The second general number of the 2009 NHL Entry Draft belonged to the Tampa Bay Lightning. This decide ended up being franchise-altering, as they chose star defenseman Victor Hedman. Quick ahead to 2024, the blueliner has 1,052 video games underneath his belt at 33 years previous. Moreover, he just lately signed a four-year extension at a median annual worth of $8 million.
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Regardless of a bounce-back efficiency offensively in 2023-24 with 76 factors in 78 video games, there have been rising considerations about Hedman’s 5-on-5 and defensive play. Whereas the Lightning added younger defensemen like J.J. Moser to the roster, Hedman will nonetheless steer the ship for Tampa Bay. With the Lightning’s high defender slowly getting older, what are affordable expectations for him earlier than subsequent season?
Hedman’s State of affairs Final Season
To contextualize Hedman’s macro-analytics, the Lightning’s again finish suffered numerous accidents. This unlucky luck left him to run the blue line all by himself. With high defenders like Mikhail Sergachev and Erik Cernak lacking important time, Hedman was in an unfamiliar atmosphere. Moreover, he didn’t have a constant associate both. Nevertheless, he discovered probably the most success with later bloomer Darren Raddysh. The 27-year-old performed a conservative two-way recreation and defended the frenzy, which allowed Hedman to maximise his offensive manufacturing at 5-on-5.
Macro-Analytic vs Micro-Analytic Efficiency
With an elevated defensive function and unfamiliar deployment, Hedman posted among the worst macro-analytical totals of his complete profession. EvolvingHockey graded his even-strength defensive GAR at minus-5.8, the second lowest of his NHL tenure. Furthermore, HockeyViz’s artificial objectives worth is plus-1.8, equal to a high-end second-pairing defenseman. Nevertheless, taking a look at his level totals, one would recommend Hedman stays within the higher echelon of defenders within the NHL. So, what explains the imbalance of elite manufacturing and poor marco-analytics?
Imagine it or not, Hedman’s micro-analytics bridge the hole between his excessive level totals and underwhelming macro-stats. Utilizing Corey Sznajder’s workbook from AllThreeZones and my very own microstats database for the Lightning I tracked final season, numbers can justify why Hedman nonetheless belongs within the high tier of defensemen. Sznajder’s stats present that Hedman was among the finest puck-moving defensemen within the league final season. He positioned within the 99th percentile of defensive zone retrievals resulting in exits per hour amongst defensemen. Plus, Hedman ranked within the 99th percentile of zone exits with possession per 60.
My monitoring knowledge additionally exhibits how environment friendly Hedman was in zone exit metrics. He ranked first in zone exit passes, carries, and clears amongst Lightning defenders. On high of his excessive workload and puck touches, Hedman had a managed exit share of 59.05%. As well as, he’s additionally closely influential within the Lightning’s rush offense. His potential to hitch the play and his talent on the breakout make him among the finest in transition at 33 years previous. He ranked first in zone entry carries and passes out of all Lightning defenders final season. He even posted a powerful managed entry share of 48.57% for a blue liner. Whereas his marco-results weren’t on par along with his monitor report, his microstats have been wonderful.
Anticipated Position and Efficiency This Season
With a revamped defensive core in Tampa Bay, we’ll see a shift in Hedman’s function on the staff this season. Plus, the Lightning have a captain emptiness for the primary time in a decade. The Swedish blueliner looks as if the proper candidate to guide this new period of Lightning hockey this season. Including defensive specialists like Ryan McDonagh and Moser will take a heavy workload off of Hedman’s shoulders. Whether or not he’s paired with Raddysh or Moser, having a strong rush defender by his facet will permit him to proceed his greatest play offensively on the frenzy.
Whereas the dynamic of the Lightning energy play will change with out Steven Stamkos, Hedman has no competitors for the highest unit since Sergachev joined the Utah Hockey Membership. After one of many worst seasons in his profession in 2022-23, the 33-year-old rebounded with elite offensive manufacturing and microstats. Heading into this season, Julien BriseBois added important items to shelter Hedman from too many minutes in opposition to top-tier competitors, which is able to assist him stay efficient at each ends of the ice. We are able to moderately count on Hedman to report one other season throughout the 70-point vary, presumably with improved macro-analytics and a “C” on his jersey.
