UFC Abu Dhabi: Finest betting props, parlays and picks | Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov

UFC Abu Dhabi on ABC takes place this weekend (Sat., Aug. 3, 2024) from inside Etihad Enviornment in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The occasion is stacked in comparison with most UFC non PPV occasions. Should you learn Sports activities Politika by Karim Zidan, you recognize that UFC is in a tough spot between UAE and Saudi Arabia. And that every time they please a type of nations, they — consequently — threat displeasing the opposite. This excellent Abu Dhabi card is perhaps in response to UFC’s try and make good after its debut in Riyadh earlier this 12 months (and the forthcoming Saudi sponsored Sphere occasion).

Regardless of the reasoning behind it, this weekend we’re handled to a improbable card that we don’t want to remain up late for (if you’re on United States japanese time like me). The primary occasion sees Bantamweight contenders Cory Sandhagen and Umar Nurmagomedov struggle it out for a title shot in opposition to the winner of Sean O’Malley and Merab Dvalishvili, who struggle at stated Sphere occasion. The co-main occasion options the curiosity that’s Shara Magomedov. He’s taking over Michal Oleksiejczuk within the Welterweight division. The co-main was alleged to be Nick Diaz vs. Vicente Luque, that was till maybe Diaz discovered how lengthy the flight can be.

Additionally on the principle card, we’ve bought Marlon Vera versus former Flyweight champ Deiveson Figueiredo, Tony Ferguson vs. Michael Chiesa, Mackenzie Dern vs. Crazy Godinez and Joel Alvarez vs. Elves Brener.

The “Prelims” are headlined by Guram Kutateladze vs. Jordan Vucenic. The undercard additionally has Shamil Gaziev vs. Don’Story Mayes and Alonzo Menifield vs. Azamat Murzakanov.

Let’s checkout the moneylines on “Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov” and all the opposite bouts on the cardboard …

UFC Abu Dhabi Foremost Card Cash Line Odds

Cory Sandhagen (+245) vs. Umar Nurmagomedov (-305)

This can be a very thrilling match-up and initially I used to be somewhat stunned to see the chances up to now aside. Nonetheless, they began to make sense the extra I studied the match-up.

Cory Sandhagen is Bantamweight’s nearly-man in that each time he has a little bit of momentum driving him to a title shot he will get pegged again. He was 5-0 to begin his UFC profession earlier than Aljamain Sterling tapped him within the first spherical and leapfrogged him for a UFC title shot. He destroyed Marlon Moraes by way of wheel kick (see that right here) and obliterated Frankie Edgar with a flying knee (see that right here) however then misplaced an in depth cut up choice to T.J. Dillashaw, who then leapfrogged him for a title shot. After a unanimous choice loss to Petr Yan, Sandhagen has regrouped and gone on a 3 struggle successful streak with victories over Tune Yadong, Marlon Vera and Rob Font.

So, will this be the time Sandhagen will get over the hump and scores the win that equals a shot at gold? Or will this be like all the opposite occasions, the place a disappointing defeat results in his opponent getting that shot and him being left on the surface wanting in, once more?

There’s been no rocky street for Umar Nurmagomedov. Khabib’s cousin is 17-0 with 5 of these wins coming within the UFC. He’s seemed dominant, although that’s in opposition to opposition far beneath Sandhagen (or anybody Sandhagen has fought within the final 4 years). Nurmagomedov’s notable wins within the Octagon embrace a choke in opposition to Brian Kelleher in 2022 (see it right here) and a KO in opposition to Raoni Barcelos in 2023 (see it right here).

The bookies clearly consider Nurmagomedov shouldn’t be judged for his previous opponents and that he’s greater than able to getting a win over Sandhagen and setting himself up for a title shot. The general public are in slight settlement with this, too. Nurmagomedov’s opening line was -278 and that’s now shortened by round 3 p.c. Sandhagen opened at +225 and that appears set to rise all week. That’s nice information in the event you just like the underdog right here.

It’s arduous to depend Sandhagen out of a struggle in opposition to somebody who is just not elite at 135 lbs. We’ve merely by no means seen Sandhagen battle in opposition to somebody who is just not a bona fide contender. For that cause this will likely be an important check (and measuring stick) for Nurmagomedov.

I personally suppose Nurmagomedov will be capable of go the check, although.

Everyone knows that Nurmagomedov goes to be looking for takedowns on this struggle. Total, Sandhagen’s takedown protection is sweet at 64 p.c. Nonetheless, that quantity is inflated by his bout with Dillashaw the place he defended 17 of 19 takedowns. Nurmagomedov’s 4.51 takedowns per quarter-hour is increased than something he’s ever seen earlier than, although. Nurmagomedov was just lately capable of go 3 for 4 on takedowns in opposition to Nate Maness, who has a takedown defence of 80 p.c.

It’s apparent that Sandhagen’s greatest likelihood for a win is on the ft on this match-up, or in mid-air with a leaping knee as Nurmagomedov goes for a takedown. Sandhagen could have a one inch attain benefit. Nonetheless, his putting stats don’t blow away Nurmagomedov’s personal stats. Sandhagen lands 5.33 sig. strikes per minute with a 44 p.c accuracy. Nurmagomedov lands 4.75 sig. strikes with a 69 p.c accuracy (albeit largely when on the bottom). And Nurmagomedov has a 76 p.c putting protection (which leads the division) and is way increased than Sandhagen’s 58 p.c.

Mainly, I don’t see a path to victory for Sandhagen right here. And his greatest photographs, excessive octane knee and kick assaults, can be horrible concepts on this struggle, with Nurmagomedov being greater than able to catching him mid-flight and dumping him on the bottom.

Sadly for the Sandman I believe this will likely be one other case of him being left out for a title shot at Bantamweight.

Prediction: Umar Nurmagomedov by way of submission (spherical 3).

Picture by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Pictures

Shara Magomedov (-238) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (+195)

We’re nonetheless ready to see how good Shara Magomedov is perhaps. I positively don’t suppose he’s a possible fraud, although, regardless of him wanting a little underwhelming in his early UFC fights. I believe the expectations placed on him have been somewhat unfair and that’s a part of the explanation why there are lingering questions over his ceiling.

This can be a match-up designed to brush away these issues, although.

Michal Oleksiejczuk heads to Abu Dhabi after losses to dynamic strikers Kevin Holland and Michel Perreira. Each of these guys had been capable of get Oleksiejczuk out of there with first spherical submissions. Perreira choked him out at UFC 299 (see it right here) and Holland wrecked his arm at UFC 302 (see it right here). These had been the fifth and sixth submissions losses of his profession (75 p.c of his profession losses are submissions).

Oleksiejczuk has been sturdier on the ft, with just one TKO loss on his document (in 2014 throughout his time on the Polish circuit).

Oleksiejczuk will likely be prepared striker in opposition to Magomedov and that’s why he has such lengthy odds on this struggle. Magomedov’s muay thai has seemed very harmful in his first two UFC bouts, however he hasn’t seemed completely composed or comfy sufficient beneath the brilliant lights but. I believe because the UFC routine turns into extra common to him we’ll see extra free flowing offense and higher outcomes, beginning this Saturday.

Oleksiejczuk is an efficient striker, however I believe Magomedov’s exercise and creativity will garner related outcomes to what Perreira had in opposition to Oleksiejczuk (nearly 75 p.c conversion on important strikes). If that occurs, I believe Olekziejczuk will, at greatest, get too damage to implement his personal putting recreation or, at worst, be dropped for his second profession TKO loss.

Choose: Shara Magomedov by way of TKO, spherical 3.

Picture by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Pictures

Marlon Vera (+114) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (-135)

This can be a actually powerful bout to name.

Former UFC Flyweight champ Deiveson Figueiredo debuted at Bantamweight with a unanimous choice over Rob Font in 2023 after which, at UFC 300 this 12 months, he submitted Cody Garbrandt (see it right here). Garbrandt is a a lot diminished power, however the win over Font demonstrates, in my view, that Figgy can compete at 135 kilos.

Marlon Vera is somewhat like Cory Sandhagen in that he takes one step forwards and two steps again. He’s a ten 12 months UFC vet, however he’s solely reached elite standing at Bantamweight prior to now couple of years. In 2021 and 2022 he went on a successful streak that included victories over Font, Frankie Edgar and Dominick Cruz to separate him from the pack. He was then pegged again by a Cory Sandhagen cut up choice in 2023.

Later that 12 months he beat Pedro Munhoz to earn a title shot in opposition to O’Malley (somebody he TKO’d earlier of their careers — see it right here). In opposition to O’Malley at UFC 299, Vera misplaced a unanimous choice because of being stifled by O’Malley’s vary preventing.

Vera could have some dimension over Figueiredo, however not a ton. He’s three inches taller and has two inches of attain on him. Their putting stats are fairly related, each are 50 p.c on sig. strike protection and they’re very shut on sig. putting accuracy (55 p.c for Figueiredo vs. 49 p.c for Vera). The largest distinction is in sig. strikes absorbed per-minute, with Vera taking 5.48 photographs versus Figueiredo’s 3.38.

In terms of energy, Figueiredo may need the sting. He has 11 knockdowns in his UFC profession throughout 16 fights. Vera has 10 knockdowns throughout 23 fights. Vera leads the division with finishes (10) and KO/TKO wins (6), however a number of that is because of his longevity within the promotion. Figueiredo time in Flyweight has him on high the document books there with finishes (7) and KO/TKO wins (4).

I don’t foresee this struggle being something apart from a kickboxing bout, but when it does find yourself on the bottom, Figueiredo has the higher talent set there. Although, Vera has by no means been overwhelmed on the bottom (and by no means been submitted). Nonetheless, apart from Munhoz, he’s not confronted an ace on the bottom within the UFC. And the struggle with Munhoz was spent completely on the ft.

In the end my decide goes to be for Figueiredo since I believe he’ll simply shade Vera within the putting exchanges and that he may be capable of land a takedown right here and there. Each guys have proven that, at occasions, they will ‘take a look at’ mentally in fights, although, so I can’t be that assured in taking both of them.

Prediction: Deiveson Figueiredo by way of cut up choice.

Picture by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Pictures

Tony Ferguson (+490) vs. Michael Chiesa (-675)

What 12 months is that this?

This weekend we’ve got two TUF winners dealing with off, who come from an period when TUF was really value watching.

We will’t speak about Tony Ferguson with out recognizing that he’s presently on the worst shedding streak in UFC historical past. The 40-year-old El Cucy has been shedding for therefore lengthy now that his 12-fight successful streak, throughout which he was acknowledged as one of the harmful fighters within the sport, appears like historic historical past. The successful streak was snapped when he was TKO’d by Justin Gaethje in the course of the peak of the pandemic (see it right here). Since then he’s misplaced six occasions. Most just lately he misplaced a call to Paddy Pimblett, which got here after a submission loss to King Inexperienced (see it right here).

Michael Chiesa has suffered a heck of a decline, too. Nonetheless, his comes because of lengthy damage induced lay-offs. These accidents prevented Chiesa from realizing his potential throughout his athletic prime. He did safe a 4 struggle successful streak between 2018 and 2021, preventing simply annually, the place he bought the higher of Rafael dos Anjos, Carlos Condit, Diego Sanchez and Neil Magny.

When he bought off the veteran’s tour he was submitted by each Vicente Luque (see it right here) and Kevin Holland (see that right here).

Chiesa is 36, however his damage document in all probability has his physique feeling 5 years older than that.

It’s very arduous to guess how this struggle will go. Neither man fights wherever near how they did throughout their prime. The oddsmakers have Chiesa as an enormous favourite right here, largely as a result of insecurity in Ferguson to do something constructive contained in the cage.

It feels unattainable to choose Ferguson, so my decide is for Cheisa (by default).

Choose: Michael Chiesa by way of unanimous choice.

Picture by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Pictures

Mackenzie Dern (-125) vs. Crazy Godinez (+105)

After a gradual weight loss program of strikers just lately Macknzie Dern will get to face a wrestler at UFC Abu Dhabi within the type of Crazy Godinez. That is perhaps a welcome change for her, having misplaced a bruising encounter to Amanda Lemos final day out and being TKO’d by Jessica Andrade earlier than that (see it right here). Simply earlier than these losses she beat Angela Hill in a stand-up battle.

These fights have seen Dern compete eagerly on the ft, to her personal detriment. She has been capable of get most of her latest fights to the bottom and luxuriate in lengthy intervals of management. Nonetheless, her place over submission mentality has meant that finishes on the bottom have been few and much between. Her final submission got here in 2021 with an arm bar over Nina Nunes (see it right here). That’s solely her fourth submission win in 13 UFC fights. By now she ought to have realized that her grappling dominance, with no killer intuition, is just not sufficient to get her wins within the UFC’s best girls’s division.

She may get to spend so much of time on the bottom with Godinez. But when she does, can she convert that to a win? The oddsmakers appear not sure of that. They’ve this struggle as a decide ‘em.

Godinez is 7-4 in UFC and she or he, like Dern, has usually been drawn away from her greatest talent (wrestling) to interact in a kickboxing match in opposition to another person who could be very comfy doing so.

Final day out she misplaced a unanimous choice to Virna Jandiroba. Avoiding submission in opposition to Jandiroba there (who seemed unbelievable versus Amanda Lemos just lately) is perhaps an indication that she’s capable of climate any storm Dern may carry her approach on the bottom.

Earlier than that she picked up a cut up choice win over Tabatha Ricci, in a struggle primarily fought on the ft.

I believe how this struggle goes actually is determined by Godinez’s temper and gameplan. If she decides she will hold with Dern on the bottom and preserve her pinned whereas she softens her up with punches, then I believe she’s going to be capable of get Dern down and take a look at that. If she decides she will beat Dern in a low quantity kickboxing match, then I believe she’s going to be capable of engineer that, too.

If she picks the bottom, although, she is enjoying with extra threat than if she retains issues standing. If she picks standing, there’s little cause to suppose Dern will be capable of cease her (she has a 15% takedown accuracy vs. Godinez’s 85 p.c protection — which is second highest the division).

As a result of I consider Godinez has the liberty to decide on the place this one takes place, I’m going to choose her. I believe she’ll select the kickboxing choice and be capable of field her well beyond Dern.

Choose: Crazy Godinez by way of unanimous choice

Picture by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Pictures

Joel Alvarez (-192) vs. Elves Brener (+160)

I believe this can be a shut struggle. Elves Brener misplaced to Mytykbek Orolbai just lately, however there have been moments in that struggle the place he had the recent prospect in hassle. The loss was his first within the UFC and adopted his KO win over Kaynan Krushewsky (see that right here) and TKO victory over Guram Kutateladze (see that right here).

Alvarez choked out Marc Diakiese in his final struggle (see it right here). That noticed him rebound from a brutal TKO loss to Arman Tsarukyan (see that right here). His previous two fights had been each stoppages, a standing TKO on Thiago Moises (see it right here) and an armbar on Alexander Yakovlev. He did miss weight for each these wins, although.

Each Alvarez and Brener are licensed finishers, so there’s a great likelihood this one doesn’t go to the judges’ scorecards.

Each are additionally fairly nicely rounded, with artful (and violent) arise video games and BJJ designed to finish fights (not management them).

Alvarez is a weight class bully and he’ll have 5 inches of peak and 5 inches of attain over Brener. I believe which may make the distinction on this struggle. I believe each guys will likely be prepared to commerce, however that vary will let Alvarez land photographs Brener won’t be capable of match.

By no means depend out Brener completely, although. He beat Kutateladze as a +475 underdog and Zubaira Tukhugov as a +470 underdog.

Choose: Joel Alvarez by way of TKO, spherical 2.

UFC Abu Dhabi ‘Prelims’ Below Card Odds

Picture by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Pictures

Alonzo Menifield (+170) vs. Azamat Murzakanov (-205)

Alonzo Menfield is one of some guys on this card who shouldn’t have picked up the cellphone once they noticed Hunter Campbell was calling. He’s coming off a 12 second TKO loss to Carlos Ulberg two months in the past (see it right here). If this weren’t so quickly after that loss I’d be tempted to choose Menifield right here, partly due to his 5 inch attain benefit.

Azamat Murzakanov is an thrilling 13-0 fighter with spotlight reel finishes over Tafon Nchukwi (see it right here) and Devin Clark. And he’s coming off a unanimous choice win over Dustin Jacoby.

Menifield has a latest unanimous choice win over Dustin Jacoby, too. In his struggle with Jacoby Menifield landed 95 of 145 (58 p.c) sig. strikes and scored one in every of two takedown makes an attempt. Murzakanov landed 67 of 127 sig. strikes (52 p.c) and went 1 of 5 on takedowns. Menifield was capable of financial institution 2:03 of management time in opposition to Jacoby (and quit 2:08). Murzakanov solely managed 16 seconds of management time and gave up 3:06 in his Jacoby struggle. Jacoby was capable of land 93 sig. strikes on Menifield and 64 sig. strikes on Muzakanov.

I can see Menifield with the ability to hit Murzakanov from vary, similar to Jacoby did (who has the identical attain as Menifield) and in addition be robust sufficient to regulate him within the clinch. Nonetheless, with the Ulberg loss being so latest and Menifield making the longer journey, I fancy the undefeated Murzakanov to win this one.

Choose: Azamat Murzakanov by way of TKO, spherical 1.

Mohammad Yahya (+310) vs. Kaue Fernandes (-395)

These guys are each 0-1 within the UFC. Mohammad Yahya is from the UAE. He misplaced a call to Trevor Peek at UFC 294 in March. He’s 30-years-old with a so-so document in UAE Warriors and Bellator. I believe he’s preventing on this card simply because he’s obtainable.

Kaue Fernandes is 29-years-old and he misplaced a cut up choice to Marc Diakiese in 2023. He had a so-so document in LFA. He’s not had a really energetic profession, simply 10 fights in 11 years.

The oddsmakers just like the journeyman right here, however this can be a coin flip for me.

Choose: Mohammad Yahya by way of choice.

Shamil Gaziev (-225) vs. Don’Story Mayes (+185)

Don’Story Mayes is coming off a unanimous choice win over Caio Machado in April. He’s been up and down within the UFC, shedding boring choices to Rodrigo Nascimento and Augusto Sakai, but additionally TKO’ind Andrei Arlovski (see it right here) and Josh Parisian (with a crucifix — see it right here).

Shamil Gaziev fights out of close by Bahrain. He misplaced his undefeated document after retiring between rounds versus Jairzinho Rozenstruik in a stinker of a essential occasion in March (because of gassing out – see it right here). Previous to that he bludgeoned Martin Buday (see it right here) and scored a submission win on Contender Collection.

Gaziev is the favourite right here, however I like Mayes. He can struggle for 3 rounds, one thing Gaziev has a number of hassle with. Gaziev wants to complete fights early and Mayes has proven he’s fairly sturdy (and he’s by no means been completed within the first spherical). Mayes additionally has a slight attain benefit and fairly first rate takedown protection for a Heavyweight.

Choose: Don’Story Mayes by way of unanimous choice

Guram Kutateladze (-218) vs. Jordan Vucenic (+180)

Guram Kutateladze has fallen off as a prospect after losses to Elves Brener and Damir Ismagulov. These losses got here after a cut up choice quick discover win over Mateusz Gamrot in his UFC debut.

That is Jordan Vucenic’s UFC debut after signing from Cage Warriors, a company the place he was Featherweight champion for a time (having crushed Morgan Charriere). He has a cool submission recreation and I believe he’s value a glance as an underdog right here, particularly because of Kutateladze’s failure to launch within the Octagon.

Choose: Jordan Vucenic by way of submission, spherical 1.

Victoria Dudakova (-170) vs. Sam Hughes (+142)

Victoria Dudakova is now 2-0 in UFC after a weight miss assisted win over Jinh Yu Frey (a pure atomweight) final October. Sam Hughes is coming off a call loss to Yazmin Jauregui. She’s presently 3-5 in UFC. I believe Dudakova has a better ceiling than what we’ve seen from Hughes presently, however as issues stand proper now — I believe this can be a fairly shut struggle. Hughes, because of her expertise, ought to be capable of make issues uncomfortable for Dudakova, however I’m nonetheless choosing the undefeated Russian, who could have dimension, athleticism and pace on her aspect.

Choose: Victoria Dudakova by way of unanimous choice

Jai Herbert (-142) vs. Rolando Bedoya (+120)

Rolando Bedoya (who’s coming down from Welterweight for this struggle) wants a win after back-to-back choice losses to Kenan Tune and Khaos Williams to begin his UFC profession. Jai Herbert turned 36 just lately and his UFC document dropped to 2-4-1 with a loss to Fares Ziam final day out. Herbert is aware of methods to manufacture wins within the Octagon, like he did over Kyle Nelson. We don’t know if Bedoya can do this but.

Choose: Jai Herbert by way of unanimous choice

Sedriques Dumas (-218) vs. Denis Tiuliulin (+180)

Sedriques Dumas bought a journey visa for this?

Dumas was TKO’d by Nursulton Ruziboev in March (see it right here). Denis Tiuliulin has had some powerful match-making in UFC. He’s coming off back-to-back TKO losses to Christian Leroy Duncan and Gregory Rodrigues (see these right here and right here). Earlier than that he was tapped out by Jun Yong Park. He’s simply 1-4 in UFC up to now. Dumas, who has dimension, youth and athleticism going for him right here, ought to be capable of get previous Tiuliulin.

Choose: Sedriques Dumas by way of unanimous choice

Picture by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Pictures

UFC Abu Dhabi Prop Bets & Parlays

Right here’s a few issues that look attention-grabbing for this Saturday’s UFC Abu Dhabi card …

Shara Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk – Over 1.5 rounds (-140)

DraftKings has only a few props out for this occasion. Which means Shara Magomedov to have a degree deduction is off the desk. I used to be robbed of that in his final struggle. I really suppose he’ll behave himself on this one with Michal Oleksiejczuk. As a substitute I’ll take the over on this struggle, anticipating Magomedov to proceed his development of gradual begins and for Oleksiejczuk to offer him extra resistance than he’s confronted to date in his profession.

Two decide parlay: Crazy Godinez +3.5 vs Mackenzie Dern and Umar Nurmagomedov to defeat Cory Sandhagen (+112)

These are two outcomes I’m fairly assured in and once we pair them collectively we get plus odds.

Umar Nurmagomedov has an excellent likelihood of with the ability to rag-doll Cory Sandhagen and keep away from his house run swings. His environment friendly and defensive putting will shock Sandhagen, too. Throughout 5 rounds, Sandhagen will likely be taken down so much and there’s a great likelihood he’ll get damaged down and submitted late.

I don’t suppose Mackenzie Dern will end Crazy Godinez. Godinez might select to maintain this complete struggle standing and Dern gained’t be capable of power her to do in any other case (her takedown proportion is woeful). If Godinez does go to the bottom, she’ll be on high of Dern. She may survive Virna Jandiroba, so I believe she’s going to survive Dern. If this does go to a call, even when Dern wins it she gained’t be successful it by greater than 3 factors.

Alonzo Menified vs. Azamat Murzakanov – Below 1.5 rounds (+120)

These boys will likely be swinging for the fences and I don’t like that Menifield is right here lower than three months after being dropped by Carlos Ulberg. Menifield is a quick strarter, for higher or worse. I believe there’s a great likelihood he initiates and early change that ends the struggle. Whether or not he lands the final punch or will get slept, once more, doesn’t matter for this wager.

UFC Abu Dhabi Ballot Time

Which of the sooner props and parlays do you just like the look of probably the most?

Acquired one thing higher than these? Effectively, don’t be stingy. Hit us with them within the feedback.

Do not forget that MMAmania.com will ship LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow protection of all the UFC Abu Dhabi struggle card proper right here, beginning with the ESPN2/ESPN+ “Prelims” matches, that are scheduled to start at 12 p.m. ET, then the remaining essential card steadiness on ABC (simulcast on ESPN+) at 3 p.m. ET.

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