The Nashville Predators have been probably the most fascinating groups to start the 2024-25 NHL season for all of the fallacious causes. After back-to-back losses to the Ottawa Senators and Montreal Canadiens, they’ve a 7-15-3 report and are thirty first within the NHL, with solely the Chicago Blackhawks having a worse report.
Nothing has gone proper for the Predators this season, and that is after they spent practically $100 million in free company throughout the offseason. So what’s gone fallacious with the Predators? And is there a path out? Or are they in hassle for the lengthy haul?
Predators’ Disastrous 2024 Offseason
Earlier than entering into what’s gone fallacious for the Predators, let’s assessment what they did this summer season. Amongst their free-agent signings had been Brady Skjei, Jonathan Marchessault, and Steven Stamkos. None had been low cost, and all got here on prolonged contracts:
How are these three gamers doing within the first years of their offers? The reply will not be nicely. Stamkos has seven objectives and 13 factors in 28 video games, whereas Marchessault has 5 tallies and 13 factors in 28 video games. Each gamers had been purported to be key cogs within the Predators constructing off their 98-point season a yr in the past, however they’re every on tempo for 38 factors.
That’s performed a major position within the Predators’ downfall, however it’s not a shock they haven’t lived as much as their signings. There have been indicators of decline in Stamkos’ recreation final season; half of his 81 factors got here on the facility play. There’s a cause the Tampa Bay Lightning moved on from him in favor of Jake Guentzel, and it’s as a result of there have been actual indicators of decline in Stamkos’ five-on-five recreation.
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The decline in Stamkos’ five-on-five recreation has reared its ugly head to start the season in Nashville, however it wasn’t as apparent with Marchessault in Vegas final season. Positive, his skating has began to fall off, however he totaled 42 objectives with the Golden Knights. And although he was as a consequence of regress from that whole, he was nonetheless guess for 25-30 objectives. Proper now, he’s not pacing for something near that.
Sadly for the Predators, Marchessault and Stamkos haven’t even been the Predators’ worst signing. Skjei has struggled mightily and has a few of the worst underlying numbers within the league, particularly defensively. Per Hockey Stat Playing cards, he has a Defensive Score of minus-2.6 and an general Internet Score of minus-3.5.
We’ve seen some free-agency nightmares over the past decade, however the Predators’ 2024 summer season feels just like the worst one in a very long time. It’s affected their crew play at five-on-five, as they’ve a 48.78 anticipated objectives share (xG%). That’s improved a bit from the beginning of the season, however it’s a far cry from the place the Predators had been in 2023-24 once they had been among the finest five-on-five groups within the NHL; they completed with a 53.13 xG% in 2023-24.
How might it get so unhealthy so rapidly for the Predators? Andrew Brunette is a reasonably good coach, and I can guarantee you he didn’t overlook find out how to coach in a single day. The issue is the roster. Normal supervisor Barry Trotz spent practically $100 million in free company on gamers on the fallacious facet of 30 who’re/had been exhibiting indicators of decline, and so they’re paying for it.
As a substitute of including youthful and quicker gamers Brunette wants, the roster received older and slower. The Predators now have the second-oldest roster within the NHL behind the Edmonton Oilers due to the strikes they made final offseason, which falls on Trotz. That’s why they’ve struggled a lot to start this season, and sadly, it doesn’t appear to be there’s a straightforward path out.
Predators’ Poor Roster Building May Linger Past 2024-25
It might solely be Dec. 9, however the Predators’ 24-25 season is successfully over. Their playoff odds are down to simply 5 % on MoneyPuck, and so they’ll want an unbelievable heater the remainder of the way in which to get again into the playoff race within the Western Convention.
As a lot as I’d wish to say it’s a one-year blip for the Predators, I don’t assume it’s. The issue with having the second-oldest roster within the NHL is it’s not getting youthful any time quickly, particularly with the contracts they signed this offseason. Will we anticipate Stamkos and Marchessault to get higher at 34-35 years outdated? Historical past tells us that’s unlikely.
Skjei is the youngest of the three at 31, so maybe he can enhance from a tough begin, however that’s not a given. It’s not like every of the contracts are straightforward to maneuver, too. Trotz isn’t going to commerce any of those gamers after one yr, however who’d wish to tackle a 35-year-old Stamkos at a mean annual worth (AAV) of $8 million for 3 extra years this offseason? The identical is true of Marchessault, who has 4 years at an AAV of $5.5 million after this one.
It’s simply not these contracts which can be the issue, too. The Predators’ general roster building isn’t constructed to be a contender in 2024. Ryan O’Reilly remains to be participant, however he’s a second/third-line middle on a contender in in the present day’s NHL. The Predators had been hoping Tommy Novak would take a step ahead and turn out to be their second-line middle, however he’s struggled mightily.
They don’t have the middle depth to be aggressive within the NHL this season, which compounds their issues much more. They do have some promising prospects; Zachary L’Heureux and Fedor Svechkov appear to be they could possibly be middle-six facilities. However it’ll be a few years earlier than they will make a distinction.
Nonetheless, Trotz has made questionable personnel selections with younger prospects/gamers. The jury remains to be out on Yaroslav Askarov, however they could remorse that commerce in a few years. Additionally they gave Dante Fabbro away on waivers, however he’s regarded nice because the Columbus Blue Jackets claimed him. Furthermore, Philip Tomasino has three objectives and 4 factors in 5 video games for the Penguins since getting dealt to Pittsburgh. Will Trotz even make the precise selections with their younger gamers? I wouldn’t really feel too assured about that proper now.
The Predators’ 2024-25 season could also be over, however at the very least their odds at including a blue-chip prospect like Porter Martone, James Hagens, and many others. within the 2025 draft may also help change their fortunes. It seems to be like they’ll want that as a result of they’ve an growing old roster saddled with poor contracts, which suggests the Predators could possibly be sitting within the basement past the 2024-25 season.
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