UFC Denver: Greatest betting props, parlays and picks | Namajunas vs. Cortez

UFC Denver takes place this weekend (Sat., July 13, 2024) inside Ball Area in Denver, Colorado. The excessive altitude venue will host former two-time ladies’s Strawweight champion, Rose Namajunas, taking over Tracy Cortez (who’s coming in on quick discover for Maycee Barber) in the principle occasion. The co-main for this one is Santiago Ponzinibbio versus Muslim Salikhov. There’s additionally Drew Dober vs. Jean Silva (who fought two weeks in the past).

The “Prelims” are headlined by Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Fatima Kline. The early fights additionally embrace Joshua Van vs. Charles Johnson and Luana Santos vs. Mariya Agapova.

Let’s checkout the moneylines on “Namajunas vs. Cortez” and all the opposite bouts on the cardboard …

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UFC Denver Important Card Cash Line Odds

Rose Namajunas (-180) vs. Tracy Cortez (+180)

This card was constructed round Namajunas, a former two-time Strawweight champion. Initially we had been going to see her in opposition to magical amulet proponent (Barber). That might have been a superb match-up that might have answered a lot of questions within the Flyweight division, together with whether or not Namajunas (at 32) was nonetheless a pressure and potential title challenger and whether or not Barber (on a six-fight win streak) is able to graduate from pretender to contender.

This bout would have additionally featured two ladies who’re primarily based in Colorado and are very accustomed to Denver’s altitude (5,280 ft. above sea degree) — Namajunas is predicated in Arvada (5,525 ft.) and Barber fights out of Greeley (4,675 ft.). Nonetheless, an damage to Barber means we have now Cortez — out of Scottsdale, Ariz. (2,165 ft.) — flown in as a substitute.

Scottsdale isn’t San Diego, granted. However, Cortez having much less time to acclimatize to Denver’s altitude may be the telling issue on this battle (and plenty of others on this card). I don’t wish to counsel that altitude is the principle issue for all these fights. However, we will’t low cost it and we’ve seen loads of fights in Denver the place one or each fighters appear to gasoline out shortly and might’t summon up the power to placed on an thrilling battle (or one that might elicit a end).

Namajunas comes into this battle after a five-round resolution win over Amanda Ribas (try the highlights right here) in March. Namajunas gained through unanimous resolution, however she didn’t have all of it her means with Ribas. Certainly, Ribas was in a position to land a variety of punches on Namajunas (83) and even rating 4 takedowns. Namajunas loved 5 instances as a lot management time as Ribas did, although, due to her capacity to get on prime of Ribas and maintain her down.

Cortez has a excessive motor and is relentless with each her putting and stress takedown recreation. That has seen her rack up six UFC wins in a row (together with her Contender Collection win over Mariya Agapova (who options within the “Prelims”). Cortez joined UFC in 2019 after a break up resolution win over Erin Blanchfield in Invicta.

Regardless of her win streak and her bettering Namajunas in some vital stats (vital strikes landed, putting accuracy, takedown common, takedown protection), Cortez is the slight underdog right here. I feel a variety of that’s due to the scenario across the battle; the quick discover facet plus the elevation and the very fact Cortez has by no means fought for 5 rounds.

To select Cortez right here I feel you must imagine she will cease Namajunas throughout the first few rounds. I personally don’t see her with the ability to sustain over a 5 spherical battle given the issue’s we’ve already mentioned, particularly if she has to hold Namajunas for many of the battle.

Cortez’s solely knockout win is from Combate in 2018 when she fought somebody who was 1-0. The one time Namajunas has been knocked out was as a consequence of a slam (keep in mind this?). Cortez’s solely submission win was in 2018 in opposition to a girl who’s presently 3-5 with three of her losses being by submission. Namajunas’ solely submission loss was to Carla Esparza on the season finale of The Final Fighter 20.

I simply don’t see Cortez with the ability to sustain on this battle. I feel she’ll have some success early on, however Namajunas will have the ability to smother her and drag her into the proverbial deep waters on path to a call win.

Decide: Rose Namajunas through unanimous resolution

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Santiago Ponzinibbio (-205) vs. Muslim Salikhov (+170)

Once more, I don’t assume elevation is the one issue at play on this card. However, it’s an attention-grabbing variable we should always take into account. In that curiosity I’ll be sharing the elevation ranges for every of the locations these fighters are coaching in. Although, there’s no solution to know precisely what sort of elevation coaching these guys have performed main as much as this. On this match-up, Santiago Ponznibbio has the elevation drawback with coaching out of La Plata, Argentina (85 ft.). Muslim Salikhov fights out of Buynaksk, Dagestan (1,607 ft.). Each these guys would possibly wrestle up in Denver, although.

This isn’t that thrilling of a co-main occasion. I want that was shocking, however that simply appears the order of enterprise now, even when UFC takes the present out of the APEX.

Ponzinibbio is 2-4 in his final six and hasn’t seemed the identical since a bone and blood an infection stored him out of motion for 3 years and virtually value him his profession (and life). Throughout that run he starched Alex Morono (see it right here) and took a call over Miguel Baeza. Given these guys’ final appearances, that doesn’t really feel that spectacular. Ponzinibbio’s losses are respectable, although. He was badly crushed by Kevin Holland in April (see that KO right here), however his different losses had been break up selections to Michel Pereira and Geoff Neal. Previous to these he was KO’d by Li Jingliang, in his first bout since coming back from that damage lay-off.

Salikhov is 3-3 in his final six and is coming off a knockout loss to Randy Brown in March (see it right here). He was additionally stopped by Li Jingliang. His wins are over Andre Fialho, Francisco Trinaldo and Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos.

These two have a mixed age of 77, with Salikhov the marginally older man at 40-years-old.

I feel this may very well be an actual slog to get by way of. I favor Ponzinibbio on this match-up since he’s not fairly 40 and he has a slight attain benefit. It gained’t be straightforward or very spectacular from him, although. I feel Salikhov will have the ability to land punches on him, however I feel he’ll do it at a slower clip than Ponznibbio and he gained’t have the vitality wanted for a knockout blow.

Decide: Santiago Ponzinibbio through unanimous resolution

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Drew Dober (-110) vs. Jean Silva (-110)

This ought to be enjoyable. Drew Dober is a Denver boy so no worries about altitude for him. Jean Silva has been parachuted into the mountains after his gorgeous uppercut victory over Charles Jourdain at UFC 303. Silva is from Sao Paulo (2,493 ft.) and I doubt he’s had a lot time to acclimatize to Colorado prior to now two weeks.

I’d be extra apprehensive about Silva’s conditioning if he wasn’t constructed to complete fights shortly. The bookies clearly agree that the mountain air (or lack thereof) gained’t hamper Silva too badly. He’s in a choose ‘em right here with Dober, regardless of coming in on quick discover (rather than Mike Davis).

This battle has “Battle of the Night time” written throughout it. We all know Dober can throw down in an entertaining brawl and, to date, Silva seems to be to have a enjoyable and funky model that can produce a lot of knockouts within the Octagon.

I do fear that Silva’s cruising and goofing won’t work on somebody who isn’t as tentative as Jourdain was at UFC 303. But when Silva is ready to land punches on Dober, I do assume they’ll go away a mark. Dober will take a success to land one and I don’t assume that’s a good suggestion in opposition to Silva. Silva has proven pure stopping energy, albeit in a small pattern dimension. Dober is famed for a troublesome chin, however that may solely final so lengthy (as evidenced by his TKO loss to Matt Frevola final 12 months).

I hope recency bias isn’t getting the very best of me right here, however I like Silva to proceed the Preventing Nerds’ win streak and end an overzealous Dober with a brutal counter shot.

Decide: Jean Silva through KO, spherical 1

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Gabriel Bonfim (-340) vs. Ange Loosa (+270)

Gabriel Bonfim is the large favourite right here. And I can see why. Bonfim was shocked final day out with a Nicolas Dalby knee to the face (see that TKO right here), however he’s seemed a terrifying prospect up till that time. Dalby is likely one of the hardest underdogs within the sport, so I don’t decide Bonfim too harshly for being shocked by the “Nice Dane.” Previous to that loss he had all submissions in his UFC profession, together with a mounted guillotine over Mounir Lazzez (see it right here).

Ange Loosa is but to make any waves in UFC. He misplaced his Contender Collection bout in 2021 (to Jack Della Maddalena, although) and wanted to beat up John Howard (keep in mind him?) in XMMA to earn his call-up again to UFC. In correct UFC motion he’s misplaced to Mounir Lazzez through resolution and brought resolution wins over AJ Fletcher and Rhys McKee. Final day out he fought to a no contest with Bryan Battle as a consequence of a watch poke (see it right here, together with the close to brawl that adopted).

Loosa is a quantity striker, however that’s not result in any stoppage wins in UFC. The one stoppages on his file are from the Swiss regional scene. I don’t imagine his putting will likely be sufficient of a deterrent for Bonfim right here.

Loosa has good takedown protection on paper (90 %), however he’s but to face a very good takedown artist in his profession. I feel Bonfim ought to have the ability to get him to the bottom and work his submission recreation with few impediments.

Additionally, Bonfim trains in Brasilia (1,172 m). Loosa fights out of Kill Cliff MMA in Deerfield Seaside, Fla. (3.96 m).

Decide: Gabriel Bonfim through submission, spherical 1

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Julian Erosa (+170) vs. Christian Rodriguez (-205)

There’s no actual benefit for both man in the case of elevation right here. Julian Erosa’s Yakima, Wash., is 325 m above sea degree. Christian Rodriguez’s Milwaukee, Wisc., is 188 m.

Rodriguez is on a pleasant run, having crushed Raul Rosas Jr. final 12 months and adopted that up with wins over Cameron Saaiman and Isaac Dulgarian. That run would look implausible if he hadn’t missed weight for the Rosas and Saaiman fights (each at Bantamweight). That is his second bout at Featherweight so I don’t anticipate him to have any points on the scales.

The veteran Erosa will likely be making his fifteenth stroll to the Octagon on Saturday (not together with a Contender Collection look). He choked out Ricardo Ramos in March, after getting badly harm (see it right here). That adopted (technical) knockout losses to Fernando Padilla (see that early stoppage right here) and Alex Caceres. These two losses make it seven (technical) knockout losses in Erosa’s profession. The stoppages depend for 64 % of his skilled losses, so we’re proper to query Erosa’s chin and sturdiness.

Rodriguez isn’t more likely to expose Erosa’s chin. Solely three of his eleven wins have come through stoppages as a consequence of strikes. Rodriguez might not have a variety of energy, however he’s composed and scientific. He’s additionally defensively sound. He ought to have the ability to hit Erosa usually and keep away from any of Erosa’s residence run swings.

Erosa is most harmful on the bottom, however Rodriguez isn’t any slouch there both. Rodriguez in all probability isn’t fearful of going to floor with Erosa, however he actually doesn’t have to go there to get the win right here. He’s received good takedown protection, so it may be arduous for Erosa to pressure this battle to the mat if and when he will get in bother standing.

Decide: Christian Rodriguez through unanimous resolution

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Abdul Razak Alhassan (-162) vs. Cody Brundage (+136)

Abdul Razak Alhassan stormed onto the scene all the way in which again in 2016 with a devastating knockout of Conor McGregor’s buddy, Charlie Ward. Within the subsequent few years he blew away Sabah Homasi and Niko Worth, too.

Alhassan was pressured right into a hiatus for causes (over which he was acquitted). And since he’s returned he’s not seemed the identical. He’s been a strolling goal for some heavy hitters within the division, being knocked out chilly by Khaos Williams (see it right here) and choked out by Joe Pyfer (see that right here). He has scored some stoppages over Alessio Di Chirico (through this headkick) and Claudio Ribeiro. Nonetheless, he turns 39 subsequent month, so don’t anticipate any extra upside to come back from him.

Cody Brundage was served up to Bo Nickal in April. Previous to that he slammed out Zach Reese (see it right here) and gained through DQ in opposition to Jacob Malkoun. Stats clever Brundage isn’t far-off from Razak Alhassan within the putting division. He lands far fewer sig. strikes (1.62 vs. 3.37), however he additionally absorbs much less, too (2.3 vs. 3.99). Nonetheless, it’ll be his takedowns that win him this battle.

Brundage averages 2.33 takedowns per quarter-hour and has a 52 % accuracy. Razak Alhassan has a 50 % takedown protection. In his loss to Joaquin Buckley, Razak Alhassan was taken down 5 instances (on eight makes an attempt). That 62 % takedown success was far larger than Buckley’s common (44 %). So, I feel Brundage shouldn’t have an excessive amount of bother taking Razak Alhassan down and holding him down.

Brundage can also be primarily based in Colorado (Englewood, Colo., is 1,637 m above sea degree). Razak Alhassan is coming from Arlington, Texas (184 m). The quickly to be 40-year-old Razak Alhassan would possibly get fairly drained if he has to hold Brundage’s weight for a spherical. I feel there’s a good likelihood Brundage is ready to journey Razak Alhassan for many the battle and rating a ground-and-pound technical knockout as soon as his opponent is just too exhausted to battle again.

Decide: Cody Brundage through TKO, spherical 3

UFC Denver ‘Prelims’ Below Card Odds

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Jasmine Jasudavicius (+102) vs. Fatima Kline (-122)

Jasmine Jasudavicius was alleged to be preventing Viviane Araujo right here. Fatima Kline is available in on lower than every week’s discover. Each these ladies dwell and practice near sea degree. Jasudavicius is in St. Catharaines, Ontario (98 m) and Fatima Kline hails from Hyde Park, N.Y. (76 m).

Kline is the favourite right here regardless of coming in on quick discover. The oddsmakers should assume this battle will likely be a grappling match. Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt Kline is the superior grappler, each within the health club and in grappling competitors. In MMA, she’s undefeated (6-0). Final day out she defeated Andressa Romero for the Cage Fury Preventing Strawweight belt.

The 23-year-old Kline has been an enormous Strawweight in her younger profession. This battle is at Flyweight, although, so she gained’t have the ability to size-bully her opponent right here. Jasudavicius is a pinch taller and longer than her.

Jasudavicius is 35, however I feel that is a type of bouts the place expertise helps greater than it hurts. Jasudavicius doesn’t have a ton of mileage on these 35-years, both. Jasudavicius has additionally fought on large occasions in opposition to some quite well-known opponents (together with one half of the principle occasion right here). And she or he’s coming off the very best win of her profession, a bloody d’arce choke on Priscila Chachoeira (see it right here).

Kline is coming in late, at altitude and in opposition to the very best MMA fighter she’s ever confronted (by a mile). I feel that will likely be an excessive amount of for her and Jasudavicius will have the ability to win this one quite comfortably.

Decide: Jasmine Jasudavicius through unanimous resolution

Joshua Van (-205) vs. Charles Johnson (+180)

Joshua Van is 3-0 to date in his UFC profession with wins over Zhalgas Zhumagulov, Kevin Borjas and Felipe Brunes (through TKO). It’s been a nightmare to get this man booked since then. Since his win over Bunes he’s had the next fights fall by way of: Lucas Rocha, Sumudaerji, Tatsuro Taira, Tagir Ulanbekov. I feel he’s somewhat lucky that a few of these didn’t occur, since a few these guys may need been an excessive amount of too quickly for him.

Charles Johnson is coming off a powerful win over Jake Hadley in Might. That adopted his resolution win over Azat Maksum. Towards Hadley, Johnson seemed clean and managed and was in a position to stuff all of 11 takedowns to verify he might maintain piecing Hadley up from vary.

Van will likely be a way more keen striker than Hadley, although. And he’s performed nicely in opposition to strikers with longer attain than him (Brunes’ attain is simply an inch shorter than Johnson’s). I agree with the oddsmakers right here and assume that Van’s putting (60% of 10 wins coming through Okay/TKO) will likely be an excessive amount of for Johnson.

Nothing notable in the case of altitude right here. Van is from Houston, TX (15 m) and Johnson comes from St. Louis, Mo. (142 m).

Decide: Joshua Van through TKO, spherical 2

Luana Santos (-395) vs. Mariya Agapova (+280)

Sao Paulo’s (760 m) Luana Santos has gained her first two UFC bouts, TKO’ing Juliana Miller in final August and getting a call over Stephanie Egger a couple of months later (whereas lacking weight). She’s coming right down to Flyweight to satisfy Mariya Agapova, who trains in Coconut Creek, FL (3.96 m).

Agapova’s claims to fame, embrace dropping as one of many heaviest favorites in UFC historical past (see it right here) and various off area distractions, a few of which result in a quite bitter rivalry and battle with Maryna Moroz. Agapova’s distraction crammed UFC profession has seen her go 2-3 over the previous 4 years.

Her most up-to-date look was a 2022 loss to Gillian Robertson (who seemed glorious when she overwhelmed and battered Michelle Waterson-Gomez final weekend).

Agapova appeared like an attention-grabbing prospect in Invicta, the place her exercise and meanness overwhelmed some opponents. On the UFC degree, although, she hasn’t been in a position to intimidate her means into victories.

Santos might be going to look to the takedown to safe a victory right here and Agapova’s protection (47 %) means that may be a profitable technique for her. If we didn’t know something about Agapova’s struggles outdoors of the cage, I’d say these are lengthy odds for her. Nonetheless, given the complete image I actually can’t belief that she will likely be centered or able to preventing to her full potential on Saturday.

Decide: Luana Santos through unanimous resolution

Josh Fremd (-110) vs. Andre Petroski (-110)

Josh Fremd and Andre Petroski are each Pennsylvanians, with Fremd coaching out of Pittsburgh (373 m) and Petroski primarily based in Springfield (74 m). Each are coming off TKO losses. Fremd was dropped with a liver shot by Roman Kopylov and Petroski was pounded out by Jacob Malkoun (see that right here).

Fremd is an enormous Middleweight and his attain might trigger issues for Petroski (whose three professional losses are all by TKO). I feel Petroski’s deficiencies on the toes are outweighed by Fremd’s deficiencies as a wrestler, although. He has a woeful 31 % takedown protection. Petroski hits 4.32 takedowns per quarter-hour. If these stats bear out, we’ll see most of this contest on the bottom.

Decide: Andre Petroski through unanimous resolution

Montel Jackson (-162) vs. Da’Mon Blackshear (+136)

Two extra guys from out of state right here, Montel Jackson of Milwaukee, WI (188 m) and Da’Mon Blackshear who trains in Fayetteville, NC (68 m). Jackson TKO’d vet Rani Yahya in his final battle, over a 12 months in the past. That provides him a 4 battle profitable streak, his longest streak since becoming a member of UFC in 2018.

Blackshear misplaced a unanimous resolution to Mario Bautista in his final battle, which was virtually a 12 months in the past. He’s 2-2-1 since becoming a member of the large present in 2022.

Jackson is the extra polished fighter right here, as evidenced by his 64 % putting protection and his 1.38 vital strikes absorbed per minute. His strikes absorbed stat leads the Bantamweight division. Jackson additionally leads the division in takedown share with 68.8 %. A few of this is because of Jackson’s power of schedule, he’s been a big betting favourite in most his previous match-ups. Even so, I feel he’ll have the ability to keep away from Blackshear on the toes and land the takedowns he wants to manage this battle.

Decide: Montel Jackson through unanimous resolution

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UFC Denver Prop Bets & Parlays

Right here’s a few issues that look attention-grabbing for this Saturday’s UFC Denver card …

Gabriel Bonfim Complete Vital Strikes Landed – Below 45.4 (-115)

I feel Bonfim goes to win this battle, however I don’t assume he wants all these strikes to do it. I imagine he can take Loosa down and end him a submission comparatively early. On the bottom Bonfim will likely be searching for submissions and never giving up positions there to land floor and pound. You might additionally money this guess if Loosa is ready to rock Bonfim and put him away (identical to Dalby did in Bonfim’s final battle). Nonetheless, I’ve a sense Bonfim will likely be too sturdy for Loosa and can have him down and tapping someday within the first spherical.

Jean Silva to defeat Drew Dober through KO/TKO/DQ (+185)

If Silva’s going to win this factor it’s almost definitely going to be along with his fingers. He seemed unimaginable in opposition to Jourdain and it simply looks as if there’s one thing within the water over at that Preventing Nerds camp. I’m fairly assured that Dober goes to battle the worst battle potential for him in being keen to trade punches within the pocket. As soon as that occurs, I’ve confidence in Silva with the ability to land the strike that ends this battle.

Two battle parlay: Andre Petroski to defeat Josh Fremd and Christian Rodriguez to defeat Julian Erosa (+186)

These are two of the outcomes I really feel very assured in. Fremd’s takedown protection is surprising and if he’s the one being pressured to place out essentially the most vitality in Denver he’s going to fade fairly shortly. And Rodriguez has a number of paths to victory open to him versus Erosa’s single path (a submission). Rodriguez is best than Erosa standing, he has good wrestling and he gained’t get out-classed on the bottom.

Luana Santos vs. Mariya Agapova – Level to be Deducted – Sure (+2000)

I used to be robbed by Jason Herzog at UFC Saudi Arabia a couple of weeks in the past when a blatant fence seize from Shara Magomedov didn’t end in a degree deduction. Properly, I’m again to the nicely this week with one other fighter who I feel is primed to do one thing foolish. Agapova has had a variety of distractions in her UFC profession and she or he’s in determined want of a win. That, plus the funky scenes we’ve seen in ladies’s MMA this 12 months (headbutts, boob punches, and many others.) and I feel this can be a enjoyable dart to throw on Saturday.

UFC Denver Ballot Time

Which of the sooner props and parlays do you just like the look of essentially the most?

Received one thing higher than these? Properly, don’t be stingy. Hit us with them within the feedback.

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Keep in mind that MMAmania.com will ship LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow protection of the complete UFC Denver battle card proper right here, beginning with the ESPN/ESPN+ “Prelims” matches, that are scheduled to start at 7 p.m. ET, then the remaining most important card stability on ESPN (simulcast on ESPN+) at 10 p.m. ET.

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