UFC Vegas 100: Finest betting props, parlays and picks | Magny vs. Prates

UFC Vegas 100 takes place this weekend (Sat., Nov., 9, 2024) contained in the acquainted UFC APEX facility in Las Vegas, NV. The principle occasion sees veteran Welterweight Neil Magny check out rising challenger Carlos Prates.

The co-main occasion has purported to function former Bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt in opposition to Miles Johns. Nevertheless, Garbrandt needed to again out because of harm. The co-main is now former ONE Mild Heavyweight champion Reinier de Ridder debuting reverse robust vet Gerald Meerschaert.

The “Prelims” had been because of be headlined by a rematch with Elizeu Zaleski and Nicolas Dalby throwing down. Nevertheless, Dalby is out of that combat and newcomer Zach Scroggin has taken his place. The rest of the Prelims options most Contender Sequence alums, a few of whom are making their UFC correct debuts.

Let’s checkout the cash strains on “Magny vs. Prates” and all the opposite bouts on the cardboard …

UFC Vegas 100 Principal Card Cash Line Odds

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Neil Magny (+475) vs. Carlos Prates (-800)

I don’t be ok with this…

Neil Magny has made a profession out of being a recreation opponent who isn’t afraid to face scary opposition and, for probably the most half, weathering the storm they bring about his method. Nevertheless, at 37 and coming off a primary spherical TKO loss, I hate this match-up for him. This feels much less like a gatekeeper project and extra like a sacrificial lamb.

Carlos Prates is 4-0 in UFC now, with 4 straight spotlight reel stoppages.

He clocked Mitch Ramirez with a straight left (see it right here).

He used the identical punch to KO Trevin Giles (see it right here).

He then folded Charles Radtke with a brutal knee (see it right here).

After which he grew to become the primary man to complete Li Jingliang on the toes (see that right here).

In his final combat Magny was hit was 39 of the 45 important strikes Michael Morales threw at him over the 4 and a half minutes their combat lasted for (see the TKO right here). That’s an 86% success price. Morales’ profession important hanging accuracy was 46% after they fought.

Prates has 57% profession accuracy on important strikes.

It feels very probably that Prates goes to have the ability to hit Magny along with his finest stuff. And when he does, I don’t assume Magny will final any longer than he did in opposition to Morales.

Magny’s finest protection in opposition to these sorts of strikers is his grinding, clinch strain recreation. But when he employs that in opposition to Prates, that gained’t assist. Prates is a Muay Thai specialist and his clinch recreation is nasty. I can see Magny hoping for respite in opposition to the fence, solely to get a crushing knee to the liver or a thudding elbow throughout his temple.

I’m not alone on this pondering. The oddsmakers have Magny as a giant underdog, which is turning into widespread for them. He was +600 in opposition to Morales, +300 in his comeback win over Mike Malott and +380 in opposition to Ian Machado Garry.

Prates to win by KO/TKO is simply -400.

I believe there’s an opportunity that is over within the first spherical and that’s the place we’re going to search out some worth on this combat.

Prates by KO/TKO is spherical 1 is +180. Should you assume it takes him till spherical two to complete the job, you may get that at +350.

A extra conservative wager could be Prates to win and below 1.5 rounds, which you may get at -105. You may as well get Prates to win in rounds 1 or 2 at -175.

Finally, although, I’m fairly assured Prates goes to complete this rapidly. So I’ll go that route and get plus odds.

Finest wager: Carlos Prates to win by KO/TKO/DQ in spherical 1 (+180)

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Gerald Meerschaert (+240) vs. Reinier de Ridder (-400)

Gerald Meerschaert pulled off a little bit of an upset final trip, withstanding a very good spherical from Edmen Shahbazyan earlier than storming again and getting the membership and sub win (see it right here). He was +250 in that match-up, wherein many had him as a really stay canine.

That’s not the primary underdog win for Meerschaert. He guillotined Bruno Silva as a +240 canine in 2022 (see it right here) and rear bare choked Makhmud Muradov as a +440 underdog a 12 months earlier (see it right here).

Reinier de Ridder is a giant favourite right here regardless of him being untested in opposition to UFC expertise. His work In ONE is notable, although. He wasn’t beating whole cans over there when he was Mild Heavyweight champion. His two wins over Aung La N Sang are most likely his finest victories there.

He’s left ONE on the again of brutal losses to Anatoly Malykhin, one at Mild Heavyweight (because of a superbly authorized knee to a grounded opponent) and one at Heavyweight. ONE pushed him out of his pure weight there with a purpose to make huge matches with a really restricted expertise pool.

Most lately De Ridder beat up Magomedmurad Khasaev on a UAE Warriors card, combating at 205 lbs.

I’m a bit stunned to see De Ridder minimize all the way down to Middleweight for his UFC debut. The final time he fought that small was in 2018. If he could make the minimize, he can be huge reverse Meerschaert.

The burden class, together with him being previous his prime, has me pumping the brakes on what De Ridder may do right here. He’s a harmful grappler, however Meerschaert has proved he’s not too shabby himself in that division.

I’m not assured sufficient in De Ridder as a giant favourite to journey with him right here. I believe he would possibly win, however I don’t understand how convincing will probably be. Due to that I’m taking a look at bets that don’t depend on a selected winner.

Precise technique of victory – Submission is the place I’m going to go, believing in each guys’ talents to faucet somebody out and their probability to concentrate on submissions on this combat. This wager covers me if De Ridder is available in and is as spectacular because the bookies assume he can be. And it additionally covers me if Meerschaert pulls off one other a type of underdog submission wins.

Finest wager: Precise technique of victory – Submission (-105)

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Ricky Turcios (+265) vs. Benardo Sopaj (-350)

Ricky Turcios misplaced to Raul Rosas Jr. final trip (see it right here). That was a wild combat with loads of animosity on both facet. It dropped Turcios to 2-2 since he gained the 2021 season of The Final Fighter. His two wins, over Brady Hiestand and Kevin Natividad, had been break up selections.

Benardo Sopaj misplaced his promotional debut in March, being felled by a late flying knee from Vinicius Oliveira (see it right here). Sopaj was capable of out wrestle Oliveira in that bout earlier than being worn out by that KO of the Yr candidate. He got here into that combat on brief discover. And Oliveira has since proven he’s no fluke, beating Ricky Simon in his final combat.

In what little we’ve seen of him, Sopaj has confirmed us he has takedowns in his arsenal. And we all know Turcios struggles to defend in opposition to these (45% protection). We additionally know Turcios doesn’t have the hanging wanted to dissuade somebody from capturing in on him (37% accuracy on important strikes).

I’m pleased with the favourite on this combat and I anticipate a fairly boring affair with a lot of takedowns and low output floor management.

Finest wager: Benardo Sopaj to win by resolution (-105)

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Luana Pinheiro (+240) vs. Gillian Robertson (-300)

Gillian Robertson has regarded excellent these days. She put an uncomfortable beating on Michelle Waterson-Gomez within the Karate Hottie’s retirement combat (see it right here). Earlier than that she completed Polyana Viana by TKO (see it right here).

Luana Pinheiro has the doubtful distinction of being the primary and solely girl to get submitted by Angela Hill. That occurred in Could (see it right here). Previous to that loss she was KO’d by a spinning wheel kick from Amanda Ribas (see it right here). And earlier than that she was on the improper facet of a break up resolution to Waterson-Gomez.

MMA math shouldn’t at all times be trusted, however you’d anticipate Robertson to have the ability to faucet anybody Hill can submit.

Robertson can be going to have a good dimension benefit over Pinheiro. She ought to be capable of use that to put on on Pinheiro and tire her out earlier than locking up a submission.

Finest wager: Gillian Robertson to win by submission (+110)

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Mansur Abdul-Malik (-370) vs. Dusko Todorovic (+275)

Mansur Abdul-Malik gained on Contender Sequence in August, getting a TKO because of floor and pound in opposition to Wes Schultz. That made him 6-0 as knowledgeable.

Dusko Todorovic was as soon as an attention-grabbing prospect. He got here via Contender Sequence in 2019 after which dominated Dequan Townsend in his correct debut.

Since then, although, he’s gone 2-4. Each his wins are in opposition to guys now not in UFC. His losses embrace a TKO in opposition to Punahele Soriano (see it right here) and a KO in opposition to Chidi Njokuani (see it right here).

We final noticed him in March, 2023, the place a knee harm price him his combat with Christian Leroy Duncan.

I believe he’s being served up on a platter to the UFC’s shiny new toy right here. Abdul-Malik has a 5 inch attain benefit over Todorovic and he posses the form of athleticism that has triggered him a lot of hassle up to now.

I’m anticipating him to run via Todorovic on this match. The one odds on DraftKings are for the moneyline and the over/below 1.5 rounds. The below is -160 and that’s the place I’m going to go. If Todorovic hadn’t been on the sidelines for a 12 months and a half I would really like his possibilities to final a bit longer.

Finest wager: Below 1.5 rounds (-160)

UFC Vegas 100 ‘Prelims’ Below Card Odds

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Karolina Kowalkiewicz (+340) vs. Denise Gomes (-475)

Karolina Kowalkiewicz felt a bit like she was simply going via the motions throughout her lopsided resolution loss to Iasmin Lucindo down in Rio in Could. That loss snapped a 4 combat successful streak for the previous title challenger.

Denise Gomes received previous Eduarda Moura by way of break up resolution final trip. That moved her to 3-2 in UFC.

We’re more likely to see a kickboxing match between these two. Kowalkiewicz is basically sound, however she’s not a particular striker. And in her final bout she regarded like she had misplaced a step.

I believe she is going to battle with Gomes’ exercise and be on the top of one other resolution right here. Most worth out there on Gomes is for those who go along with the purpose unfold (it’s nonetheless not a lot). That’s a bit dangerous, given how intently scored numerous girls’s fights are. Nevertheless, I do assume Kowalkiewicz, at 39, is beginning to actually decline. Gomes could be very able to getting by her with 30-27s throughout the board.

Finest wager: Denise Gomes -3.5 (-190)

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Elizeu Zaleski vs. Zach Scroggin

Zach Scroggin is a late alternative for Nicolas Dalby. Right now of writing there are not any odds out there for the match-up.

Scroggin is 7-0 and coming off the Midwest regional circuit. Zaleski is coming off a unanimous resolution loss to Randy Brown and a draw to Rinat Fakhretdinov.

Finest wager: Abstain

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Matthew Semelsberger (+140) vs. Charles Radtke (-170)

Charles Radtke was dropped by a Carlos Prates knee in his final combat. That got here after back-to-back wins to begin his UFC profession. He beat Mike Mathetha by resolution in his debut after which KO’d Gilbert Urbina (see it right here).

Matthew Semelsberger is 5-5 in UFC now, because of a call loss to Preston Parsons in his final combat. Previous to that he was stopped by Uros Medic (see that right here).

The massive query on this bout is whether or not Semelsberger will be capable of stand as much as Radtke’s energy. Semelsberger absorbs 4.21 important strikes per minute, which is greater than what he lands (3.78). That’s by no means a very good signal.

Radtke lands with energy, however he’s additionally pretty correct (52%).

Semelsberger might attempt to wrestle his option to victory. He has a 57% takedown accuracy. Radtke is but to be taken down in UFC, however he’s additionally comparatively untested as a defensive wrestler.

I’m very torn on whether or not or to not fade Semelsberger’s hanging protection or Radtke’s takedown protection. There’s not many possibilities to take underdogs on this card, so I’ll go along with Semelsberger with hopes he can get the takedown and frustrate Radtke on the mat.

Finest wager: Matthew Semelsberger moneyline (+140)

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Cody Stamann (+225) vs. Da’Mon Blackshear (-290)

Each these guys really want a win.

Taylor Lapilus fought circles round Cody Stamann for a simple win in June. Earlier than that he was decisioned by Douglas Silva de Andrade. At 34 Stamann is now not capable of produce his fast, bothersome wrestling recreation to nice impact.

Da’Mon Blackshear was KO’d by Montel Jackson in July (see it right here). That was the primary time he had been stopped by strikes. Previous to that he misplaced a call to Mario Bautista. It seems like a longtime faraway from his tornado over Jose Johnson simply final 12 months (see it right here).

Blackshear has a ton of dimension on Stamann. He’s 4 inches taller and has an ridiculous eight inch attain benefit. We simply noticed what dimension benefit can do for a grappler with Cody Gibson vs. Chad Anheliger. If this will get to the bottom we may see one thing related.

Stamann would possibly attempt to preserve this standing to keep away from such a state of affairs. However he merely doesn’t have the ability in his arms to win a combat like that (only one stoppage in UFC, in opposition to a 38-year-old Eddie Wineland in 2022).

I simply don’t see a lot of a route for him to win this one.

Finest wager: Da’Mon Blackshear moneyline (-265)

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Melissa Mullins (-235) vs. Klaudia Sygula (+190)

Melissa Mullins was picked aside and stopped by Nora Cornolle in her final combat. That got here after she took a call over Irina Alekseeva in her debut. She missed weight for the Cornolle combat.

Klaudia Sygula is making her debut right here, coming in on brief discover for Montserrat Rendon. She’s received a 6-1 document for fights on the decrease tiers of the European scene.

With so little data out there, I’m inclined to facet with the lady who has been right here earlier than (albeit with out spectacular outcomes).

Finest wager: Melissa Mullins moneyline (-235)

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Gaston Bolanos (+165) vs. Cortavious Romious (-195)

Cortavious Romious is one other latest Contender Sequence grad. He gained his look on the present by way of unanimous resolution in August. He additionally has the good, and well timed, nickname of “Are you not entertained?” I hope he’s good in order that we are able to hear Bruce Buffer belt that out sooner or later.

Gaston Bolanos is a very long time Bellator veteran. He’s 1-1 in UFC having overwhelmed Aaron Phillips by unanimous resolution in his debut. After which he misplaced to Marcus McGhee by TKO in January.

Romious looks like an attention-grabbing prospect and Bolanos is but to indicate us he actually belongs in UFC.

Finest wager: Cortavious Romious moneyline (-225)

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Tresean Gore (-185) vs. Antonio Trocoli (+155)

Tresean Gore remains to be with UFC. He’s returning right here after two years on the sidelines. His final combat was a guillotine over Josh Fremd, which earned him a POTN bonus (see it right here). That was his first win in UFC and adopted losses to Cody Brundage, Bryan Battle and an harm hit run on TUF.

Antonio Trocoli has had a bizarre begin to his UFC tenure. He’s had suspensions, cancellations and late alternative duties since first signing for the promotion in 2022. He lastly fought his debut in June, being stopped by a late left hook from Shara Magomedov (see it right here).

That is one other combat with a giant dimension distinction. Trocoli is big for Middleweight, standing 6’ 5” (5 inches taller than Gore) and possessing an 80 inch attain (5 inches longer than Gore).

Jury’s out on whether or not Trocoli is aware of what to do with all that dimension. The bookies probably consider Gore will be capable of take down this huge goal and work his option to a call win. I’m pondering the identical factor.

Finest wager: Tresean Gore moneyline (-185)

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UFC Vegas 100 Lengthy Pictures

Right here’s a few issues that look attention-grabbing (on DraftKings) for this Saturday’s UFC Vegas 100 card …

Neil Magny vs. Carlos Prates – Battle to Finish within the Final 10 Seconds of Any Spherical – Sure (+3000)

I’ve been pumping up Carlos Prates loads on this submit, however I do consider he’s able to making numerous noise on this resolution and — as an older prospect — he doesn’t have numerous time to do it in. Neil Magny is being put in a nasty state of affairs right here and I believe it’s going to finish violently for him. I like this wager as a result of Prates is affected person and Magny is hard. Prates doesn’t rush, even when he has somebody harm. He stalks and retains in search of one of the best shot to place somebody down. I believe he rocks Magny early after which late within the first.

Gerald Meerschaert to win by Submission in Spherical 2 (+1400)

Gerald Meerschaert has proven us that he can by no means be completely counted out of a combat. And with so many query marks about Reinier de Ridder coming in to UFC previous his prime and under his normal weight class, why can’t Meerschaert trigger an upset (once more) by submission (once more).

Three wager parlay: Carlos Prates to win by KO/TKO/DQ, Gillian Robertson to win by submission and Benardo Sopaj to win by resolution (+412)

I’ve already mentioned Prates, however I matched him with two different outcomes I’m fairly excessive on. Gillian Robertson has been on a gradual development upwards in her profession these days and he or she’s not been given a stage of opponent to mirror that. Pinheiro’s submission protection is topic and Robertson’s submission offense is nice — you do the maths. There’s numerous unknowns about Benardo Sopaj, however Ricky Turcios’ deficiencies are fairly apparent at this level. Sopaj ought to be capable of take him down and maintain him there for some time.

Obtained one thing higher than these? Nicely, don’t be stingy. Hit us with them within the feedback.

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Keep in mind that MMAmania.com will ship LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow protection of the complete UFC Vegas 100 combat card proper right here, beginning with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches on-line, that are scheduled to start at 4 p.m. ET, earlier than the principle card begin time at 8 p.m. ET (additionally on ESPN+).

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