UFC Vegas 95 takes place this weekend (Sat., Aug. 10, 2024) from contained in the acquainted UFC APEX facility. After a strong non pay-per-view (PPV) card final week designed to please Abu Dhabi’s cash males, we’re being served what is likely to be one of many worst UFC combat playing cards in historical past.

The primary occasion is a Heavyweight slop fest between Marcin Tybura vs. Serghei Spivac. To paraphrase Ben Fowlkes, this isn’t actually a foremost occasion, it’s simply the combat that goes on final. It’s additionally a rematch of a combat that occurred in 2020.

Nobody cared about it then … they usually gained’t care about it now.

The cardboard has been whittled right down to 10 fights. Sadly one of many casualties — Javid Basharat vs. Chris Gutierrez — was the very best combat on the cardboard (particulars right here). Gutierrez will get to remain on the cardboard, although. He will get promotional newcomer, Quang Le. The primary card additionally has Damon Jackson vs. Chepe Mariscal, Danny Barlow vs. Nikolay Veretennikov, Yara Santos vs. Chelsea Chandler and Toshiomi Kazama vs. Charalampos Grigoriou.

The “Prelims” are headlined by Karol Rosa vs. Pannie Kianzad. This part of the cardboard additionally has GLORY veteran and knockout artist, Jhonata Diniz, taking up Karl Williams in his second UFC look.

Let’s checkout the cash strains on “Tybura vs. Spivac” and all the opposite bouts on the cardboard …

UFC Vegas 95 Important Card Cash Line Odds

Marcin Tybura (+120) vs. Serghei Spivac (-142)

Marcin Tybura was the victor when these two first met (on the undercard of UFC Norfolk in 2020). Spivac landed from vary early, however couldn’t cease Tybura taking or dragging him down. Tybura was additionally capable of land laborious offense in confined areas, both in opposition to the fence or once they have been on the canvas.

Tybura is 7-2 since then. His solely losses are to Alexander Volkov (by way of unanimous determination) and present interim Heavyweight champion, Tom Aspinall, by way of technical knockout. Final trip he choked out Tai Tuivasa (see it right here).

Spivac is 6-2 because the combat. He misplaced to Aspinall by way of technical knockout, too (see his loss right here). His different loss was to Ciryl Gane (additionally by technical knockout — see it right here). His finest win over that run is a primary spherical submission of Derrick Lewis.

Tybura and Spivac have been two of the higher Heavyweights within the promotion over the previous 4 years and the combat is sensible from a rankings perspective (Tybura is No. 8 and Spivac is No. 9). Nonetheless, contemplating their first combat wasn’t very shut, there should be higher choices to check the place every man is of their careers at present. Why couldn’t Tybura tackle Jailton Almeida and Spivac have Jairzinho Rozenstruik?

In any case, Spivac is the slight favourite right here, regardless of being taken down and pounded all through the primary combat. That is likely to be as a result of he has youth on his aspect, which could now outweigh Tybura’s expertise (he’ll flip 39 in November).

Statistically, Spivac has Tybura effectively beat within the grappling stats (4.56 takedowns per 15 minutes vs. 1.43 and 64 % takedown accuracy vs. 33 %). Nonetheless, Spivac was 0-1 in takedowns versus Tybura (who has a superb 79 % takedown protection) of their first combat. The one different fighters Spivac has struck out on in relation to takedowns are Aspinall and Gane. He’s been capable of take down the remainder of his opponents at-will (he was 6-8 on takedowns in opposition to Lewis, who has a 58 % takedown protection).

If Spivac can’t take down Tybura, he’ll should out-strike him and keep on his ft himself. He was in a position to do that in opposition to Aleksei Oleinik, somebody he didn’t need to spend time on the bottom in opposition to. He earned a unanimous determination off him in 2021, touchdown 112 of 181 strikes, largely from distance.

Tybura has first rate hanging protection, too, although (55 % in comparison with Oleinik’s 44 %).

I believe this combat will look the identical as the primary one. Tybura is a decade older, sure, however he hasn’t seemed that outdated in latest performances. And he ought to nonetheless have the intelligence and warning that enables him to gradual fights down and drive them to be fought on his phrases.

I’m fading the general public right here. Tybura opened at -102, however that’s been pushed to plus odds because of the motion on Spivac.

Prediction: Marcin Tybua by way of unanimous determination

Photograph by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Photographs

Damon Jackson (+180) vs. Chepe Marsical (-245)

Chepe Mariscal is ideal (3-0) in UFC because of a unanimous determination over Trevor Peek (as a short-notice alternative), a verbal tapout over Jack Jenkins (see that right here) and a cut up determination over much-hyped Cage Warriors prospect, Morgan Charriere.

Damon Jackson has been up-and-down in his UFC profession, however that’s because of being matched in opposition to extraordinarily powerful opposition. In his first UFC stint again in 2014, he was choked out by Yancy Medeiros, had a “No Contest” versus Rony Jason after which drew with Levan Makashvili. After that run he grew to become a champion in Legacy Preventing Alliance (LFA) and was recalled to the large present in 2020.

Since rejoining UFC, he’s undefeated in opposition to guys not named Ilia Topuria, Dan Ige and Billy Quarantillo. The perfect of his six wins over that run have been in opposition to Alexander Hernandez (in April) and Mirsad Bektic (again in 2020).

Jackson is the underdog right here, however that gained’t faze him — he’s gained as a canine in opposition to Hernandez, Bektic and Pat Sabatini. In the meantime, Mariscal’s -245 are the shortest odds he’s seen in his UFC profession. He has been the underdog in his previous two fights and was close to even in his UFC debut.

I believe it is a actually laborious combat to select. On paper, Mariscal’s bought the higher hanging and wrestling. Nonetheless, Jackson has managed to make a profession out of competing with, and beating, guys who we expect ought to be higher than him.

Jackson is likely one of the longest fighters Marsical has seen in UFC, so Jackson could possibly discover some success at vary. Whether or not Jackson is disciplined sufficient to maintain the combat there’s a massive query, although. Jackson might be very reckless in his fights, feeling assured that his submissions can bail him out of hassle.

Mariscal’s by no means been submitted in his profession, however he has been stopped with punches a couple of occasions. He’s slightly wild, similar to Jackson, and has paid the value for protecting his arms low. I’m not assured in him sufficient to take him at -245 odds. And I believe Jackson has worth because the underdog.

Decide: Damon Jackson by way of TKO, spherical three

Photograph by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Photographs

Danny Barlow (-340) vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (+270)

Danny Barlow is a Contender Sequence product. He gained his audition with a primary spherical technical knockout and has since gained his correct Octagon debut, too. In February, he completed Josh Quinlan late (see it right here) to enhance his undefeated report (8-0).

Nikolay Veretennikov is coming in on quick discover for Uros Medic. He’s making his UFC debut at 34, having misplaced his Contender Sequence look (to Michael Morales) in 2021. The perfect win on his report might be a primary spherical technical knockout over Anthony Ivy in Fury FC.

Barlow is the large favourite right here. And I agree with the oddsmakers on this one. Veretennikov is a shock bundle, however Barlow seemed very sharp in flattening Quinlan 4 occasions earlier than getting the eventual stoppage. He’ll have a five-inch attain benefit on this combat and I believe he’ll simply be an excessive amount of on the ft for the veteran newcomer.

Decide: Danny Barlow by way of TKO, spherical two

Photograph by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Photographs

Chris Gutierrez vs. Quang Le

No odds have been launched for this bout at time of writing.

Chris Gutierrez will probably be an enormous favourite in opposition to the debuting Quang Le. Gutierrez misplaced to Music Yadong final trip, however he ought to be capable to navigate himself previous the LFA product. Le is 8-0. He was gearing up for a Contender Sequence combat earlier than being given the Gutierrez bout.

Decide: Chris Gutierrez by way of determination

Photograph by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Photographs

Yana Santos (-135) vs. Chelsea Chandler (+114)

Issues simply haven’t occurred for Yana Santos since she came visiting to UFC from Invicta (the place she was a Bantamweight champion). She’s on a three-fight dropping streak with choices dropped to Karol Rosa and Holly Holm and a technical knockout loss to Irene Aldana.

Santos has additionally been stopped by Aspen Ladd and Cris Cyborg (watch it right here).

Chelsea Chandler can be an Invicta alum. She stopped Julija Stoliarenko in her UFC debut and dropped a unanimous determination to Norma Dumont. Final trip, she took a unanimous determination over Josiane Nunes.

Chandler fights with much more impression and depth than Santos. Santos lands a number of strikes, however they’re hardly ever highly effective sufficient to alter the course of a combat (even when stacked collectively).

My choose is Chandler right here as a result of I believe — whereas each women will land the identical quantity of strikes — hers will give Santos extra issues. And I believe Chandler ought to be capable to rating a few takedowns, like she did within the Nunes combat.

Prediction: Chelsea Chandler by way of unanimous determination

Photograph by Todd Lussier/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Photographs

Toshiomi Kazama (+180) vs. Charalampos Grigoriou (-218)

Toshiomi Kazama has had a tough time since signing for the UFC off of Highway to UFC. He misplaced to Rinya Nakamura in his debut by way of knockout due to a straight left (see it right here) after which he misplaced to Garrett Armfield by way of knockout as a result of a straight proper (see it right here). These losses carry Kazama’s sturdiness into query.

Charalampos Grigoriou scored a primary spherical technical knockout on Contender Sequence. He misplaced his correct UFC debut to Chad Anheliger by way of unanimous determination.

Grigoriou will likely be giving up a few inches in attain right here, however that shouldn’t be sufficient to dissuade him from leaving his mark in each the hanging and wrestling departments. The Serra-Longo product ought to be too sturdy and athletic for Kazama and I believe he’ll most likely get an early stoppage on the bottom.

Decide: Charalampos Girogoriou by way of technical knockout, spherical one

Photograph by George Tewkesbury/PA Photographs by way of Getty Photographs

UFC Vegas 95 ‘Prelims’ Underneath Card Odds

Karol Rosa (-185) vs. Pannie Kianzad (+154)

Pannie Kianzad suffers from an absence of dynamism when she fights. She’s usually fairly plodding and infrequently surprises her opponent with creativity or ferocity. She’s as powerful as ever, although. Her toughness and sturdiness have allowed her to outlast opponents and intestine out choices in opposition to fighters who’ve been on the decline within the latest years (Lina Lansberg, Alexis Davis, Sijara Eubanks, Bethe Correia). Nonetheless, in opposition to extra athletic opponents, who’ve extra profession forward of them than she does, she falters — as we noticed in opposition to Ketlen Vieira and Macy Chiasson.

Karol Rosa doesn’t have the upside of Vieira or Chiasson. And she or he has a few of those self same names on her record of wins. Each Rosa and Kianzad are recognized for his or her quantity. Nonetheless, Rosa’s output a degree past Kianzad’s.

Her 6.34 important strikes per minute leads the Bantamweight division (as does her hanging differential). Kianzad is fourth with 4.86. Rosa has additionally landed the third most vital strikes of all lively Ladies’s Bantamweights. Her 757 strikes has her behind Irena Aldana (959) and Raquel Pennington (1056). Kianzad is fifth with 602.

Rosa’s offense is extra balanced than Kianzad’s. Kianzad could be very a lot a head hunter, whereas Rosa will work the physique and legs extra. If these two are going to field it out for fifteen minutes then I’ll choose the extra various striker right here. Neither lady has the ability to place the opposite one down, so it will come right down to who lands probably the most and that will likely be Rosa.

Decide: Karol Rosa by way of unanimous determination

Jhonata Diniz (+180) vs. Karl Williams (-218)

Jhonata Diniz is a GLORY export who took a little bit of time earlier than touchdown a crushing left hook to beat Austen Lane in his UFC debut (see it right here). Previous to that Diniz had gained by first spherical knockout on Contender Sequence. These wins have seen him get to undefeated (7-0) in MMA with all his bouts ending by way of technical knockout and solely Lane making it out of the primary spherical with him.

Karl Williams is 10-1 and he’s been a choice machine in his profession, because of his smothering wrestling recreation. He’s gained his first three UFC fights (in opposition to Justin Tafa, Chase Sherman and Lukasz Brzeski) by way of unanimous determination.

Williams is the very best wrestler Diniz has ever confronted and if he can’t end this factor early he might get laid on for the lion’s share of quarter-hour.

Lane went 1-4 on takedowns versus Diniz. When he managed to get Diniz down he was capable of maintain him down, banking 4 and half minutes of management time in a combat that lasted simply over seven minutes. Lane’s takedown accuracy is a woeful 20 %. Williams’ takedown accuracy is 50 % and he will get 4.75 takedowns per quarter-hour.

Williams is an attention-grabbing character. He had an opportunity to qualify for the Olympics in 2012 as a sprinter. He pivoted to wrestling to chase the Olympic dream, however discovered MMA as an alternative.

Diniz has ungodly energy, however I don’t assume Williams goes to allow us to see that. Diniz seemed nice within the end over Lane however was fairly sluggish main as much as that. Williams is like somebody he’s by no means confronted earlier than and I believe this will likely be one other feared striker who will get uncovered for an absence of wrestling (see Robelis Despaigne).

Decide: Karl Williams by way of unanimous determination

Youssef Zalal (-395) vs. Jarno Errens (+310)

Youssef Zalal is likely one of the greatest favourite on the cardboard. He opened as a -258 favourite and that has shortened by greater than 12 %. For PPV occasions, I analyze line actions and when this occurs, it often means a win for the fighter concerned.

The general public most likely assume it is a mismatch having simply seen Zalal submit Billy Quarantillo (see it right here). That UFC win got here two years after his earlier Octagon appearances, a draw over Da’Mon Blackshear. He had gone 3-3 in UFC previous to that, dropping a cut up determination to Sean Woodson and a unanimous determination to Ilia Topuria.

Jarno Errens bought his first UFC win in March, taking a unanimous determination over Steven Nguyen. Previous to that he misplaced choices to Seung Woo Choi and William Gomis.

Errens is the extra lively striker, however his horrible takedown protection (28 %) will probably be the story of this combat. Zalal’s takedowns seemed a lot improved in opposition to Quarantillo. He was 2-2 on takedowns in that combat, which is spectacular given Quarantillo’s 61 % takedown protection.

Decide: Youssef Zalal by way of unanimous determination

Stephanie Luciano (-170) vs. Talita Alencar (+142)

These two fought to a draw on Contender Sequence. Stephanie Luciano is the favourite right here and that’s most likely due to her extra eye catching combat model. Talita Alencar is extra composed and affected person, however she’s additionally 9 years older than Luciano. My choose is the youthful fighter, who additionally has a seven inch attain benefit.

Decide: Stephanie Luciano by way of unanimous determination

Photograph by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Photographs

UFC Vegas 95 Prop Bets & Parlays

Right here’s a few issues that look attention-grabbing (on DraftKings) for this Saturday’s UFC Vegas 95 card …

Two-pick parlay: Karol Rosa to defeat Pannie Kianzad and Danny Barlow to defeat Nikolay Veretennikov (+233)

I believe Rosa and Kianzad will give us a boxing match and there’s nothing Kianzad does that may cease Rosa peppering away along with her division main workrate. Rosa, the youthful and extra athletic fighter, ought to be capable to rating a reasonably simple determination right here in opposition to somebody who will simply stand in entrance of her for quarter-hour. Danny Barlow is my favourite favourite on the cardboard. He has a brilliant attain benefit over the quick discover Veretennikov. Veretennikov is 34 and but to make a splash wherever past small regional reveals.

Karl Williams vs. Jhonata Diniz – Over 2.5 rounds (-120)

Diniz’s win over Austen Lane hasn’t bought me satisfied that he’s the subsequent Alex Pereira. He’s been given a brilliant powerful project right here within the type of Williams. Williams is wise and can know the right way to get by this combat unscathed. He’s going to place Diniz on his again early and drag him by three rounds for a protected victory.

Damon Jackson to defeat Chepe Mariscal by KO/TKO/DQ (+1100)

I’ve been slightly protected with the earlier bets, so let’s swing for the fences right here. Each Jackson and Mariscal might be very reckless within the cage and begin swinging blindly with their chins within the air. Mariscal has had his lights turned out by Joanderson Brito and Steve Garcia, Jackson isn’t of their class, however he’s been recognized to shock us earlier than. For these odds, I’ll fortunately take an opportunity on him.

UFC Vegas 95 Ballot Time

Which of the sooner props and parlays do you just like the look of probably the most?

Bought one thing higher than these? Effectively, don’t be stingy. Hit us with them within the feedback.

Do not forget that MMAmania.com will ship LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow protection of your complete UFC Vegas 95 combat card proper right here, beginning with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches, that are scheduled to start at 5 p.m. ET, then the remaining foremost card stability (additionally ESPN+) at 7 p.m. ET.

To take a look at the most recent and biggest UFC Vegas 95: “Tybura vs. Spivac 2” information and notes make sure to hit up our complete occasion archive proper right here.