Can Ilia Topuria retain his title, how can Max Holloway grow to be the brand new champion once more, and what are we most intrigued by on this matchup? Let’s dive in.
Photograph by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC through Getty Photographs
Paths to Victory for Ilia Topuria at UFC 308
Max Holloway is a cheater.
MMA is meant to be an honorable fight sport, the place two males step right into a cage to search out out who’s the higher, extra expert fighter. That is why fighters get so bent off form about Efficiency Enhancing Medication as a result of when one fighter takes them and the opposite doesn’t, it constitutes an unfair benefit. Properly, Max Holloway additionally has an unfair benefit in each struggle he’s in: he’s not possible to harm.
Holloway’s chin is made from some alloy of adamantium and mithril. By 29 UFC bouts and almost eight hours of octagon time, Holloway has by no means formally been knocked down (I say formally as a result of Justin Gaethje one hundred pc did drop him, and the stat keepers are idiots) a lot much less out. He’s fought a few of the heaviest hitters throughout two weight courses and so they can’t dent him. That’s astonishing, to place it mildly. It’s additionally dishonest as a result of when you can’t be killed, then what likelihood does your opponent have?!
Properly, that likelihood is in out-working Holloway tactically over 25 minutes, as Alexander Volkanovski did 3 times. That’s the duty forward for Topuria in his first title protection.
In broad phrases, over their first two fights, Volkanovski was in a position to edge out Holloway with feints, footwork, a sturdy jab, and a bevy of low kicks, each inside and outdoors. Then of their third encounters, Volkanovski merely whipped his ass with those self same instruments, plus a renewed willingness to throw together, with energy. And happily for Topuria, he can do all of these issues.
Topuria doesn’t typically throw a number of leg kicks, however I anticipate that to vary for this struggle. The champion is definitely able to throwing them, and so they’re an enormous weapon each to attain and to stifle Holloway’s motion as Topuria tries to again him to the fence. Extra importantly although, I feel the very best factor Topuria can do on this struggle is decide to physique work early and sometimes.
Holloway’s recreation is constructed off of his jab and so to beat him, that must be precedence one. Volkanovski solved that with low kicks and whereas Topuria ought to do these as properly, he additionally has the chance to vary his degree beneath the jab and hit to the physique together with his personal jab or proper hand. It’s a superb weapon to each transfer Holloway again, sq. him up, and create openings for going up excessive together. That’s the kind of offense that may actually get to Holloway and put him behind the eight ball early.
As talked about, Holloway’s chin is nigh uncrackable, and whereas that doesn’t imply Topuria ought to abandon attacking it fully, it’s bold to assume all he must do to beat Holloway is get him alongside the fence and decrease the growth. As a substitute, Topuria must be ready for a drawn-out contest the place he merely out-scoring Holloway by attacking all ranges accessible.
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Photograph by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC through Getty Photographs
Paths to victory for Max Holloway at UFC 308
For years, Max Holloway has claimed to have the very best boxing within the UFC. Properly, that’s about to be put to the take a look at as soon as once more.
Although he’s solely 27 years previous, Ilia Topuria already has a few of the greatest boxing in MMA. He has wonderful strain footwork, cuts angles, throws together, works all ranges of the physique and head, and packs ludicrous energy. It’s a recreation designed to stroll down opponents, seize the initiative, and degree them with effectivity. However it’s not with out its weaknesses.
At this level the guide is out on kicking Topuria on the open facet. Volkanovski, Josh Emmett, and even Jai Herbert all made some extent of popping left kicks into the physique and as much as the top. Topuria employs a excessive and tight boxing guard, and needs to stroll opponents down and these kicks make that tougher by setting an extended vary, exterior of his punching menace, or by merely conserving his guard locked in to defend.
In an identical vein, Holloway also needs to look to kick the legs. Although Topuria in the end clubbed him with a mixture, Volkanovski had respectable success in opposition to Topuria early by transferring round on angles and chopping the lead leg. Given his heavy boxing stance and the frequency with which Topuria makes use of feints and degree adjustments, it’s a great scoring instrument for Holloway.
Lastly, and this is able to be a comparatively new one for Holloway, could be for Max to search for clinches. Holloway does stable work when he’s compelled into the clinch however by no means seeks it out, and so in opposition to Topuria that may very well be a great wrinkle, particularly as Topuria himself isn’t a targeted clinch fighter. Volkanovski landed good knees within the clinch and Holloway might have related success.
One Huge Factor
The end result of most excessive degree fights relies on dozens of various issues, however frankly, it’s rather a lot to record all of these out. As a substitute, let’s simplify issues by figuring out the One Huge Factor that may decide Saturday’s winner.
Who seizes the initiative?
Each Topuria and Holloway desire to struggle on the entrance foot, taking the initiative and main the dance. For Topuria, it’s imposing strain and physicality to maneuver opponents again to the fence, lower off their escape routes, and degree them. For Holloway, it’s merely to power opponents to the again foot the place he has extra freedom to work in lengthy mixtures in opposition to retreating forces. However in each instances, each males need to be main the dance and whoever wins this battle of wills ought to win the struggle.
One Small Factor
Now we all know the one most necessary issue of Saturday’s predominant occasion, however what about one thing else fully that just about definitely received’t occur but when it does might change all the things.
Stand your floor.
Could fighters have signature strikes however Holloway has maybe the best one in MMA historical past: pointing to the bottom and beckoning a brawl within the final 10 seconds of a struggle. Earlier this 12 months it result in one of many best knockouts of all-time, and because of this, Topuria even challenged Holloway to begin their struggle off like that. Holloway already vetoed this concept, however what if he doesn’t? Actually, this is perhaps an excellent technique for Holloway as his unbreakable chin provides him a determined benefit in any wild firefight like that.
Prediction
I worry this can be a tough struggle for Max Holloway. “Blessed” has had a exceptional profession and his win over Justin Gaethje at UFC 300 will reside perpetually, however upon nearer inspection that victory has a few of the trappings of an all-time nice fighter proving his bonafides regardless of declining. In the meantime, Topuria shouldn’t be but in his greatest or remaining type and was in a position to Volkanovski — a person who beat Holloway 3 times — with relative ease. And on condition that Holloway isn’t almost nearly as good on the again foot as Volkanovski is, the most probably state of affairs to imply appears to be Topuria bullying Holloway across the cage for 25 minutes.
Holloway is an distinctive fighter and if he can defy the percentages on Saturday, it will likely be an all-time nice efficiency, however I feel we’re dwelling within the Topuria period now.
Ilia Topuria def. Max Holloway through unanimous resolution (49-46, 49-46, 49-46).