is a brand new problem, and I am unsure Home
Product is kind of as efficient round two turns as he’s round one flip. However he
did win the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) round two turns throughout the spring, and a
blazing tempo would play to the strengths of this stretch-running sophomore.

Now it is your flip! Who do you want within the 14 Breeders’ Cup races?


*****

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J. Keeler Johnson (also referred to as “Keelerman”) is a author, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing fanatic. An excellent fan of racing historical past, he considers Dr. Fager to be the best racehorse ever produced in America, however counts Zenyatta as his all-time favourite.



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