UFC 304 takes place this weekend again throughout the pond because the world’s main MMA promotion returns to Manchester, England for the primary time since 2016. In the primary occasion, welterweight champion Leon Edwards places his belt on the road in opposition to former for Belal Muhammad, whereas the co-main occasion options one other rematch, this time between interim heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall and Curtis Blaydes. On high of that, there are a plethora of different high quality matchups, so let’s get to the breakdowns.

As all the time, all odds are courtesy of our buddies at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Straight Bets

Bobby Inexperienced (-120)

Although his title is now formally King Inexperienced, he’s nonetheless “Bobby Inexperienced” on DraftKings so we’ll go together with that for the sake of readability.

Right here’s the factor: Paddy Pimblett will not be a nasty fighter, however he’s not fairly a very good fighter both. Pimblett’s putting and cardio are each works in progress however he’s gotten away with that by being a very good grappler with a very good chin, and never combating the perfect guys. By these metrics, Inexperienced is a large leap for Pimblett.

Inexperienced is a strong wrestler, superb defensive grappler, and a a lot better striker than Pimblett. Prior to now 4 years, the one occasions Inexperienced has misplaced has been to top-shelf competitors who both knocked him out or have been Islam Makhachev. Pimblett will not be prone to knock out Inexperienced and I doubt he’ll be capable of persistently get takedowns and maintain place, so King Inexperienced ought to have a very good evening in England.

Gregory Rodrigues (+114)

Rodrigues takes on Christian Leroy Duncan in a major card middleweight matchup that guarantees to be a banger. “Robocop” is assured motion each trip and “CLD” has been equally as enjoyable, however there’s one small situation: Rodrigues doesn’t have to brawl if he doesn’t wish to. Robocop can be an completed jiu-jitsu participant, and whereas he usually is blissful to slug it out on the ft, Rodrigues has additionally been prepared to point out off his floor expertise when crucial. It’s crucial on Saturday evening and I believe he’ll just do that.

Picture by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC through Getty Photographs

Prop Bets

Leon Edwards To Win by Determination (+100)

There’s a full breakdown of this matchup over on SBNation.com, however the bullet factors are this: Edwards is greater, youthful, quicker, and higher in nearly each aspect of MMA. Don’t get me incorrect, Muhammad is an excellent fighter, however his explicit model of pressure-wrestle/boxing is poorly suited in opposition to Edwards, who excels at slowing fights down and stopping wrestling from even going down.

On the ft, Edwards has extra pace and energy, and a extra numerous set of instruments, and that’s the place the majority of this struggle might be contested. That being mentioned, Edwards will not be a lot of a finisher (12 of 16 UFC bouts have gone to choice, not together with the no contest) and Muhammad has solely ever been completed as soon as. Count on a basic Edwards choice win.

Fast Similar Recreation Parlay – Tom Aspinall To Win by KO/TKO/DQ + Underneath 4.5 Rounds (-150)

I’ve by no means used the DraftKings Similar Recreation Parlay possibility however figured now’s nearly as good a time as any, as a result of although I believe Curtis Blaydes is being a bit underrated writ giant, I do finally suppose Aspinall is a generational sort of fighter.

For years Blaydes was the man I assumed would put issues all collectively and ascend to championship stage standing, and whereas he has steadily improved, the reality is his chin is simply too giant of a legal responsibility to beat at heavyweight. Don’t get me incorrect, Blaydes isn’t made from paper mache, however he simply doesn’t have the type of iron-clad chin you want at heavyweight to take the belt.

I think Blaydes could have some success on this struggle as he’s superb, however Aspinall is simply too quick and hits exhausting sufficient to place Blaydes in deep trouble.

Curtis Blaydes Over 0.5 Takedowns (+110)

All of the above being mentioned, I do suppose Blaydes offers a greater account of himself than most count on. To whit, that is Curtis Blaydes we’re speaking about and the over/beneath on takedowns is 0.5? Come on, man!

Blaydes is BY FAR the UFC heavyweight chief in takedowns (62) and has a 53.5 p.c success price on takedowns! He’s principally taken down each single opponent he has tried to take action in opposition to, and whereas Aspinall is a terrific athlete, I consider Blaydes can get at the least one on him.

Picture by Matt Davies/PxImages/Icon Sportswire through Getty Photographs

Parlay of the Week

Arnold Allen (-218)

Right here’s an inventory of Allen’s losses up to now decade: A aggressive struggle with Max Holloway, and a razor skinny struggle with undefeated Movsar Evloev. That’s it.

Giga Chikadze had a second just a few years again, however he was by no means in a position to capitalize on it and now Allen ought to finish it completely. Allen’s well-roundedness and struggle I.Q. ought to serve him properly to remove Chikadze’s finest weapons and break the Brit’s present dropping streak.

Molly McCann (-345)

Ought to anybody be betting McCann at this worth? Most likely not, even when Bruna Brasil isn’t precisely a world-beater. However the Manchester crowd goes to go bonkers for McCann when she walks out and that is extra concerning the vibes of supporting two of England’s favourite youngsters on Saturday.

Parlay these two bets collectively for -114 odds.

Wrap Up

Horrible week final weekend. That’ll educate me to go chasing after unhealthy playing cards. We don’t have that drawback this Saturday although, as UFC 304 is great from high to backside (largely). Let’s hope we money some tickets.

Till subsequent week, benefit from the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!

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