Typically I could be a curmudgeon, particularly on the subject of the “youths.” Positive, I’m solely 27, however I’m almost a decade faraway from highschool so I inform myself I’ve some declare to be one. I’m not saying I’m proper to behave like this. I’m simply making an attempt to be trustworthy. And in that vein of honesty, nothing brings out my curmudgeon-ness like discussing the younger gamers within the NHL.
These days, the NHL is filled with younger gamers doing electrifying, never-before-seen issues on the ice. Whether or not it’s artistic methods to attain, go, skate, or rejoice, pleasure concerning the expertise within the league is palpable. The NHL is their oyster, and the massive paydays they safe show that.
Usually, in my curmudgeon-ness, I’d begrudge the eye and hype these children demand—in all probability counting on some line like, “They should earn it,” to justify my crankiness (once more, I’m not saying I’m proper). However just lately, I listened to Jack Michaels, the play-by-play announcer for the Edmonton Oilers, on Spittin’ Chiclets, and he stated one thing that caught my consideration and prompted me to put aside my considerably unfounded prejudice towards younger NHLers.
Discussing the years after the Oilers drafted Ryan Nugent-Hopkins first general, Michaels stated, “It was ugly again then for these younger Oiler groups. They only didn’t have the muscle, they didn’t have the veteran guile, that clearly swiftly the Oilers right this moment are the oldest workforce within the league.”
Michaels is describing how the Oilers have aged, proper earlier than our eyes seemingly, right into a Stanley Cup contender. Irrespective of how a lot uncooked talent the workforce had, some lacking parts prevented them from beating the juggernauts of that period.
These lacking components had been age and expertise.
How Michaels framed the Oilers’ growth made me surprise concerning the common age of NHL groups once they win the Stanley Cup. Then (after I informed my curmudgeon-ness to be quiet) I puzzled whether or not groups loaded with “younger weapons” win championships. Lastly, I believed, “Can we predict the following Stanley Cup champion primarily based on the workforce’s common age?”
These three questions are what we will likely be exploring. Hopefully, alongside the way in which, I can study to look previous my crankiness, and perhaps, simply perhaps, we are able to all study one thing about ourselves, or a least our favourite groups.
Defining our Phrases
Earlier than we dive into the numbers, allow us to outline our phrases. A “younger” participant will likely be anybody 24 and below. Twenty-four supplies an inexpensive tethering level for gamers of various calibers. A phenom like Connor Bedard will likely be within the NHL for six years on the age of 24, however nobody would contemplate him previous at that time. Different gamers who don’t break into the NHL till the age of 21 or 22 will nonetheless have two or three years below their belts at 24. Once more, with such little expertise, these gamers can hardly be thought-about previous.
Anybody over 25 is straight-up previous. I imply previous as grime. I’m kidding in fact, however I like 25 because the benchmark for “previous” gamers as a result of gamers can have had some NHL expertise by that age and can actually start to enter the prime of their careers (consider Nathan MacKinnon who actually has elevated his sport the previous few years).
To find out the common age of a workforce, we’re utilizing Hockey Reference and looking out on the age of the Stanley Cup champions on Feb. 1 of the common season and the common age of their roster within the playoffs. Having each is vital as a result of it exhibits how the workforce made it into the playoffs and the way the workforce gained. As all of us generally keep in mind Cale Makar decides to make his NHL debut within the postseason at 20 and skew all of the numbers. Gosh, the youth, am I proper?
These are the bottom guidelines. Let’s dive in.
Common Age of Final 10 Stanley Cup Champions
This leg of our work is pretty easy. Beneath, you will note the previous 10 Stanley Cup champions and the common age of their common season and postseason rosters.
Staff | Avg. Common Season Age | Avg. Postseason Age. |
Florida Panthers (2024) | 29.5 | 28.1 |
Vegas Golden Knights (2023) | 29 | 28.3 |
Colorado Avalanche (2022) | 28.2 | 27.6 |
Tampa Bay Lightning (2021) | 28.4 | 27.7 |
Tampa Bay Lightning (2020) | 27.7 | 27 |
St. Louis Blues (2019) | 28 | 26.9 |
Washington Capitals (2018) | 28.4 | 26.6 |
Pittsburgh Penguins (2017) | 28.7 | 28.3 |
Pittsburgh Penguins (2016 | 29 | 27 |
Chicago Blackhawks (2015) | 29.3 | 28.3 |
Los Angeles Kings (2014) | 27.4 | 27 |
Effectively, sorry youngins, these championship groups had been all previous. Each single iteration sat properly above 25 years previous. The 2024 Panthers had the oldest common season roster and the second-oldest postseason roster (after a three-way tie for first). In the meantime, the 2014 Kings boasted the youngest common season roster, whereas the 2018 Capitals surprisingly gained with the youngest postseason roster.
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The vary between the oldest and youngest groups was a mere 2.9 years. Moreover, the dip in groups’ common age within the postseason is as a result of the postseason rosters embrace everybody who performed at the very least one sport, so we have now guys like Shane Gersich enjoying one playoff sport for the 2018 Capitals, successfully decreasing that common age (I informed you the youth make every little thing tough). That means, if we take away these gamers, that vary of two.9 years would shrink to a fair smaller quantity.
All that stated, there isn’t any escaping the truth that these groups had been previous. Even when we upped the brink from 25 to 26, we might not get rid of any of those champions. Setting the “previous” bar at 27 solely scratched off the 2018 Capitals and 2019 Blues. Put one other manner, the youngest postseason roster, the 2018 Capitals, are 2.6 years above that 24-year-old benchmark we set to be thought-about younger. Outdated(er) groups win. It is so simple as that.
Takeaways From the Numbers
You is likely to be saying to your self, “Nick, in fact, older groups win. That’s apparent. We didn’t want your desk to indicate us that.” To that, I’d say, “How previous are you? 12? Depart me alone.”
No, what I’d actually say is, I agree. It appears apparent that groups with age, expertise, and grit win the Stanley Cup. What Jack Michaels stated is true, and we all know that intuitively. Or will we?
Many, many hockey pundits had excessive expectations for the New Jersey Devils final season. Sportsnet, for instance, had the workforce because the fifth-best heading into the season. Sadly, they didn’t make the playoffs, and the common age of the groups tells us we must always not shocked. The Devils had been the eighth youngest workforce on opening evening of the 2023-24 season.
A more in-depth take a look at the numbers reveals a sample. A candy spot exists in regards to the ages of gamers.
Too many older gamers and you’re unlikely to qualify for the playoffs (the Pittsburgh Penguins had been the the oldest workforce on opening evening). A workforce flooded with an excessive amount of younger expertise may even almost definitely miss the postseason (the Buffalo Sabres had been the youngest). Nonetheless, should you had been compelled to skew older or youthful, you’ll wish to stockpile veterans. Of the eight youngest groups initially of the 2023-24 season, just one (the Devils) made the playoffs. In the meantime, of the eight oldest groups, 5 certified for the playoffs.
After all, opening evening rosters will not be probably the most correct illustration of groups’ demographics all through a whole season. Gamers will likely be despatched right down to and known as up from the American Hockey League (AHL). Accidents will sideline guys. Trades will herald recent faces whereas sending away acquainted ones. Nonetheless, the numbers spotlight an underlying sample that can not be ignored. Older groups fare higher.
Predicting the Subsequent Cup Champion
Now that I’ve confirmed I’ve each proper to be a curmudgeon (the numbers don’t lie!), we set the stage for predicting the following Stanley Cup champion. Sadly, we should watch for the common ages of NHL groups to reach after the season opens on Oct. 8. Within the meantime, check out what strikes your favourite workforce has made throughout the offseason. Are they including older gamers (wink, wink, nudge, nudge, Devils including 34-year-old goaltender Jakob Markstrom)? Do they have to be youthful (cough Penguins cough)? Is Nick Haydon at all times proper, and why is the reply sure?