UFC 305 goes down this weekend (Sat., Aug. 17, 2024) from inside RAC Enviornment in Perth, Australia. The pay-per-view (PPV) important occasion has Dricus Du Plessis making an attempt to defend his Middleweight title for the primary time. His opposition would be the returning Israel Adesanya, who has held that belt over two reigns and efficiently defended it on 5 events. The co-main for this one is Steve Erceg, who’s coming off an unsuccessful UFC Flyweight title shot in Brazil. In his hometown he’ll tackle Kai Kara-France.

Rounding out the primary card we’ve got Mateusz Gamrot vs. Dan Hooker at Light-weight/All-Violence, Tai Tuivasa vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik at Heavyweight and Li Jingliang vs. Carlos Prates at Welterweight.

The late “Prelims” headliner is Junior Tafa vs. Valter Walker. The early “Prelims” characteristic Tom Nolan towards Alex Reyes.

As all the time, there’s heaps to wager on this card (see it right here), and we’ve obtained odds for all of the fights beneath:

UFC 305 Primary Card Cash Line Odds

Dricus Du Plessis (+105) vs. Israel Adesanya (-125)

Will probably be 343 days between Israel Adesanya’s beautiful loss to Sean Strickland in Toronto and his scheduled assembly with Dricus Du Plessis in Perth. Towards Strickland he appeared off. It occurred round a time when he was having private points (therefore the ‘He isn’t your financial institution’ T-shirt) and authorized points (attributable to a drink driving arrest). After the loss to Strickland, Adesanya mentioned he wanted a while away from the game. Personally, I don’t suppose lower than a yr is adequate (particularly once you issue loads of the time spent doing promotion and a combat camp) and I fear he is likely to be coming again too early.

Adesanya turned 35 final month. That is likely to be one of many causes’ Adesanya’s hiatus turned a ‘brief break’. If he’d taken a reliable break from the game and returned in a yr or two there’s a great probability he wouldn’t be aggressive towards the rising crop of high UFC Middleweights.

The strain to get again within the cage now, earlier than the window actually closes on his athletic prime, coupled with the conditions round his earlier losses, imply — for me — the vibes are off for Adesanya right here.

If he had confronted Du Plessis three years in the past I’ve no doubts that he would have been in a position to snipe him from vary and put him down inside three rounds. Nevertheless, I’m not that assured of that taking place this time round, particularly given the truth that the 30-year-old Du Plessis continues to be trending barely upwards in his profession.

In his prime Adesanya feasted on fighters like Du Plessis; guys who come forwards with reckless abandonment (see his wins over Derek Brunson [here], Paulo Costa [here] and Robert Whittaker [here]).

We all know Du Plessis goes to cost Adesanya. What’s going to decide the combat is whether or not Adesanya continues to be as composed and scientific as he was in his championship years. In that case, then Du Plessis goes to stroll into one thing and get put to sleep. If Adesanya isn’t sharp, mentally and/or bodily, then Du Plessis will be capable of hit him and take him down earlier than these counters can land.

I feel if Du Plessis is ready to put strain on Adesanya, and never get checked with a tough jab or kick on the best way in, he might make this combat very powerful for The Final StyleBender.

Du Plessis leads the Middleweight division with 6.49 important strikes landed per minute. The counter-striker Adesanya lands solely 3.93. Adesanya’s strikes have traditionally been extra significant, although (eliciting a division main variety of knockdowns).

Adesanya’s putting protection doesn’t look superb on paper. 56% places him barely within the high ten of his division. Nevertheless, once you take a look at his latest fights he’s been spectacular in permitting only a few strikes from identified quantity strikers.

Strickland landed 137 in 5 rounds in his win over Adesanya. Strickland landed 173 towards Du Plessis and 182 towards Costa.

Jared Cannonier landed simply 90 in his 5 rounds loss to Adesanya. Cannonier landed 141 on Strickland and 241 on Cannonier.

Whittaker landed simply 59 over 5 rounds of their rematch. He landed 74 and 95 strikes in three spherical fights with Marvin Vettori and Costa.

The Adesanya we’re most accustomed to seeing has a great probability of avoiding loads of Du Plessis’ offense. However I’m torn on whether or not we see that Adesanya right here (or ever once more).

One other factor to contemplate is that Adesanya’s capacity to not take loads of strikes/punishment over his profession has been helped by his nice takedown protection (77%). On this combat, although, I feel Du Plessis will reach taking him down. Du Plessis was in a position to take Strickland down six instances (on eleven makes an attempt) to win the title. Strickland’s takedown protection can be 77%. Du Plessis was additionally in a position to take down Whittaker and Brunson, too, each of whom have takedown defenses of over 80%.

In conclusion, I’d like to see Adesanya rewind the clock and declare again his title with a scientific KO win over the anti-popular Du Plessis. Nevertheless, I simply don’t see it taking place. I fear that Adesanya’s mindset may not be repaired but and, even whether it is, his declining athleticism and velocity ought to enable Du Plessis to get near him. I predict Du Plessis can land near 100 strikes and half a dozen takedowns on this combat. I feel that’s a recipe for choice win or a late TKO.

Decide: Dricus Du Plessis by way of TKO, spherical 4.

Picture by Leandro Bernardes/PxImages/Icon Sportswire by way of Getty Pictures

Kai Kara-France (+150) vs. Steve Erceg (-180)

The final time we noticed Steve Erceg is was when he threw away his UFC Flyweight title shot at UFC 301 in Rio de Janeiro. Erceg was lighting Alexandre Pantoja up on the ft within the first few rounds of their combat. Nevertheless, within the halfway level of the competition he determined to attempt mixing issues up. He went away from what was working for him and engaged Pantoja in prolonged clinch and grappling battles that allowed the Brazilian again into the combat and in the end resulted in him shedding a choice. Erceg was close to tears after the bout, I feel as a result of he should have realized he was successful this factor and would have been taking a belt dwelling to Perth if he had simply stored the combat standing.

He’s again in Perth now, albeit with out a belt. And he has Kai Kara-France as his opponent. The oddsmakers have him as the favourite and that’s a great place to take if Erceg has realized from his mistake. Outdoors of that combat Erceg has appeared like a heady particular person so I feel there’s a good probability we see him pile on the strain subsequent time he has an opponent in bother.

Kara-France has been out of motion for over a yr. His final combat was a break up choice loss to Amir Albazi within the UFC APEX. That combat got here a yr after his earlier bout, a TKO loss to Brandon Moreno for the interim Flyweight title (see that right here). The yr lengthy break between the Moreno and Albazi combat was attributable to a knee harm. The yr lengthy break between the Albazi combat and now was attributable to a concussion, which took him out of a deliberate combat with Manel Kape final September.

The scorecards within the Albazi combat have been a lot criticized, with the overwhelming majority of media scores ruling in favor of Kara-France (per MMA Selections). Regardless that I scored the combat for Kara-France, I don’t suppose this was a theft. It was only a very shut combat with a variety of rounds that might go both method.

I like Erceg to win this combat. I feel he erased loads of questions over his power of schedule by taking Pantoja to 5 rounds and totally drubbing him on the ft. He’s preventing somebody extra tried and examined than him, once more, however I feel I’m optimistic that Erceg can be improved after his expertise of preventing for the title.

I’m involved about Kara-France’s lengthy lay-off and I don’t suppose he can out-wrestler Erceg the best way Pantoja did ought to he really feel he’s coming off second greatest within the putting exchanges.

Prediction: Steve Erceg by way of choice.

Picture by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Pictures

Mateusz Gamrot (-340) vs. Dan Hooker (+260)

Dan Hooker is a giant underdog towards Mateusz Gamrot right here in Australia. The Kiwi is coming off an exhilarating forwards and backwards combat with Jalin Turner final July. That was over a yr in the past, although. He was attributable to combat King Inexperienced in December however needed to pull out of that attributable to an arm harm.

Hooker’s win over Turner adopted his physique kick end over Claudio Puelles (see that right here). These wins got here after fast losses to Arnold Allen (see it right here) and future champion Islam Makhachev (see that right here).

He’s been given a tricky opponent right here within the type of Mateusz Gamrot. Every time he’s fought somebody of an analogous stature Hooker’s faltered (see his losses to Dustin Poirier and Michael Chandler), so I can definitely see why the bookies suppose Gamrot will come out on high down underneath.

Gamrot has received three straight; towards a fairly washed Rafael dos Anjos, Rafael Fiziev (attributable to harm) and Jalin Turner (a break up choice). These wins got here after he was shut out by Beneil Dariush. Gamrot’s greatest win within the promotion, on paper, is his unanimous choice over Arman Tsarukyan. Nevertheless, I and plenty of different onlookers suppose Tsarukyan received that combat.

Gamrot vs. Hooker is a fairly even combat if it simply occurs on the ft. Each are nice strikers. Gamrot’s endurance and effectivity and Hooker’s attain and aggressiveness make the stand-up battle a wash for me. I feel each will be capable of land on the opposite, however I’ve doubts that both will be capable of put the opposite one away standing.

I feel Gamrot’s takedowns would be the decider on this bout, one thing he used to dominate Dos Anjos final trip. Hooker has nice takedown protection on paper at 80% (Gamrot’s is 90%, by the best way). However he’s not confronted loads of guys in his profession who make the takedown a focus of their assault. He’s principally fought guys who’re as pleased as he’s to face and bang. The one opponents he’s fought within the UFC with a takedowns per 15 minute common increased than 2.00 are Puelles, Makhachev, Chandler, Gilbert Burns and Hatsu Hioki.

He evaded eight of eight takedowns from Puelles, however these weren’t precisely stellar takedown makes an attempt — they have been principally Puelles rolling for leg locks or him flopping forwards from too far-off. He was taken down as soon as (on one try) by Makhachev and submitted. Chandler didn’t try any takedowns of their combat. Burns tried one takedown and did not convert. Hioki went 2 for five (again in 2015). So I don’t suppose that 80% takedown protection score is way to put in writing dwelling about (particularly in case you take away his success towards a extremely poor trying Puelles).

Gamrot is a keen, and efficient, takedown artist and that could possibly be an actual nightmare for Hooker on this match-up.

Prediction: Mateusz Gamrot by way of unanimous choice.

Picture by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Pictures

Tai Tuivasa (+180) vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik (-220)

Tai Tuivasa is in a gap proper now. He’s misplaced his final 4, all by stoppage. Two of them have been by way of TKO. Now, admittedly, that’s come towards a assassin’s row of Ciryl Gane (see that TKO right here), Sergei Pavlovich (see that TKO right here) and Alexander Volkov.

The UFC haven’t completed him any favors right here, although. In his dwelling nation he’s been given one other heavy hitter who will most likely be capable of discover and take a look at his chin on Saturday night time.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik outlasted Shamil Gaziev final trip. Previous to that he was choked out by Jailton Almeida (see that right here). That got here after he scored his seventh TKO win in UFC, with a 23 second victory over Chris Daukaus (see that right here).

Tuivasa has develop into a fighter who will simply stand in entrance of you and take a look at to see in case you’re highly effective sufficient to knock him out. He’s by no means tried a takedown in UFC and his putting protection is a porous 43%. He absorbs 5.05 important strikes a minute, which is dreadful and harmful, particularly at Heavyweight.

Rozenstruik has a 3 inch attain benefit on Tuivasa and it’ll simply be a matter of time earlier than Bigi Boy rings Bam Bam’s bell.

Prediction: Jairzinho Rozenstruik by way of KO, spherical 1.

Picture by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Pictures

Li Jingliang (+250) vs. Carlos Prates (-320)

Veteran Muay Thai fighter Carlos Prates continued to look slick within the Octagon when he took out Charles Radkte with a hellacious knee to the physique a number of months in the past (watch it right here).

This combat can be taking place on Prates’ thirty first birthday. He’s not that lengthy within the tooth, however he has had loads of fights throughout that point and that’s not together with the various bouts he’s racked up in Muay Thai reveals that don’t seem on Tapology. In professional MMA he has two fights fewer than Li Jingliang, who’s 5 years older than him.

Li’s profession has already hit its ceiling. His loss to final gate-keeper Neil Magny in 2020 confirmed he was by no means prone to break into the highest 5 at Welterweight. Since then he beat Santiago Ponznibbio by way of KO (see it right here), was smeshed by Khamzat Chimaev (see that right here) and TKO’d Muslim Salikhov (see it right here). In his final bout he misplaced a break up choice to Daniel Rodriguez.

Prates is an honest favorite right here and that’s due to his youth and his large seven inch attain benefit.

Prates ought to be capable of chew the Leech up in putting exchanges, patiently jabbing away at him from vary and touchdown counters when Li tries to shut distance. Li has by no means been stopped by strikes, so it could be a giant feather in his cap if Prates might pull that off. His strikes are nasty and nicely positioned, so I feel he has an opportunity to do this. If not, although, I nonetheless see him hitting and hurting Li sufficient that he’s in a position to cruise to a choice.

Prediction: Carlos Prates by way of unanimous choice

UFC 305 ‘Late Prelims’ Underneath Card Odds

Picture by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Pictures

Junior Tafa (-120) vs. Valter Walker (Evens)

A battle of low output Heavyweights. Not precisely the combat to get people’ excited and persuade them to purchase the PPV.

Junior Tafa was beat up by Marcos Rogerio de Lima final trip (after coming in on brief discover to exchange his brother). Earlier than that he KO’d Parker Porter (see that right here). He misplaced his UFC debut to Mohammed Usman by way of unanimous choice.

Valter Walker misplaced his UFC debut to Lukasz Brzeski in April. He was undefeated previous to that. Although, the most important identify on his document is Mike Perry’s BFF Alex Nicholson.

Neither of those guys are UFC degree (as if meaning something these days). Walker is a really huge man. He couldn’t make that rely towards Brzeski, although. He was in a position to get takedowns, however his putting was so dreadful that Brzeski’s work on the ft was in a position to cancel out all of the management time he obtained on the bottom.

Tafa ought to be capable of replicate what Brzeski did for a lacklustre choice win.

Prediction: Junior Tafa by way of choice.

Picture by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Pictures

Josh Culibao (-150) vs. Ricardo Ramos (+125)

It is a fairly evenly matched combat. Each guys have had an analogous up and down profession in UFC, to this point, with losses to powerful opponents. Culibao misplaced a break up choice to Danny Silva final trip and misplaced to latest headliner Lerone Murphy, by way of unanimous choice, earlier than that. Ricardo Ramos is coming off back-to-back guillotine choke losses to Julian Erosa and Charles Jourdain. Culibao has the slight benefit on the ft, however Ramos poses extra of a menace within the grappling division (3.02 takedowns per quarter-hour and 60% accuracy). Culibao has respectable, however not stellar, takedown protection (67%).

I like Ramos on this combat attributable to his extra diversified assault. Culibao will hope this combat is all putting, however I’m not satisfied he can drive that to occur.

Prediction: Ricardo Ramos by way of choice.

Picture by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Pictures

Casey O’Neill (+145) vs. Luana Santos (-175)

Luana Santos simply submit Mariya Agapova a month in the past, with little or no bother. That made her 3-0 in UFC, following wins over Stephanie Egger and Juliana Miller (by way of TKO). That has earned her a step-up in competitors and a combat with Casey O’Neill.

After a great begin to her UFC profession, which included wins over Antonina Shevchenko and Roxanne Modafferi, O’Neill has misplaced to Jennifer Maia and Ariane Lipski Da Silva.

O’Neill is a quantity distance striker who lands 8.41 important strikes per minute. That leads all energetic UFC fighters. That stat could be way more spectacular if she wasn’t absorbing 6.3 important strikes a minute herself.

Santos lands 5.33 sig. strikes per minute and absorbs 3.21. She additionally scores two takedowns per quarter-hour and makes an attempt two submissions per quarter-hour. She’s the extra well-rounded fighter right here and her strikes have extra snap and menace to them than O’Neill’s. She’s coming in on brief discover (changing Tereza Bleda), however I feel she’s one to look at at Flyweight and I feel she’ll be capable of cling with O’Neill on the ft and get her in bother on the bottom.

Prediction: Luana Santos by way of submission, spherical 2.

Picture by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC

Jack Jenkins (-850) vs. Herbert Burns (+500)

Herbert Burns is one in every of our greatest underdogs on the cardboard. He’s not appeared nice in UFC. Julio Arce TKO’d him in March (see that right here). That was after a two yr lay-off. Earlier than the lay-off he was exhausted by Invoice Algeo (see that right here) and crucified by Daniel Pineda (test that out right here). He’s 36 now and I doubt UFC will hold him round after this combat, win or lose. Even when he’s doing them a strong by flying out to Australia on brief discover to fill in for Gavin Tucker.

Jack Jenkins got here off the Contender Sequence in 2022. The Australian beat Don Shainis and Jamall Emmers earlier than shedding to Chepe Marsical in his final combat (attributable to an harm). He’s one other fighter who hasn’t fought for near a yr.

Burns has some dimension on Jenkins, however he’s additionally 36, not very energetic, and coming off a nasty loss.

Prediction: Jack Jenkins by way of TKO, spherical 2.

UFC 305 ‘Early Prelims’ Underneath Card Odds

Picture by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Pictures

Tom Nolan (-1150) vs. Alex Reyes (+650)

Tom Nolan is a large favourite on this combat. He final fought in Could, beating Victor Martinez as a -500 favourite. That win obtained him to 1-1 in UFC, having been TKO’d by Nikolas Motta in his debut (see that right here).

Nolan was dropped within the Martinez combat earlier than he was in a position to land the knee that may successfully finish Martinez’s night time. It was a great end for Nolan, however the efficiency was a bit of underwhelming contemplating that Martinez had fought simply twice prior to now 5 years.

Alex Reyes is coming off two stoppage losses. Final September he was TKO’d by Charlie Campbell (see it right here) and earlier than that he was knocked out by a Mike Perry knee (see that right here). These fights (his solely within the UFC) have been six years aside.

Nolan is a really huge Light-weight, however he received’t have a attain benefit over Reyes. He’s a really uncooked, and considerably sloppy, expertise at this level of his profession. He’s been given one other opponent like Martinez although, somebody older, slower and who has barely been energetic over the previous half decade. He’ll possible win, however this combat received’t inform us a lot about him if he does.

Prediction: Tom Nolan by way of KO, spherical 1.

Picture by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Pictures

Tune Kenan (-195) vs. Ricky Glenn (+165)

One other combat with older guys who’re but to compete on this calendar yr. Enjoyable.

Tune Kenan and Ricky Glenn have a mixed age of 70 and a mixed UFC document of 9-9. Tremendous enjoyable.

Tune is coming off a bruising loss to Kevin Jousset in December. Glenn was viciously TKO’d by Drew Dober in October (see it right here). Previous to that he was KO’d by Christos Giagos.

This combat is occurring at Welterweight. Glenn, determined to shake-up his combat profession, is a former Featherweight.

Each these guys can be right down to scrap, however neither have a lot of a chin to see them via such scraps. Somebody goes down and I’ll belief the pure Welterweight to be the hammer and never the nail right here.

Prediction: Tune Kenan by way of TKO, spherical 2.

Picture by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Pictures

Stewart Nicoll (-240) vs. Jesus Aguilar (+195)

Stewart Nicoll is making his promotional debut at UFC 305. He’s 8-0 after time spent completely on the Aussie circuit. He’s obtained loads of potential, although. Jesus Aguilar is 2-1 in UFC. He was submitted in his UFC debut towards Tatsuro Taira (no disgrace in that). After that he KO’d Shannon Ross in 17 seconds (see it right here). He additionally has a win over Edgar Chairez outdoors of the UFC.

The bookies have purchased the hype on Nicoll. I haven’t seen sufficient of him to clap again on that, so I’ll aspect with Vegas.

Prediction: Stewart Nicoll by way of choice.

Picture by Carmen Mandato/Zuffa LLC

UFC 305 Prop Bets And Parlays

Right here’s a few issues that look attention-grabbing (on DraftKings) for this Saturday’s UFC 305 card …

Two decide parlay: Jairzinho Rozenstruik to beat Tai Tuivasa and Mateusz Gamrot to defeat Dan Hooker (-114)

I feel it’s going to be a foul night time for Oceania with plenty of Aussies and Kiwis accumulating Ls. Two of these dwelling nation fighters with the worst match-ups are Tai Tuivasa and Dan Hooker. Tuivasa has been used for goal practise currently and I don’t suppose Rozenstruik will miss his possibilities to place him away. Dan Hooker and Mateusz Gamrot might placed on a enjoyable brawl, however I feel Gamrot goes to have the ability to take the Hangman down (on repeat) for a convincing win.

Mateusz Gamrot takedowns landed – Over 4.5 (+100)

I feel this complete is de facto low for this combat. I feel it’s been set at 4.5 attributable to Dan Hooker’s takedown protection (80%). Nevertheless, as I defined above, I don’t suppose that’s an correct reflection on his capacity to cease Gamrot taking him down on this combat. Towards Rafael dos Anjos in his final combat, Gamrot scored 11 takedowns (which says extra about RDA than him, sadly). Earlier than that he was 1 of 6 towards Fiziev over one and a half rounds (Fiziev has a legit takedown protection of 89%, although). In earlier bouts he took Jailin Turner (74% takedown protection) down 4 instances, Beneil Dariush (80% takedown protection) down 4 instances and Arman Tsarukyan (75% takedown protection) down six instances.

Li Jingliang vs. Carlos Prates to go to a choice (+150)

I feel it is a powerful combat for each males. Li is the perfect MMA fighter Prates has ever confronted, even with the truth that Li has declined significantly from his peak years. Li additionally has a heck of a chin and he’s by no means been stopped. I feel Prates will win this combat, however I feel Li can be powerful sufficient to resist the strikes he’ll get thrown at him (even ones which have been ok to place down the likes of Charles Radkte and Trevin Giles). Li has scored his justifiable share of stoppages, however I don’t suppose he’ll cease Prates on Saturday night time.

Prates is hard as hell, too. He has one TKO loss on his document. I’ve watched it. It was a bout with Mikhail Romanchuk in China in 2017. It appeared kinda mounted to me, with Prates preventing underneath the identify Carlos Vega. He didn’t throw a punch your complete combat and simply wrapped up Romanchuk and allowed him to wing punches at his shoulders till he known as the ref over and advised him to cease the combat. In any case, I digress. I feel this combat goes to the judges’ scorecards.

Picture by: Joe Sohm/Visions of America/Common Pictures Group by way of Getty Pictures

UFC 305 Ballot Time

Which of the sooner props and parlays do you just like the look of essentially the most?

What else are you liking for this occasion? Hit us up within the feedback beneath.

LIVE! Watch UFC 305 PPV On ESPN+ Right here!

’BAD BLOOD BOILS OVER! Final Preventing Championship (UFC) returns to RAC Enviornment in Perth, western Australia, on Sat., Aug. 17, 2024, with a fully unimaginable pay-per-view (PPV) important occasion between Middleweight champion, Dricus Du Plessis, taking over African rival — and former 185-pound roost-ruler — Israel Adesanya. In UFC 305’s co-headliner, top-ranked Flyweight contender, Kai Kara-France (No. 4), locks horns with former 125-pound title contender, Steve Erceg (No. 7), whereas Mateusz Gamrot meets Dan Hooker in a enjoyable Light-weight scrap one combat prior. UFC 305’s PPV important card (see it right here) will even characteristic Tai Tuivasa vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Jingliang Li vs. Carlos Prates and a lot extra. It’s must-watch motion from “Down Underneath!” UFC 305 begin time scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET (Prelims) and 10 p.m. ET (PPV).

Don’t miss a single second of EPIC face-punching motion!

Do not forget that MMAmania.com will ship LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow protection of your complete UFC 305 combat card, beginning with the “Prelims” play-by-play proper right here and adopted by the “Primary Card” play-by-play proper right here. The motion begins on ESPN+ with the “Early Prelims” scheduled to start at 6:30 p.m. ET. These are adopted by the “Late Prelims” at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+ earlier than the primary card begin time at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV).

To take a look at the newest and biggest UFC 305: “Du Plessis vs. Adesanya” information and notes make sure to hit up our complete occasion archive proper right here.