Wednesday, July 17, 2024

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Purchase or Promote on Street to Breeders’ Cup: Brooklyn Stakes Winner Subsequent

The fields for the 14 races that comprise the Breeders’ Cup World Championships actually start to come back into focus in summer season and fall. This common function will provide a snapshot profile of one of many earlier weekend’s standout stars, often a Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” Problem Collection winner, and whether or not I’m shopping for or promoting their probabilities to win Nov. 1-2 at Del Mar. This week, repeat Brooklyn Stakes winner Subsequent prolonged his successful streak to 5 with among the best races we’ve seen within the U.S. this 12 months.

Accomplishments: Coach Doug Cowans claimed Subsequent in April 2022 at Keeneland on behalf of proprietor Michael Foster for $62,500. A claiming race, just like the aforementioned seven-furlong dash at Keeneland, is a race during which every horse entered is eligible to be bought at a set value.

The grey or roan Not This Time gelding has rewarded his new connections with eight wins in 10 begins since he was claimed.

First Cowans tried him again on the grass and he ran properly with one win in two tries in two-turn grass races, however the true breakthrough got here when Subsequent romped by 18 ¼ lengths in a 1 ½-mile stakes race that was washed off the turf at Delaware Park in September 2022. After that, he has competed completely at marathon distances on grime tracks. A racehorse who had 4 wins in 13 begins previous to that rating in Delaware has remodeled into an nearly unbeatable drive with seven wins in subsequent eight races, all at 1 3/8 miles or longer on grime.

Competing at marathon distance races on grime is about as area of interest as you get in Thoroughbred racing in 2024, however the actuality is that Subsequent has been totally dominant, particularly throughout his present five-race successful streak that started with a 2 ¼-length win in final 12 months’s Brooklyn.

He gained the $150,000 Birdstone Stakes at 1 ¾ miles by 11 ¾ lengths in July 2023 at Saratoga after which the $200,000 Greenwood Cup Stakes by 25 lengths going 1 ½ miles on a sloppy observe at Parx Racing in September in his closing race as a 5-year-old.

Subsequent opened 2024 with an 11 ¼-length win within the 1 ½-mile Isaac Murphy Marathon Stakes Could 1 at Churchill Downs earlier than scoring a repeat win within the Brooklyn Stakes by 9 ¼ lengths July 5. His model is solely to crank out one sturdy eighth of a mile after one other and put on the opposition into submission. As Day by day Racing Kind handicapper David Aragona famous (see under), his closing three eighths of a mile in :12.02, :11.88, and :11.89 bounce off the web page in a 1 3/8-mile race just like the Brooklyn.

Given the Brooklyn is simply an eighth of a mile shorter than the Longines Breeders’ Cup Traditional, it’s honest to surprise if the 1 ¼-mile, $7 million race would possibly develop into the long-range goal.

“The issue is, the tempo goes to alter once you begin shortening issues down. I fear about that with him,” Cowans instructed BloodHorse with regard to making an attempt shorter distances. “Early on he likes to be up shut, and he has some pure pace, however he likes to get right into a rhythm as soon as he breaks out of there with that pure pace. I don’t learn about placing him right into a :46 [half-mile]. That’s not his model. … He simply loves this, and we’re going to try to preserve doing it with him.”

Velocity Figures: Subsequent has been on an absolute heater when it comes to pace figures, setting or equaling a career-best Equibase Velocity Determine in every of his final 4 begins with a 104-109-109-110 in the course of the dazzling run. His Beyer Velocity Figures have additionally been terrific throughout those self same 4 races – 105-104-105-109 – with the 109 for the 2024 Brooklyn a profession prime.

Wanting Forward: There in all probability shall be exterior stress for the connections of Subsequent to attempt races just like the Woodward Stakes, Jockey Membership Gold Cup, and Breeders’ Cup Traditional (he’s nominated to the Breeders’ Cup). However so long as Cowans and proprietor Michael Foster are content material to click on off wins in marathon races, these races don’t appear to be a part of the plan for Subsequent.

“We’ll run him 4 or 5 instances a 12 months, regardless of the marathon races are. Simply preserve doing it with him and hope he’s round for some time as a result of he’s enjoyable to be round and he’s enjoyable to observe do that,” Cowans stated.

For that motive, I’m promoting Subsequent as a Breeders’ Cup candidate despite the fact that I completely purchase him as one of many two or three finest horses within the older male division. He seems like a star, however don’t anticipate to see him shine on Nov. 1-2 at Del Mar.


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