Noche UFC 306’s finest betting props, parlays and picks | O’Malley vs. Merab

Noche UFC 306, offered by Riyadh Season, goes down this weekend (Sat., Sept. 14, 2024) from contained in the Las Vegas Sphere. The pay-per-view (PPV) major occasion has Sean O’Malley defending his UFC Bantamweight crown towards primary contender Merab Dvalishvili. The co-main is Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko 3 for the UFC girls’s Flyweight title.

Additionally on the primary card is Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes, Daniel Zellhuber vs. Esteban Ribovics and Ronaldo Rodriguez vs. Ode Osbourne.

The “Prelims” headliner is Irene Aldana vs. Norma Dumont. The shortened prelims card additionally boasts Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Aoriqileng.

As all the time, there’s heaps to wager on this card and we’ve acquired odds for all of the fights under:

UFC 306 Primary Card Cash Line Odds

Sean O’Malley (-130) vs. Merab Dvalishvili (+110)

The large questions on this bout is how will Sean O’Malley deal with the most effective takedown artist he’s confronted in his profession and the way will Merab Dvalishvili deal with the most effective striker he’s confronted in his profession?

Dvalishvili’s standing as finest takedown artist is supported by his ridiculous 6.43 takedowns per quarter-hour. Although, his share is simply 36%. He’s a quantity takedown artist and he doesn’t get deterred from a stuffed shot right here and there. Keep in mind he tried 49 takedowns towards Petr Yan, succeeding on simply 11 of these. However once you spam takedowns like that you just solely want just a few to land to win rounds.

O’Malley’s placing leads the division. It’s as potent as it’s correct and it comes at a quantity that could be very exhausting to deal with. He lands 7.63 vital strikes a minute and his accuracy is 61%. He solely trails Umar Nurmagomedov in placing accuracy, however that quantity is inflated for the Russian by how a lot of his strikes are landed on the bottom. What makes O’Malley’s placing so particular is how he’s in a position to get his offense off with out getting hit in return. His placing differential of 4.24, leads the division by far.

The very best wrestlers O’Malley has confronted have been Aljiman Sterling and Petr Yan. Sterling went 0-2 on takedowns towards O’Malley. The second of these makes an attempt might be seen within the video under, at the beginning of spherical 2.

O’Malley confirmed nice velocity and steadiness to remain on his toes after Sterling seized upon his slip and tried a single-leg takedown. That may be the final takedown try of the struggle, since O’Malley KO’d Sterling shortly afterwards.

In opposition to Yan, O’Malley had a harder time staying on his toes. He was taken down six occasions on 13 makes an attempt.

Test the three:41 mark of the above video for the primary of these, the place Yan will get O’Malley pinned on the cage after which degree modifications to execute a double-leg takedown. On the ten:06 mark Yan lands one other double-leg takedown. He does this regardless of Daniel Cormier saying that O’Malley ought to have the ability to defend it and that Yan would want to change to a single leg. Yan scored one other double-leg on the 15:10 mark.

Right here’s a helpful video exhibiting Dvalishvili’s takedown repertoire, albeit from three years in the past.

Dvalishvili does just like the blast single-leg, loads. However he’s greater than able to the managed double-leg we noticed Yan succeed with over O’Malley.

I believe O’Malley will have the ability to defend a number of what Dvalishvili throws at him (particularly takedowns which aren’t double-legs towards the fence). If he has one foot down, I like his possibilities of with the ability to hop out of hassle.

I additionally like O’Malley’s possibilities of ending the takedown menace along with his placing, as he did to Aljo. Dvalishvili has an important chin, however we all know that as a result of he will get hit. Henry Cejudo rocked him early of their struggle. Dvalishvili has by no means been KO’d, however he’s additionally by no means confronted somebody with one punch knockout energy/timing like a major O’Malley.

I believe KOing Dvalishvili could also be too massive an ask, however I can see O’Malley hurting Dvalishvili sufficient that his takedown menace diminishes within the mid-point and later portion of the struggle. And if these takedowns get lazy, I believe O’Malley will have the ability to keep away from them and proceed to attain factors on the toes.

Prediction: Sean O’Malley through unanimous resolution (+400).

Photograph by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC through Getty Photographs

Alexa Grasso (-140) vs. Valentina Shevchenko (+120)

Alexa Grasso has dimmed the legacy of Valentina Shevchenko barely over the previous few years and tormented the previous champion on account of her means to grab upon massive moments of their fights. Of their first affair this meant Grasso was in a position to pounce on a poorly conceived/executed spinning again kick to attain a rear bare choke (see it right here). Of their rematch, which led to a cut up draw, Grasso earned her factors with the judges because of a knockdown and an in depth submission try.

Grasso ought to have misplaced the rematch. Her scorecards benefited enormously from a particularly beneficiant 10-8 she was awarded by one decide within the fifth spherical. Whether or not it was honest or not, it’s simply proof how harmful Shevchenko’s type might be to her personal possibilities of successful. Shevchenko has dominated people up to now and scored some depraved stoppages (keep in mind what she did to poor Jessica Eye?). However she’s additionally coasted by a good few and he or she could have misplaced her belt sooner had Taila Santos managed to transform on her alternatives on the bottom.

The chances are razor skinny on this trilogy struggle and so they should be. Right now of writing Grasso’s line has moved shorter, placing her at -140 and pushing Shevchenko out to +120. If Shevchenko closes with plus odds this would be the first time that has occurred since she fought Holly Holm, at bantamweight in 2016 (a struggle she gained). The one different time she had plus odds have been when she debuted towards Sarah Kaufman in 2015 (a struggle she gained). In her two losses to Amanda Nunes, Shevchenko closed at -115 and -135,

So except you suppose Shevchenko is spent at 36-years-old you ought to be fairly intrigued about getting plus cash on one of many best girls’s blended martial artists ever.

I’m very tempted to put my cash with Shevchenko right here… however… It’s Noche UFC.

Valentina is cool as might be. And that’s nice more often than not. She doesn’t let the event get to her. However she additionally doesn’t let the event buoy her.

Grasso is extra emotional (in a constructive manner) and I like her possibilities of rising into the event right here and defeating Shevchenko not regardless of, however with thanks, to all the trimmings that include Noche UFC, the Sphere and the Riyadh sponsored salute to Mexican heritage.

She’s not afraid to let her palms go towards Shevchenko. Shevchenko has made a profession on preventing gals who can’t say the identical. I fancy Grasso’s possibilities of touchdown massive punches of their exchanges. I believe the ability in her offense, and her want to come back forwards, will probably be what finally will get her the nod right here.

Prediction: Alexa Grasso through unanimous resolution (+350).

Photograph by Ian Maule/Getty Photographs

Brian Ortega (+155) vs. Diego Lopes (-185)

Since this struggle fell by on the evening of UFC 303, Diego Lopes’ inventory has risen and Brian Ortega’s has fallen — as mirrored within the odds. The chances have been close to even once they closed for UFC 303.

Lopes didn’t seem like a world beater towards Dan Ige. However given the scenario, I believe he deserves credit score for getting previous a troublesome ultra-short discover alternative whereas shouldering the entire strain of the bout.

My tackle this match-up stays the identical because the final time we mentioned it. I believe Lopes is best than Ortega on the toes and that they’re even on the bottom. Due to that I imagine Lopes has extra methods to win this struggle, so I’m siding with him (and the bookies).

Ortega simply will get hit too usually to take him on this match-up. He makes use of his grappling to get out of these conditions typically, however I don’t suppose he’ll discover a lot respite with Lopes. I can see Ortega getting harm in an trade after which both pulling guard or going for a lazy takedown, solely to get swept after which put to sleep.

He’s solely 33, however the harm he’s taken, ought to have us contemplating him 5 years older than that. The wars he’s been in have virtually actually taken years off his life (a phrase Spencer Fisher as soon as used with me when speaking a couple of struggle he had with Josh Neer).

It’s unhappy to not see a lot of a path ahead for Ortega within the Featherweight division. If there’s a manner forwards, although, I doubt it entails Lopes.

Prediction: Diego Lopes through submission (+500).

Photograph by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC through Getty Photographs

Esteban Ribovics (+205) vs. Daniel Zellhuber (-250)

Esteban Ribovics acquired the most effective win of his profession final day trip, starching Terrance McKinney with a head kick in about thirty seconds (see it right here). That was his first end within the Octagon since he graduated from the Contender Sequence in 2022.

Daniel Zellhuber was upset in his first struggle submit Contender Sequence. Trey Ogden was in a position to chew him up with leg kicks and earn a call win. Zellhuber got here into that bout as a -390 favourite. Since then he’s crushed Lando Vannata and earned bonuses for his anaconda choke towards Christos Giagos (see it right here) and his struggle of the evening with Francisco Prado.

Zellhuber confirmed clear placing and a number of toughness in that struggle. Ribovics is coming off a flashy win right here, however I believe the UFC see this as a match-up that favors Zellhuber (somebody I’m certain they’d like to craft into a giant time draw).

Zellhuber has an eight inch attain benefit over Ribovics and I believe that will probably be telling. Zellhuber has proven that he might be hit, his vital strike differential is simply 0.8. Ribovics’ differential is 3 times that. And Ribovic has proven he has KO energy, although principally towards scrubs on the South American circuit.

I believe Ribovics is a extra harmful opponent than the UFC would possibly suppose he’s. However I nonetheless suppose Zellhuber will have the ability to win this struggle. I see him retaining this at vary and successful one other enjoyable brawl.

Prediction: Daniel Zellhuber through unanimous resolution (+125).

Photograph by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC through Getty Photographs

Ode Osbourne (+110) vs. Ronaldo Rodriguez (-130)

After a loss on the Contender Sequence in 2020, Ronaldo Rodriguez has been on a tear. He went 5-0 on the Mexican scene after which rejoined UFC in February for his or her Mexico Metropolis occasion. In his debut he was relentless in his pursuit of Denys Bondar earlier than submitting him within the second spherical (see it right here).

Ode Osbourne is 4-4 in UFC and, like Ribovics, appears like a man who’s making up the numbers. He’s coming off back-to-back rear bare choke losses (to Jafel Filho and Asu Almabayev). His different two losses are KOs to Tyson Nam and Manel Kape (watch that right here).

Osbourne can have a number of dimension on Rodriguez, however I believe he’s going to wrestle towards the strain and exercise the a lot youthful Rodriguez will convey. I believe there’s an opportunity Osbourne will get the undesirable hat-trick of RNC losses on Saturday. Although, Rodriguez has an important guillotine, too.

Prediction: Ronaldo Rodriguez through submission (+300).

UFC 306 ‘Late Prelims’ Underneath Card Odds

Photograph by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC through Getty Photographs

Irene Aldana (-120) vs. Norma Dumont (Evens)

Irene Aldana has been given a second to shine right here. This might be dangerous information for her. Being the featured Prelim on the Sphere is a giant deal and he or she might need her personal quick movie or video bundle blaring throughout the partitions of the world. This pressurized atmosphere has not served her effectively up to now.

The most important alternative of Aldana’s profession got here in 2023 when she acquired to face Amanda Nunes for the Bantamweight title. This was a Nunes who already had one foot out the door. Nevertheless, Aldana froze in that struggle and acted like she didn’t wish to be there. Ultimately she was a simple final meal for The Lionness.

The earlier time she misplaced was to Holly Holm. That loss was in 2020 on Combat Island, in her first ever major occasion. This was one other struggle the place Aldana shrunk from the second and appeared incapable of placing out the sort of effort she wanted to compete.

Each these excessive profile losses got here after Aldana scored massive stoppage victories (away from the glare of the primary occasion). In 2019 she floored Ketlen Viera with a left hook (see it right here) and in 2023 she scored an upkick physique shot KO over Macy Chiasson (see it right here).

On her evening, often when she will get to struggle in relative obscurity, Aldana has among the finest boxing within the division and is likely one of the few in her division to posses one-punch KO energy.

Norma Dumont is extra versatile than Aldana. She’s a great striker, with a sanda background, and boasts an excellent 66% placing protection and simply 1.89 vital strikes absorbed per minute. Final day trip she held Germaine de Randamie to only 16 vital strikes over three rounds. She additionally took De Randamie down on six of eight makes an attempt.

Aldana is best at placing and takedown defender than De Randamie typically. However is she that good beneath the brilliant lights? I’m not so certain.

If the event will get to Aldana and he or she’s timid, I believe Dumont will have the ability to win a measured placing battle and likewise punctuate rounds with a takedown right here and there.

Prediction: Norma Dumont through resolution.

Photograph by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC through Getty Photographs

Ignacio Bahamondes (-105) vs. Manuel Torres (-115)

Manuel Torres earned a POTN bonus along with his first spherical submission of Chris Duncan in February (see it right here). That was his third post-fight bonus in a row, following his brutal elbow KO over Nikolas Motta (test it out right here) and his proper hook towards Frank Camacho (see it right here). These three fights got here after he gained his Contender Sequence struggle through TKO.

The Chilean Ignacio Bahamondes is coming off a head kick KO over Cristos Giagos (see it right here). That adopted a decent unanimous resolution loss to the in-form L’udovit Klein. Bahamondes additionally has wins over Trey Ogden, Rongzhu and Roosevelt Roberts (through wheel kick — see it right here).

This might be a really enjoyable struggle and I don’t suppose we’ll want the judges.

Mixed these guys land shut to twenty vital strikes per minute. Torres is the extra correct, although, and that might be what makes the distinction right here. I believe this one goes to finish with each males exchanging and Torres being the one to land the final punch.

Torres can be the safer wager since he’s proven much more want and skill to take the bout to the bottom (and end fights there) when the chance presents itself.

Prediction: Manuel Torres through TKO.

Photograph credit score ought to learn Luis Marin/ Eyepix Group/Future Publishing through Getty Photographs

Yazmin Jauregui (-550) vs. Ketlen Souza (+375)

Yazmin Jauregui a really massive favourite right here and it’s straightforward to see why. The 25-year-old former Combate champion has regarded nice in her UFC profession up to now, aside from a 20 second KO by the hands of Denise Gomes final 12 months (see it right here). She was a -380 favourite in that struggle. In February Jauregui rebounded from that loss to beat the gritty Sam Hughes through unanimous resolution.

Ketlen Souza is a former Invicta champ, however she’s but to depart a lot of an impression within the Octagon. She misplaced to Karine Silva through a knee bar in her debut (see it right here) final June. In April she rebounded with a unanimous resolution win over Marnic Mann.

Souza is a heavy striker, however she’s not notably fast. That is one other match-up made to suit the theme of the evening and I believe we’ll see the Mexican fighter get her hand raised. Jauregui is just too fast and too technical to get caught by Souza.

Prediction: Yazmin Jauregui through unanimous resolution.

Photograph credit score ought to learn Luis Marin/ Eyepix Group/Future Publishing through Getty Photographs

Joshua Van (-235) vs. Edgar Chairez (+190)

Joshua Van is coming in on quick discover right here for Kevin Borjas. We simply noticed Van get KO’d by a Charles Johnson uppercut at UFC Denver (see it right here). Van was successful that struggle, however nonetheless, I don’t like somebody coming again so quickly after a stoppage loss. The bookies don’t appear to thoughts, although.

Edgar Chairez got here in heavy for his struggle with Daniel Lacerda in February, which he gained by triangle choke. That was a rematch of a Chris Tognoni botched struggle from final September (see it right here).

Regardless of the query marks over Van’s health for this bout, he’s nonetheless the higher fighter and I believe his exercise and quantity placing will probably be an excessive amount of for Chairez.

Prediction: Joshua Van through unanimous resolution.

Photograph by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC through Getty Photographs

Raul Rosas Jr. (-850) vs. Aoriqileng (+500)

Right here’s our largest favourite on the cardboard. Raul Rosas Jr. has been given the opening slot of Noche UFC 306 and I don’t see how loses this. Vegas doesn’t miss on these massive favorites so please don’t get tempted by Aoriqileng’s +500 odds.

Aoriqileng has been submitted by rubes on the Chinese language regional circuit. He’s not going to have the ability to cease Rosas Jr. taking him down or slapping on a sub.

Prediction: Raul Rosas Jr. through submission.

UFC 306 Prop Bets And Parlays

Right here’s a few issues that look fascinating (on DraftKings) for this Saturday’s UFC 306 card …

Two choose parlay: Diego Lopes to beat Brian Ortega and Ronaldo Rodriguez to beat Ode Osbourne (+165)

I believe Diego Lopes is on the rise and that he’s catching Brian Ortega at a good time. Ronaldo Rodriguez is a extremely thrilling fighter and he’s been reward wrapped a journeyman right here on the Sphere.

Alexa Grasso to win by Cut up or Majority Determination (+750)

Grasso vs. Shevchenko is an in depth struggle. We’ve seen it earlier than. And ladies’s fights dispropriantely finish in cut up and majority selections. I don’t suppose we’ll get a end on this one, so these +750 odds look fairly tasty.

Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili – Level to be Deducted – YES (+2000)

Again with my favourite prop wager. It has to money in the future, proper? We’ve come shut up to now, however perhaps the chaos of the Sphere will assist us right here. This occasion might be bonkers and there is likely to be distractions abound for fighters, referees and judges. We’d get some whacky stuff occur. This level deduction might occur if O’Malley grabs the fence or if he will get just a little too pokey along with his out-stretched fingers. Or maybe it’ll include Dvalishvili grabbing gloves or shorts. To ensure that this wager to work, although, referees want to really punish fouls for as soon as. Regardless of that that is nonetheless a enjoyable one to root for on struggle nights.

Photograph by: Joe Sohm/Visions of America/Common Photographs Group through Getty Photographs

UFC 306 Ballot Time

Which of the sooner props and parlays do you just like the look of probably the most?

What else are you liking for this occasion? Hit us up within the feedback under.

LIVE! Watch UFC 306 PPV At The Sphere On ESPN+ Right here!

NOCHE UFC AT THE SPHERE! Final Preventing Championship (UFC) will stage a once-in-a-lifetime pay-per-view (PPV) extravaganza on Sat., Sept. 14, 2024, to honor Mexican Independence Day throughout Riyadh Season, an unlikely mashup topped by the Bantamweight major occasion between reigning champion, Sean O’Malley, and sliced-and-diced No. 1 contender Merab Dvalishvili. In UFC 306’s championship co-headliner, present Flyweight titleholder, Alexa Grasso, will settle her rating with fellow Final Fighter (TUF) 32 coach, Valentina Shevchenko, within the remaining struggle of their epic 125-pound trilogy. UFC 306’s PPV major card (see it right here) will even function Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes, Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Aoriqileng, and a lot extra! It’s must-watch motion from “Sin Metropolis!” UFC 306’s begin time is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET (Prelims card) and 10 p.m. ET (PPV major card).

Don’t miss a single second of EPIC face-punching motion!

Do not forget that MMAmania.com will ship LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow protection of the complete UFC 306 struggle card, beginning with the “Prelims” play-by-play proper right here and adopted by the “Primary Card” play-by-play proper right here. The motion begins on ESPNNEWS/SPN+ with the “Prelims” scheduled to start at 7:30 p.m. ET. These are adopted by the primary card begin time at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV.

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