Home Ice Hockey New York Islanders’ 2024-25 Stat Predictions – The Hockey Writers – New York Islanders

New York Islanders’ 2024-25 Stat Predictions – The Hockey Writers – New York Islanders

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New York Islanders’ 2024-25 Stat Predictions – The Hockey Writers – New York Islanders

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Regardless of enduring many accidents final season, the New York Islanders made the playoffs and put up an admirable combat towards the powerhouse Carolina Hurricanes in Spherical 1. After making two substantial additions to the ahead core this offseason, the Islanders are actually hopeful to construct on final season’s success beneath head coach Patrick Roy.

With an improved and rested roster, the Islanders have sneakily earned their option to being deemed “favorites” by most sportsbooks to make the 2025 Playoffs. Whereas they’re nonetheless lengthy pictures to win the Stanley Cup, this core has gone on a number of deep playoff runs in current seasons, so don’t depend them out. As nicely, the roster has undergone extra change than many understand, particularly after the newest waiver wire choices.

Mat Barzal

22 Targets – 62 Assists – 84 Factors – 82 Video games Performed

Mat Barzal is coming off a really robust season that noticed him rating 80 factors and file a career-high 23 objectives. His success got here from an improved powerplay and the everlasting addition of Bo Horvat to his line. Barzal completed the season with 20.1 anticipated objectives (xG), per MoneyPuck, however his 9.6% taking pictures price—1.1% beneath his profession common—and 240 pictures, 61 greater than his earlier season excessive, recommend he’s poised for an additional robust efficiency this season.

Associated: Revisiting John Tavares’ 9 Seasons with the Islanders

With the addition of Anthony Duclair to his line this season, Barzal will lastly have a second, true goal-scoring menace who can sustain along with his pace. It could not look like a lot, however Barzal ought to see a slight uptick in his level manufacturing, with the upside of scoring 25+ objectives and 90+ factors. It is going to be fascinating to see how his objective manufacturing is impacted by Duclair’s addition as Barzal could resort again to his pass-first mentality now he has two robust scorers on his line. It is going to even be fascinating to see how he elevates his recreation in his second season on the appropriate wing.

Bo Horvat

32 Targets – 38 Assists – 70 Factors – 82 Video games Performed

Horvat delivered a powerful efficiency final season, and he’s prone to replicate it this 12 months. Whereas the addition of Duclair may end in Horvat taking fewer pictures, his general level manufacturing is anticipated to extend barely. Regardless of registering simply 23.4 xG final season, Horvat has constantly exceeded that metric in his profession. 40+ objectives appear unlikely, however he’s a strong guess to attain between 30 and 36.

Anthony Duclair

23 Targets – 26 Assists – 49 Factors – 82 Video games Performed

As soon as acquired by the Tampa Bay Lightning final season, Duclair spent the vast majority of his time alongside superstars Brayden Level and Nikita Kucherov. In 17 video games, he scored eight objectives and 15 factors, proving he can produce at a excessive clip alongside elite expertise. Whereas Horvat and Barzal are a tier beneath Level and Kucherov, related outcomes are anticipated.

Duclair’s pace and shot will pair very nicely with Barzal’s pace and playmaking capability. On the primary line final season, Anders Lee generated a team-high 35.8 xG, good for the sixteenth most within the NHL. Whereas Lee was unable to capitalize on his frequent high-danger scoring possibilities, Duclair must be completely different, leaving him as a assured 20+ objective scorer with upside for 30+ objectives and 60+ factors.

Brock Nelson

40 Targets – 35 Assists – 75 Factors – 82 Video games Performed

Brock Nelson, within the least analytical time period doable, is due for a 40-goal season. The 32-year-old is without doubt one of the league’s most underrated scoring threats, and he has scored 34+ objectives every of the previous three seasons. As nicely, he completed final season with 1.38 objectives per 60 minutes, the identical as Mikko Rantanen who scored 42 objectives final season and 55 the season prior. With a totally wholesome protection, Roy will probably be extra prepared to let his top-scoring threats be extra aggressive, and no one will profit greater than Nelson. After all, 40 objectives are fairly formidable, so a 35-goal, 35-assist, and 70-point season is extra real looking.

Jean-Gabriel Pageau

12 Targets – 21 Assists – 33 Factors – 82 Video games Performed

Jean-Gabriel Pageau is a troublesome participant to evaluate given the uncertainty of his linemates. If he can discover chemistry with two constant wingers, he may rating 20+ objectives and 40+ factors. Nonetheless, he has by no means scored 20+ objectives in a season as an Islander, and it’s wanting like the underside six will probably be an ever-changing assortment of playstyles and linemates. With that, his objective and level manufacturing ought to improve from final season, however it’s nonetheless extremely unlikely he’ll present the offense followers are hoping for.

Anders Lee

19 Targets – 19 Assists – 38 Factors – 82 Video games Performed

Anders Lee has been demoted to the center six, however this might not be the tip of the world. He’ll start every shift with extra vitality, and his time on the powerplay is unlikely to lower by a lot. This may be the primary time since 2015-16 he completed with lower than a 20-goal tempo, however given his age and disappointing 2023-24 season, it’s sadly possible.

Casey Cizikas

9 Targets – 9 Assists – 18 Factors – 82 Video games Performed

Casey Cizikas will probably be on the Islanders’ fourth line and is unlikely to supply a lot offense. He has been hovering across the 10-goal, 20-point mark in current seasons, and at 33 years previous is unlikely to have a profession resurgence. Whereas his offensive manufacturing might not be the very best, he offers succesful protection, an asset followers are inclined to take as a right.

Kyle Palmieri

23 Targets – 24 Assists – 47 Factors – 79 Video games Performed

Kyle Palmieri was the unsung hero of the Islanders’ ahead core final season. Underneath Roy, he was dominant, ending the season with 30 objectives, tied for his profession excessive, and 54 factors, three factors shy of his profession excessive. It was his finest season as an Islander, and whereas regression is probably going, it shouldn’t be a lot.

Palmieri didn’t get fortunate, he simply stepped up massive time. He had 28.7 xG, the second-highest on the crew, and dominated on the powerplay. His 10 powerplay objectives and 20 powerplay factors are going to lower, however his underwhelming even energy level manufacturing ought to enhance. Additionally, the third member of the second line will probably be a figuring out consider figuring out if he can construct on final season, and even simply keep the manufacturing.

Maxim Tsyplakov

16 Targets – 16 Assists – 32 Factors – 75 Video games Performed

Since Maxim Tsyplakov has by no means performed within the NHL, projecting his stat line this season is anybody’s guess. After scoring 31 objectives in 65 KHL video games final season, his NHL potential is north of 25 objectives. Nonetheless, it’s solely doable he fits up in only a handful of NHL video games attributable to his inexperience.

Maxim Tsyplakov, New York Islanders (Jess Starr/The Hockey Writers)

Together with his spectacular skillset {and professional} playstyle, Tsyplakov has a excessive probability of meshing nicely within the Islanders’ center six. He’ll possible begin the season slowly, however the confidence administration has in his recreation is palpable.

Kyle MacLean

8 Targets – 12 Assists – 20 Factors – 69 Video games Performed

Kyle MacLean was a enjoyable story final season, and whereas he’s unlikely to grow to be a lineup common, he will probably be an important utility possibility for the Islanders this season. He can play heart and wing, kill penalties, and throw the physique round. He performs like a youthful Cizikas. Whereas his offensive manufacturing is not going to stand out, he will probably be an important asset to deploy within the backside six as a shutdown ahead.

Simon Holmstrom

12 Targets – 14 Assists – 26 Factors – 63 Video games Performed

Simon Holmstrom is an excellent shooter however doesn’t discover high-danger possibilities typically. He had a 20.8% taking pictures share final season, the very best on the Islanders and the third highest within the NHL (min. 50 video games). As nice a shooter as he’s, this isn’t sustainable. Whereas he’s prone to regress from his 15 objectives final season, he ought to grow to be a extra well-rounded contributor who exhibits the upside to develop right into a future 20+ objective scorer.

Pierre Engvall

6 Targets – 8 Assists – 14 Factors – 38 Video games Performed

Pierre Engvall was positioned on waivers by the Islanders previous to the season, however he’s unlikely to stay in Bridgeport all season. His influence final season went beneath the radar given his inconsistencies, however he’s a speedy winger who can help transition within the center six. He ranked fourth in objectives share and first in anticipated objectives share amongst all Islanders’ forwards. It’s unclear when he will probably be given an opportunity to return to the NHL, however it’s solely doable he’ll return for the second half and grow to be a lineup mainstay.

Different Forwards

Oliver Wahlstrom – 5 Targets – 5 Assists – 10 Factors – 39 Video games Performed

Julien Gauthier – 5 Targets – 3 Assists – 8 Factors – 36 Video games Performed

Hudson Fasching – 0 Targets – 2 Help – 1 Level – 9 Video games Performed

William Dufour – 0 Targets – 0 Assists – 0 Factors – 2 Video games Performed

Noah Dobson

11 Targets – 63 Assists – 74 Factors – 82 Video games Performed

Noah Dobson is poised for a dominant 2024-25 season. He was among the finest defensemen within the NHL final season, staying within the high 4 in betting odds for the James Norris Trophy till the ultimate few weeks of the season. He completed his marketing campaign with 10 objectives and 70 factors in 78 video games whereas averaging over 24 and a half minutes per recreation.

Frederik Andersen Carolina Hurricanes
Frederik Andersen of the Carolina Hurricanes makes a save towards Noah Dobson of the New York Islanders in the course of the third interval in Recreation One of many First Spherical of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs (Picture by Cato Cataldo/NHLI through Getty Photos)

Heading into the season, Dobson is prone to see much less ice time, particularly on the penalty kill, for the reason that protection is absolutely wholesome. Whereas this will likely lower his offensive alternatives, his contemporary legs will enable him to maximise the ice time he does obtain. With this, his level manufacturing ought to stay comparatively related, however his major level manufacturing ought to enhance from 45 factors (10 objectives and 35 major assists) to round 50 to 55 whole major factors.

Alexander Romanov

3 Targets – 15 Assists – 18 Factors – 82 Video games Performed

As Dobson’s associate, Alexander Romanov’s job is all about protection, and he’s nice at it. He posted a career-high seven objectives and 22 factors and is prone to regress, however ought to nonetheless put up respectable numbers. Whereas my prediction has him at simply three objectives and 18 factors, I’d not be stunned if he completed the season nearer to 5 objectives and 25 factors, particularly if accidents begin piling up and he must eat extra ice time like he did final season.

Ryan Pulock

5 Targets – 23 Assists – 28 Factors – 80 Video games Performed

Even along with his accidents final season, Ryan Pulock put up respectable numbers. Whereas he’s able to offering a strong stage of offense, Roy is prone to deploy him in a extra defensive-centric position with Dobson and Mike Reilly’s offensive capabilities and Scott Mayfield’s defensive uncertainties. This isn’t to say Pulock will probably be taken off the powerplay, however he’s prone to see extra shifts starting within the defensive zone than he’s used to, limiting his offensive upside.

Scott Mayfield

2 Targets – 10 Assists – 12 Factors – 80 Video games Performed

Mayfield has by no means been a degree producer and this season must be no completely different. His analysis on the finish of the season could have zero point out of his offense and focus solely on his protection, so predicting his stat line doesn’t imply a lot. Regardless, he’s prone to discover the again of the subsequent a few instances on pictures from the purpose, and he may lead a handful of odd-man rushes that flip into objectives.

Adam Pelech

3 Targets – 15 Assists – 18 Factors – 75 Video games Performed

Adam Pelech has struggled to remain on the ice in current seasons, so getting 75 video games out of him, whatever the offensive manufacturing, could be a win for the Islanders. When on the ice, he’s a sneaky good skater and passer who can drive some offense. Nonetheless, along with his utilization as a defensive defenseman and minimal offensive alternatives, it’s arduous to see him scoring quite a lot of objectives and 20 factors.

Mike Reilly

5 Targets – 24 Assists – 29 Factors – 74 Video games Performed

Reilly was an important addition to the Islanders’ protection final season, and whereas his level manufacturing is prone to lower with the protection returning to well being, he ought to stay a beneficial contributor on the third pairing. A good portion of his factors will stem from the powerplay, however he must be an important associate to Mayfield and drive offense by way of the impartial zone at even energy. Whereas I’ve him projected for 5 objectives and 29 factors, a seven to eight-goal, 35+ level season may very well be within the playing cards if he receives an expanded position.

Different Defenseman

Samuel Bolduc 0 Targets – 0 Assists – 0 Factors – 3 Recreation Performed

Grant Hutton – 0 Targets – 0 Assists – 0 Factors – 1 Recreation Performed

Dennis Cholowski – 0 Targets – 3 Assists – 0 Factors – 15 Video games Performed

Ilya Sorokin

26-17-6 – .917 SV% – 2.59 GAA – 16.28 GSAx

Ilya Sorokin had a shaky 2023-24 season, going 25-19-12 with a .908 save share (SV%), 3.01 objectives towards common (GAA), and 1.4 objectives saved above anticipated (GSAx), in keeping with MoneyPuck. Nonetheless, his disappointing season stemmed from his intense workload, and the offseason again harm he sustained may restrict his workload to start this season.

Ilya Sorokin New York Islanders
Ilya Sorokin, New York Islanders (Jess Starr/The Hockey Writers)

With the 2023-24 season behind us, Sorokin is poised to return to type now that he’s training at full pace. Pelech, Pulock, and Mayfield are absolutely wholesome, that means Sorokin ought to face a decrease nightly workload. His numbers on the penalty kill final season have been dangerous (.830 SV%, 10.36 GAA, and -8.5 GSAx), so there may be room for enchancment there. Notably, he’s nonetheless an important goaltender, ending tenth in high-danger SV%, in keeping with NHL Edge. Contemplating how poorly he performed and nonetheless salvaged a optimistic GSAx, it’s arduous to think about he doesn’t shoot again into the premier goaltenders within the NHL dialog.

Semyon Varlamov

15-15-3 – .915 SV% – 2.83 GAA – 6.91 GSAx

As nice of a season as Semyon Varlamov had in 2023-24, he’s prone to barely regress in 2024-25. There may be not a lot to debate along with his recreation. He offers the Islanders an opportunity to win every recreation, and he hardly ever offers up “weak” objectives. If Sorokin can return to type, Varlamov will see much less recreation motion. If Sorokin struggles or will get injured, Varlamov could be an important interim beginning goaltender.

The Islanders season begins on Thu, Oct. 10 at UBS Enviornment towards the Utah Hockey Membership. From there, the crew will play three straight video games on the street towards Central Division opponents. The Islanders’ first recreation towards a Metropolitan Division crew will probably be on Oct. 25 towards the Devils at Prudential Middle.

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