Many followers say that the Ottawa Senators will make the playoffs subsequent spring. I wouldn’t guess on that.
I’m not saying that the Senators’ president of hockey operations and common supervisor (GM) Steve Staios hasn’t made his membership higher this offseason, although. In reality, they’re in a greater scenario to compete for a berth within the playoffs than they’ve been in years. It’s simply that I don’t suppose they’re a playoff workforce but.
Let’s take a look at among the causes that the Senators will probably be on the golf course subsequent April as an alternative of entertaining their long-suffering followers in playoff motion at Canadian Tire Centre.
Senators Compete in Powerful Division & Convention
The Atlantic Division’s Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers, the perennially aggressive Boston Bruins and the Toronto Maple Leafs – a workforce that as of late is nice sufficient to make the playoffs, however not a lot else – are odds-on favourites to take the Atlantic Division’s three playoff spots. It might take a courageous punter to place cash on the Senators knocking out considered one of them for a playoff berth.
The one approach for the Senators to make the playoffs is to win considered one of two wild card spots within the Jap Convention. That will probably be very onerous because the convention’s Metropolitan Division is stacked with proficient groups, together with the New Jersey Devils, Washington Capitals, Pittsburgh Penguins and Philadelphia Flyers. These groups, together with the Atlantic’s Tampa Bay Lightning, will probably be formidable contenders for the convention’s two wild card spots.
If all of this wasn’t unhealthy sufficient, the Detroit Crimson Wings and Buffalo Sabres will probably be nipping on the Senators’ heels within the standings. Like Ottawa, they too are rebuilding and haven’t seen playoff motion in years. The distress of a protracted playoff drought will drive them simply as onerous this season because it does the Senators.
Goaltending Is the Senators’ Greatest X-Consider 2024-25
Linus Ullmark is a large improve between the pipes for Ottawa. The 2023 Vezina Trophy winner, along with his profession goals-against common (GAA) of two.51 and save proportion (SV%) of .918, is certain to place a big variety of extra wins on the ledger for the Senators this season.
In a latest article, my colleague at The Hockey Writers, Jacob Billington, argued that Ullmark was one of many two greatest x-factors Ottawa faces this season. I agree, however not due to any doubts about his efficiency; qualms that Billington appears to harbour. What Billington didn’t speak about and will concern Staios is Ullmark’s contract. It expires on the finish of this season and what should preserve Staios awake at night time is that Ullmark appears to be in no rush to signal an extension.
Associated: Senators’ Two Greatest X-Elements in 2024-25
If he isn’t keen to re-sign in Ottawa, then the Senators will put him on the commerce block on the 2025 Commerce Deadline. They aren’t going to let him go for nothing, and if he leaves, it may torpedo the Senators’ playoff hopes.
Even when Ullmark extends his contract, questions in regards to the Senators’ goaltending received’t finish there. NHL beginning goalies, even workhorses, don’t often play greater than 50 to 60 video games in a season, and that’s if they continue to be wholesome. Meaning backup Anton Forsberg will probably be beginning 30 video games or extra.
Forsberg’s GAA and SV% at 3.10 and .905, respectively, are beneath the league common. The Senators will want better-than-average goaltending than he has proven he can ship. In the event you’re questioning whether or not common NHL goaltending could be present in Belleville, it may’t. At the very least not now in prospects Mads Sogaard and Leevi Merilainen.
Senators’ Firepower Not Sufficient
The Senators have been pressured to rely an excessive amount of on their top-six final season, and so they didn’t ship. Mixed with a dismal bottom-six, the workforce ranked 30th within the league final season in objectives scored, racking up a median of simply 3.05 per sport.
Regardless of all of the hoopla about how proficient the Senators’ younger forwards are, no Senators have been among the many league’s high 10 point-getters final season. In 2023-24, the factors complete Brady Tkachuk put up was solely adequate to earn him a rank of 42nd within the league, and he was the Senators’ finest. Tim Stutzle was subsequent at 52nd, down from the 19th spot in 2022-23, when he posted 90 factors.
Insert the reasons for final 12 months right here, however they don’t change the truth that there are big query marks across the top-six this season. Can Stutzle return to his earlier kind? Will Josh Norris keep wholesome, and even when he does, can he reside as much as the towering expectations the Senators had of him once they handed him an eight-year contract that pays him virtually $8 million per 12 months? Can Shane Pinto take the following step?
Coming into free company, the Senators knew they’d so as to add some firepower to their third and fourth strains. Its dearth was obvious final season with the bottom-six marking up the scoresheet for a paltry 12% p.c of the workforce’s complete factors. Profitable groups within the NHL will need to have a bottom-six that poses a scoring menace.
Right here’s what the Senators’ bottom-six is projected to be on opening night time:
| Left Wing | Centre | Proper Wing |
| David Perron | Ridly Greig | Michael Amadio |
| Noah Gregor | Zack Ostapchuk | Zack MacEwan |
Primarily based on the factors these gamers racked up final season and assuming rookie centreman Ostapchuk will get not less than 10 factors this season, the Senators’ bottom-six can moderately be anticipated to place up 125 factors. There’s no query that might be a marked enchancment from final season when regulars on these strains notched a dismal 96 factors.
That Staios improved his bottom-six scoring, which was one of many worst within the NHL, is past debate. Even so, that’s not the query. Did he enhance it sufficient?
On that, the reply is perhaps, however simply barely. If the perfect the Senators can hope to do subsequent season is win a wild card spot, then you should ask how their projected bottom-six did point-wise in comparison with the 2 groups who did seize the Jap Convention’s two wild card spots final season – Tampa Bay and Washington.
The Bolts’ bottom-six notched 113 factors final marketing campaign for a complete of about 14% of the workforce’s complete factors. So, it’s not unreasonable to conclude that the Senators’ improved bottom-six places them on par with every other contenders for a wild card spot subsequent spring. That’s, till you take a look at the Caps’ bottom-six. They put up 136 factors.
All of this could inform Staios and his teaching workers that whereas they’ve actually received a greater bottom-six to work with this season, it’s not at all superior to these groups they’ll must elbow out of the way in which for a ticket to the playoffs. Perron, Gregor and Amadio must ship on the expectations administration had of them once they have been signed earlier this summer time, and Greig and Ostapchuk must take the following step of their improvement.
Senators’ Particular Groups a Lengthy Approach From Respectability
On the penalty kill (PK), the Senators ranked 29th within the league final season. For perspective, final season, the Lightning ranked fifth and the Capitals 18th. On the ability play (PP), Ottawa completed 23rd within the league. Tampa was ranked primary and Washington 18th.
So, has Ottawa accomplished sufficient within the offseason to enhance its particular groups? Are they squads that examine to these skating for different wild card winners? It received’t be simple for the Senators’ particular groups to erase their dismal numbers from final season and return to respectability. It’s a protracted climb out of the NHL’s basement for his or her particular groups.
Ottawa’s Third Defence Pairing a Huge Query Mark
Playoff groups are often deep on their again finish. That’s an issue for the Senators with their third defence pairing.
The job on left defence belongs to Tyler Kleven. That claims extra about how naked the Senators’ prospect cabinet is than it does in regards to the 22-year-old, 6-foot-4, 205-pound bruiser from Fargo, North Dakota. He’s just about all of the Senators’ depth at that place. Not solely that, however with just below $2 million in cap area left, it’s not like Staios can herald extra high-end expertise for his blue line.
On the suitable facet of the third defence pairing, it comes right down to a selection between Travis Hamonic, an oft-injured and growing older veteran, and Jacob Bernard-Docker, who had a shaky maintain on that spot all through final season. The Senators positioned him on waivers simply earlier than the beginning of final season, and hearsay had it that Staios didn’t rule out the potential of placing him on the commerce block finally season’s commerce deadline.
Exterior of those two, prospects Maxence Guenette and Nikolas Mantinpalo are the Senators’ finest choices on the suitable facet of the third pairing. But, Guenette is simply 23 years previous with solely seven NHL video games to his credit score. As for Mantinpalo, he’s a product of his native Finland’s Liiga and has performed just one season within the American Hockey League with the Belleville Senators.
Senators Are Higher, However Are They Good Sufficient for the 2025 Playoffs?
This summer time, Staios has made the Senators deeper, and so they’re arguably higher on the blue line and in aim. Not solely that, however their core is undamaged and so far as anybody can inform, it’s wholesome. Staios did the whole lot that might moderately be anticipated of him this summer time given the gamers out there in free company and his restricted cap area.
However was it sufficient for the Senators to make the playoffs for the primary time in eight lengthy years? I don’t suppose so.
