We’re lower than a month away from the 2024-25 season, and the Tampa Bay Lightning might be again in motion with a brand new dynamic to the roster. The group added and subtracted at ahead and protection this offseason. Gamers like Steven Stamkos, Jake Guentzel, Mikhail Sergachev, and J.J. Moser are a few of the gamers who’ve both are available in or have gone out.
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With all of the modifications, let’s deal with some essential items heading into the season. We are going to evaluation their efficiency from final season, their position for the upcoming season, and expectations for them. At this time, we are going to cowl one of many Lightning’s breakout performers from the earlier season — Nick Paul, who set a number of career-highs.
Recapping Paul’s 2023-24 Marketing campaign
Paul was a 2022 Commerce Deadline acquisition, the place the Lightning added different important items to the roster as we speak in Brandon Hagel. In spite of everything, that 2021-22 roster was under-appreciated for his or her efforts. Since coming over from the Ottawa Senators, Paul has established himself as the right middle-six, two-way scoring punch for the Lightning. Plus, he took benefit of a golden alternative final season on particular groups.
The 2023-24 season was a profession one for Paul, because the 29-year-old recorded career-bests in objectives, main assists, and factors. Throughout his first 82-game common season, he had 24 objectives, 13 main assists, and 46 factors. His earlier finest totals got here the season prior with Tampa Bay, the place he had 17 objectives and 32 factors in 80 video games. Paul scored a number of objectives on the Lightning’s prime power-play unit, the place he grew to become the web frontman. He notched 9 objectives and a career-high 14 factors on the person benefit.
Whereas Paul wasn’t probably the most intriguing five-on-five offensive participant final season, he remained stellar defensively much like latest season. He suppressed high quality scoring probabilities when on the ice, because the Lightning allowed anticipated objectives at 5 on 5 9 p.c lower than the league common final season (through HockeyViz). Moreover, Paul ranked third amongst Lightning forwards in defensive zone begin share (DZS%), proving head coach Jon Cooper positioned belief within the Canadian ahead. For probably the most half, Paul did this towards the opposing top-six forwards, making him a dependable shutdown man.
Paul even earned a number of video games on the highest line alongside Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Level, the place he performed strong. Nonetheless, as time handed, Paul struggled with the fast tempo of opponents’ prime traces. Whereas he can defend towards forwards of this caliber, that’s the place all his power was devoted, inflicting him to lack offensive possession and generate scoring probabilities. Paul is finest suited to a middle-six middle position, not a top-line winger place. With that stated, let’s discuss his position for the 2024-25 season.
Paul’s Function for the 2024-25 Season
The Lightning bench boss realized extra about Paul in his second season with the group. He found Paul was finest suited to a third-line, two-way middle position and might be used on particular groups if wanted. With the addition of Cam Atkinson, Paul seemingly gained’t see any top-six minutes for the upcoming season. Nonetheless, he’ll drive the offense on the third line.
DailyFaceoff has Paul centering Michael Eyssimont and Conor Sheary to open the 2024-25 season. Regardless of a down marketing campaign from Sheary final season, the Lightning hope he can rejuvenate his profession now that he’s wholesome. On his different wing, Eyssimont can also be coming off a career-best season, so the Lightning hope to proceed his progress as an all-around offensive participant. Finally, this line has a very good punch of expertise and tenacity. Furthermore, they are often harmful on the forecheck with historic puck-pressure gamers like Paul and Sheary.
Expectations for Paul’s 2024-25 Season
Paul’s numbers might look barely completely different this season as a result of he’s seemingly off the primary power-play unit. The plan is for 26-year-old star Brandon Hagel to leap on the primary unit, seemingly rather than Stamkos on the left circle. That leaves Guentzel, who has terrific hand-eye coordination and pure scoring capability, because the net-front man rather than Paul. The opposite three positions of the ability play will stay the identical.
A stat line of round 15 objectives and 35-40 factors is an affordable projection for Paul with out power-play minutes. Nonetheless, we might simply see him again within the 20-goal and 45-point tier with some power-play time. Paul is a dependable, two-way middle for the Lightning who might be right here for a very long time transferring ahead.
