Reaching 20 objectives and 50 factors as a sophomore, Montreal Canadiens ahead Juraj Slafkovsky “broke out” for all intents and functions in 2023-24. Nevertheless, regardless of being a No. 1 total choose in 2022, he wasn’t precisely an ideal candidate to heading into final season following an underwhelming 10-point rookie marketing campaign (39 video games).
Amid ideas the Canadiens ought to develop him within the American Hockey League, Slafkovsky even began off final season slowly, at an analogous tempo, with seven factors in his first 29 video games. Then clearly one thing switched on for him (following a everlasting shift onto the primary line with Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield).
Contemplating Slafkovsky’s draft pedigree, it’s in all probability hyperbolic to make use of him for instance that something can occur. That’s arguably true of any of the under 5 names too, on this record of the likeliest Canadiens candidates to interrupt out in 2024-25. Every has proven one thing up so far that justifies their inclusion, whereas anybody else can theoretically unexpectedly develop by leaps and bounds as a substitute to turn out to be a member of the core as a substitute. Slafkovsky serves as proof of that, not less than.
5. Arber Xhekaj
Defenseman Arber Xhekaj technically got here from out of nowhere as an undrafted prospect to leap straight to the NHL in 2022-23, throughout which he performed 51 video games. Some could say that qualifies as him breaking out in and of itself. Nevertheless, he’s by no means scored greater than 13 factors, even getting despatched right down to the AHL final season for an prolonged time period.
By advantage of the actual fact Xhekaj is now on a newly signed one-way deal, he’s not less than likelier to remain the size of the season within the NHL. It stays to be seen how he will get deployed although, because the Canadiens defenseman with the Tenth-highest common ice time final season (15:56). Regardless of having noticeably improved his all-around means, he may presumably find yourself the Habs’ seventh defenseman.
Associated: Canadiens Should Reassess Seventh-Defenseman Wants for 2024-25
Nevertheless, primarily based on how Xhekaj obtained common power-play time, he may additionally get away additional to turn out to be a key offensive contributor. Even with simply the potential to, he clearly stays within the staff’s long-term plans, a truth bolstered by how he obtained a (barely) greater cap hit than Justin Barron, who re-signed alongside him underneath comparable circumstances as a fellow restricted free agent this offseason.
4. Justin Barron
Even so, Barron ranks greater right here, attributable to quite a lot of elements. For starters, he’s merely obtained the next ceiling, not less than by way of offensive manufacturing, with him having ranked second amongst Canadiens defensemen with seven objectives final season, which, whereas vital, can’t be thought of him breaking out all by itself (as he hung out within the AHL final season himself).
So, Barron stays on the cusp. Nevertheless, on a one-way deal too, he’s in all probability making the Canadiens out of coaching camp, particularly as he’s now not exempt from waivers (in contrast to Xhekaj). One thing else he’s obtained going for him that Xhekaj doesn’t is his right-handed shot. There’s simply extra roster room on the suitable than on the left, the place the latter should contend for ice time with Mike Matheson, Kaiden Guhle, Jordan Harris and Jayden Struble. Barron actually simply has David Savard (as the one different pure rightie who’s a digital lock to stay within the NHL subsequent season).
3. Joshua Roy
There may be little room for debate: Joshua Roy confirmed he belonged within the NHL final season, as one of many staff’s most useful forwards following the All-Star Recreation. Assuming he makes the Canadiens out of coaching camp although, the query is the place particularly will he play?
If it’s in a third-line position (or decrease), it’s exhausting to think about him doing greater than replicating his admittedly modest manufacturing from final season. He wouldn’t actually be put able to achieve such an occasion. Nevertheless, if he’s performed just like the top-six ahead he initiatives to be, the 9 factors he scored (23 video games, prorated to 32 over 82 video games) are a logical leaping off level by way of expectations.
It clearly will depend on Roy. Nevertheless, it first will depend on whether or not the Canadiens commerce an extra ahead this offseason (a la Christian Dvorak) to make room. If the Habs do, that might set the stage for Roy to maneuver right into a top-six position, presumably dropping winger Alex Newhook right down to the third-line centre spot, which is Dvorak’s at present (which is perhaps finest for the staff’s long-term outlook).
2. Alex Newhook
That is the place issues can get contentious, as a result of some could counsel Newhook doesn’t belong on this record as somebody who scored a career-high 34 factors in 55 video games final season as a 23-year-old.
Nevertheless, the argument supporting his inclusion is that this: Newhook actually solely got here on late within the season. Coming back from an harm in February, he scored 21 factors in his final 30 video games. Take that stretch away and the 13 in 25 which might be left aren’t practically as spectacular. And, if we’re speaking about just some months of manufacturing, Newhook arguably has much more to show, specifically sustained success over a whole season.
There’s each motive to consider Newhook can accomplish the feat. Taking a look at in a technique, his linemates down the stretch, as he was compelled to centre Brendan Gallagher and Joel Armia attributable to an extended string of accidents to befall the staff, are hardly superstars. Taking a look at it one other… if the Canadiens don’t handle to commerce Dvorak as steered above, Newhook will realistically get performed on the wing of Kirby Dach, who’s already displayed a horrible penchant for making his linemates even higher.
1. Kirby Dach
If Newhook belongs on this record, as does Dach. In spite of everything, Dach scored at an analogous tempo as the previous in 2022-23 (38 factors in 58 video games), earlier than (a extra severe) harm struck, limiting him to only two video games final season. All that to say, Dach nonetheless has much more to show himself by way of sustained success.
The overall consensus appears to be Dach has the flexibility to, however that there aren’t any ensures all the identical, particularly from a well being standpoint. He’s by no means performed greater than 70 video games in a single season, prompting some to specific concern he ever can. Moreover, if Dach is capable of, can he get again to the extent of play he displayed two seasons in the past?
If historical past is any indication, primarily based on the athletes who suffered an analogous harm, there may be good probability Dach can. And, logically, by the (unofficial) legislation of averages, each he and the Canadiens are due for some luck.
Many say he’s injury-prone, however the flip aspect of the argument is that the most important accidents he’s suffered have all been to completely different components of his physique. So, whether it is simply unhealthy luck (and Canadiens followers ought to know firsthand there may be such a factor), there’s low(er) threat of reaggravating them.
Taking all that into consideration, primarily based on his simple ability as a centre some noticed usurping Suzuki on the highest line, Dach has the very best probability of any Habs participant to take his recreation to the following stage. As has been established in older items, if he does the staff as an entire ought to have little bother doing the identical. Simply think about if the surprising occurs and different gamers do too.
