Alexandre Pantoja won’t be the UFC’s No. 1 alternative for a important occasion, however that’s the spot he finds himself in once more.

For the second time in 2024, the reigning flyweight champion has been known as upon to shut out a pay-per-view, and once more, it’s towards an unlikely challenger. This Saturday’s UFC 310 headliner sees Pantoja tackle harmful newcomer Kai Asakura, a star from Japan’s RIZIN promotion.

Pantoja beat Steve Erceg in the primary occasion of UFC 301 this previous Could, a bout that was seemingly put collectively simply so the promotion may have a Brazilian atop the Rio de Janeiro card. Whatever the circumstances, Pantoja delivered as he has time and time once more, and he can put himself in place for a fair greater 2025 if he will get previous Asakura.

However what would the subsequent problem be for Pantoja, the No. 4 fighter within the MMA Preventing Pound-for-Pound Rankings? Alexander Ok. Lee, Mike Heck, and Jed Meshew bought collectively to determine what 2025 may maintain for Pantoja, and which different fighters on the UFC 310 lineup can set themselves up for fulfillment within the new 12 months.

1. Alexandre Pantoja fights _____ subsequent if he beats Kai Asakura.

Lee: Pantoja has a troublesome check forward and there are nonetheless a number of items in movement at 125, however when the mud settles, it’s Asu Almabayev who can be standing throughout from him subsequent.

Almabayev is one win away from a sure-fire title shot, one thing I count on him to deal with within the first quarter of 2025. If Pantoja can afford to attend, he ought to, as a result of there’s a contemporary batch of challengers ready for him, with Almabayev on the forefront. With respect to the likes of Tatsuro Taira, Bruno “Bulldog” Silva, and (shockingly) Charles Johnson, I see Almabayev because the cream of the contender crop.

It doesn’t get any simpler for Pantoja and there aren’t any massive names within the division to immediately vault him up the P4P chart, but when he retains stringing collectively title defenses towards a full of life group of flyweight challengers, don’t be shocked if he makes the present Large 3 of Islam Makhachev, Alex Pereira, and Ilia Topuria, a Large 4.

Heck: The winner of the must-be-booked Brandon vs. Brandon trilogy battle for the title shot, and to maintain the identify endlessly.

I child on the latter gimmick, however Brandon Moreno vs. Brandon Royval 3 is the battle to make for the division, in my view, and whoever will get their hand raised ought to get subsequent towards Pantoja ought to he defeat the very enjoyable and harmful Asakura.

Certain, we love contemporary matchups, however Pantoja-Moreno 3 was probably the greatest fights of 2023, and most likely the very best flyweight title battle in UFC historical past. I’d like to see it once more. And if it’s Royval getting one other crack at it, you’ll hear completely no complaints from me.

Meshew: Let’s get spicy! If Pants beats Asakura, his subsequent opponent can be … Muhammad Mokaev!

“Jed, no! That’s inconceivable! Mokaev isn’t even within the UFC anymore! The promotion let him stroll after a boring efficiency and being a nuisance exterior of the cage!”

If there’s one factor we’ve discovered within the battle recreation it’s that Dana White and firm do and say many issues, and none of them are chiseled in stone. Prefer it or not, Mokaev is without doubt one of the best fighters on the planet at flyweight, and he’s nonetheless solely 24 years previous. The UFC isn’t within the enterprise of passing on supremely gifted younger fighters, particularly when they’re open about doing something to battle within the UFC (Mokaev provided to battle without spending a dime, if you happen to’ll keep in mind).

Mokaev has a battle at BRAVE CF later this month and I feel after he wins, the UFC goes to come back calling as soon as once more. They’ll deal with this complete factor like a timeout, instilling an vital lesson onto Mokaev about attempting to battle somebody in actual life however then by no means attempting to battle them if you’re within the cage, and “The Punisher” (a really hilarious identify if you happen to’ve ever seen him battle) can be proper again within the combine.

Photograph by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Pictures

2. The place does Ian Machado Garry rank with an upset win over Shavkat Rakhmonov?

Heck: Contemplating I’ve Shavkat as my No. 1 welterweight at present, Garry must transfer to that spot, or at worst No. 2, but it surely’ll rely on the efficiency, actually.

I’ve had Shavkat within the high spot for fairly a while, and though I feel Belal Muhammad is likely to be the hardest battle within the division for him, I’d choose Rakhmonov comfortably if that battle will get rebooked. Taking a look at a potential Muhammad vs. Garry battle, at this second — until Garry completely drums up Rakhmonov in unbelievable trend — I’d most likely lean with the champ to get it finished primarily based on the talent units of every fighter.

Whereas I feel Garry is extremely gifted, and can probably put on the UFC title some day, I don’t love his possibilities on Saturday.

Meshew: Someplace between No. 1 and No. 3, relying on what it appears to be like like.

I at present have Shavkat as my No. 1 welterweight as a result of he’s 18-0 with all finishes, and he’s overwhelmed loads of nice fighters. Garry can be undefeated however a few of his wins have been rather less definitive, and so if he ekes out a detailed one over Shavkat, the physique of labor gained’t be fairly pretty much as good as Belal Muhammad or Leon Edwards. But when he wins emphatically? Perhaps that’s sufficient to juice him as much as the No. 1 spot.

However even when Garry loses, his ceiling remains to be fairly excessive. I do know persons are out on him as a result of he could be off-putting personally, however the younger man has a ton of expertise, and I consider he’ll battle for a title sooner or later.

Lee: I’ve been prepared to tug the set off on bumping Garry up the rankings for some time, although unusually I’ve him ranked lowest among the many MMA Preventing voting panel. He’s as excessive as No. 5 on our ballots, whereas I’ve him all the best way down at No. 10.

That’s most likely too conservative of an analysis of what the undefeated Irishman has finished as he’s fared effectively towards ranked competitors despite the fact that he didn’t blow the doorways off towards Michael Web page, Geoff Neal, nor Neil Magny. However he’s ably stepped as much as the subsequent degree of competitors, retaining his zero intact and navigating his profession about in addition to you’ll be able to underneath the UFC umbrella. Now, he’s booked a matchup with the closely favored Rakhmonov and, to be frank, till now I hadn’t even thought of the place to put Garry ought to he rating the upset.

I feel that feat makes him No. 3, behind solely the champ Muhammad and former champ Edwards. Beating the division’s boogeyman may benefit consideration for the highest spot, however for me, simply seeing the oft-mocked Garry attain that loft spot can be stunning sufficient.

3. What preliminary bout needs to be on the primary card as an alternative of Bryce Mitchell vs. Kron Gracie?

Lee: Let’s go along with a fighter that was clearly purported to be on the primary card.

Sure, Vicente Luque was the B-side to the regrettable Nick Diaz matchup (please, don’t re-book this once more), however simply because Diaz is not a part of the equation doesn’t imply Luque ought to simply lose his spot. Luque has been one of many UFC’s finest troopers for a decade, taking up the hardest competitors and delivering spotlight after spotlight with out ever rocking the boat. That must be price one thing.

It’s not like his alternative opponent is a no one. Themba Gorimbo’s “I’m buddies with The Rock” is without doubt one of the finest gimmicks going within the UFC, and he’s made a reputation for himself with little assist from the promotion. They need to be pushing him extra, not relegating him to the prelims. Even when he loses, Gorimbo is the type of athlete loads of followers can get behind.

The Gracie identify clearly carries loads of weight, therefore Kron’s placement, however grinders like Luque and Gorimbo are getting the shaft right here.

Heck: Choose a battle out of a hat and also you’ll be capable to make a case. Clearly, there’s a little bit of sarcasm, however most of those prelim fights would have a compelling case to get the pay-per-view remedy, and I really feel fairly snug saying that.

To begin with, this is likely to be essentially the most random matchup the UFC has made up to now decade. It actually makes zero sense. Mitchell has misplaced two of three—clearly, shedding to one of many three finest fighters on the planet is nothing to shake a stick at—was on the receiving finish of one of many scariest knockouts I’ver ever seen, and squeaked by Dan Ige in a battle I scored for Ige watching dwell. He’s a ranked fighter with a little bit of a reputation, and can be an ideal opponent for the Jean Silvas, Chepe Mariscals, and Youssef Zalals of the world, guys who’re getting good wins and displaying top-15 potential. Kron Gracie seemed completely horrible in his final battle towards a man who was perhaps within the top-35 within the division. That’s simply the reality of the matter.

Not solely is it nonsensical matchmaking, however giving Gracie a important card battle on the APEX appears to be a bridge too far proper now. To reward him with this matchup, and card placement after what he confirmed within the Charles Jourdain battle is wild. Perhaps he’s turned the nook, and perhaps this finally ends up being a show-stealer, and whether it is, I’ll fortunately comply with via with proverbial hand up accountability. Wouldn’t be the primary time, definitely gained’t be the final.

Having stated that, the truth that this battle will get increased billing than one in the identical division with legit title implications is ridiculous. Movsar Evloev vs. Aljamain Sterling deserves the spot, plain and easy. The Nate Landwehr vs. Doo Ho Choi battle goes to be a automobile crash, and we all know why that’s on the primary card, so even if you wish to play the, “Effectively, Dana White known as Evloev boring, and Sterling is boring, too” card (I’ve seen this stated many instances on social media), it shouldn’t matter. There’s simply no denying Evloev-Sterling is a higher-level battle, and if we’re going to look at a 145-pound matchup that would get somewhat bizarre on pay-per-view, I’d favor it to have excessive stakes, in comparison with only a few.

Meshew: So Mr. Heck makes the clear and apparent case {that a} title eliminator bout deserves to be on the primary card, which is difficult to argue. However argue I shall as a result of, spoiler alert, the UFC bought it proper!

May you place Evloev vs. Sterling, or Anthony Smith vs. Dominick Reyes, and even Chris Weidman vs. Eryk Anders on the primary card? Definitely. However the place’s the enjoyable in that? What are these fights actually for? Win bonuses and private delight, the identical as each different battle. Nay, we reject such frequent concepts and as an alternative we aspire to one thing extra.

Mitchell vs. Gracie is sort of presumably an important battle of the fashionable period. We venerate the good males of historical past like Alexander the Nice and Julius Caesar and Marcus Aurelius as a result of they have been warrior poets, thinker kings. And the battle between Mitchell and Gracie is probably the primary time in historical past two such males will conflict contained in the octagon.

Solely Mitchell and Gracie have the knowledge and humility to forged off centuries of “scientific consensus” and “fundamental rational thought” to acknowledge the Earth for what it’s: a flat disc driving on the again of a turtle in outer house. Whereas some may mock Mitchell and Gracie as credulous buffoons, too gullible to be trusted with sharp objects, these persons are the true fools and a part of the bigger conspiracy by Large Globe to maintain their gross sales numbers up.

Thankfully, the UFC sees how completely vital it’s to present these two visionaries the largest platform potential and a dwell microphone to allow them to share their message with the world (discover how I didn’t say “round” the world?). And you’d deny the folks this once-in-a-lifetime alternative so Evloev can say one thing banal about Ilia Topuria ducking him?

Disgrace on you, sheeple.