UFC Vegas 96: Finest betting props, parlays and picks | Cannonier vs. Borralho

UFC Vegas 96 takes place this weekend (Sat., Aug. 24, 2024) inside UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. The principle occasion has two Middleweights hoping to problem defending champion Dricus du Plessis (who dispatched his first challenger final Saturday). Jared Cannonier has fought for the belt earlier than (and misplaced), whereas Caio Borralho has by no means headlined; nevertheless, the Brazilian phenom has been storming up the rankings currently. The winner of their struggle most likely gained’t get the following crack at DDP (that appears reserved for one Sean Strickland), however they could possibly be in line for a No. 1 contender bout (versus the winner of Robert Whittaker vs. Khamzat Chimaev … if that really occurs).

Our co-main occasion is veteran ladies’s Strawweight, Angela Hill. She is going to compete in her twenty fifth UFC contest this weekend. Her opponent is the full of life Tabatha Ricci. UFC Vegas 96’s fundamental card additionally performs host to the present crop of The Final Fighter (TUF) finalists, with Ryan Loder combating Robert Valentin and Kaan Ofli assembly Mairon Santos. The principle card additionally has final gatekeeper, Neil Magny, versus the undefeated Michael Morales.

The “Prelims” are headlined by Zach Reese vs. Jose Medina. The undercard additionally has Viacheslav Borschev vs. James Llontop and Jacqueline Cavalcanti vs. Josiane Nunes, amongst different bouts.

Let’s checkout the moneylines on “Cannonier vs. Borralho” and all the opposite bouts on the cardboard …

UFC Vegas 96 Primary Card Cash Line Odds

Jared Cannonier (+190) vs. Caio Borralho (-235)

Borralho did a very good job of shedding his boring tag final trip. Certainly, the vanguard of the Combating Nerds put away Paul Craig with a second spherical technical knockout at UFC 301. That win took his report to 16-1 (6-0 in UFC) and opened the door for this step up in competitors.

Cannonier, in the meantime, misplaced to Nassourdine Imavov two months in the past in the primary occasion of UFC Louisville. That struggle ended through fourth spherical technical knockout. Nevertheless, referee Jason Herzog was just a little early when he waved off the struggle (see that right here). Cannonier was damage, however appeared to have regrouped when the struggle was known as off. Cannonier probably feels additional aggrieved as a result of he was profitable the struggle (albeit very carefully up till that second). The loss had Cannonier drop again to No. 5 within the Middleweight rankings. He’ll drop far additional ought to he lose to Borralho (who’s ranked No. 12).

Borralho is a reasonably respectable favourite right here. The critique on Cannonier stays that he’s 40-years-old. That’s a part of the explanation he was an underdog to Imavov, too. Nevertheless, he seemed simply as match and potent as Imavov did in the course of the struggle. So, I’m not able to rely out Cannonier based mostly on age alone.

My choose is Borralho, although, and that’s due to his exercise with takedowns. Borralho lands slightly below two takedowns per quarter-hour at a 76 p.c accuracy. Cannonier’s protection is 61 p.c; nevertheless, Cannonier’s protection is healthier than that 61 p.c suggests. The final takedown artist he confronted was Jack Hermansson and he held him to one in all six takedown makes an attempt. I believe Borralho’s higher at each securing takedowns and retaining management of opponents on the bottom than Hermansson is.

I additionally suppose Borralho might be extraordinarily motivated to take down Cannonier. Borralho is not any scrub on the toes (as proved by his detonation of Craig), but when he stands with Cannonier he’s probably going to be on the receiving finish of numerous punches and grinding motion in opposition to the cage.

Borralho has proven that he doesn’t care about getting booed or disappointing his bosses with a boring win, so I believe he’ll air on the aspect of warning in his fundamental occasion debut and look to blanket Cannonier for an clever victory.

Cannonier will wish to preserve the struggle standing, however I believe his aggression will get the higher of him and he gained’t be capable of cease himself foraying forwards. When he does that, Borralho could have the openings he must take this struggle to the bottom.

Prediction: Caio Borralho through unanimous choice

Photograph by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC through Getty Pictures

Angela Hill (-110) vs. Tabatha Ricci (-110)

Borralho wasn’t the one fighter who confirmed us one thing totally different final trip. At UFC Vegas 92, Hill tapped Luana Pinheiro with a mounted guillotine (see it right here) for her first profession submission win. That win was a welcome sight to us who thought we had Hill found out as only a kickboxer who may be very used to going to the judges’ scorecards.

That submission win shouldn’t overshadow what else Hill was doing within the Pinheiro struggle, although. Her placing seemed on level and she or he really had her opponent damage, thus forcing her right into a desperation takedown.

Ricci, in the meantime, comes into the struggle off of a break up choice win over Tecia Pennington at UFC St. Louis. That was an extremely shut struggle with Ricci grinding out the win due to her 5 minutes of management time. She earned that management time regardless of going 1 of 10 on takedown makes an attempt. She was outstruck 80-54 in important strikes, too. I scored the struggle for Pennington, but it surely wasn’t a theft — only a very shut struggle.

Earlier than that, Ricci misplaced one other very shut struggle, to Crazy Godinez. In that struggle Ricci whiffed on six takedown makes an attempt and was once more out-struck, however solely by 12 important strikes this time.

I believe Ricci goes to wrestle in opposition to Hill right here. Hill has higher takedown protection than Pennington and is a extra technical and various striker. The variety in her placing has actually come alongside currently, as she’s focused her opponent’s our bodies. Ricci may be very a lot a head hunter, however I don’t suppose she’s a menace to knock many individuals out. I a lot choose Hill’s probabilities of hurting her to the physique and utilizing that to construct a case for the judges.

Hill could have a 3 inch attain benefit on this struggle, too. That, and her close to 50 p.c accuracy, has me considering she’s going to search out numerous pleasure on the toes this Saturday.

Prediction: Angela Hill through unanimous choice

Photograph by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC through Getty Pictures

Ryan Loder (+155) vs. Robert Valentin (-185)

TUF simply isn’t what it was. Our Middleweight finalists right here have a mixed age of 62 and neither has any extra upside than what we’ve seen in TUF home. Robert Valentin is a hard-hitting finisher (in opposition to fellow castmates and dudes on the Swiss regional scene) and Ryan Loder is an All-American wrestler who isn’t significantly athletic or dynamic. The oddsmakers suppose Valentin will be capable of damage Loder earlier than he could be dragged down and held on the mat. I assume I’ll go together with that, too. Valentin additionally has twice as {many professional} fights as Loder.

Prediction: Robert Valentin through technical knockout, spherical one

Photograph by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC through Getty Pictures

Kaan Ofli (+165) vs. Mairon Santos (-200)

Mairon Santos is a uncooked 24-year-old who may develop past what we’ve seen to date. Kaan Ofli is the completed article at 31-years-old. Ofli appears the higher all spherical fighter at this level of time and is able to making use of plenty of stress to Santos and probably ending him. Santos has some pink flags on his report (missed weight, canceled bouts, visa points) so he is likely to be value fading till we’ve seen him actually present up in UFC.

Prediction: Kaan Ofli through technical knockout, spherical two

Photograph by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC through Getty Pictures

Neil Magny (+600) vs. Michael Morales (-1000)

Wow … Vegas bookies will not be followers of Magny right here, however that’s nothing new. The 37-year-old might be making his thirty third stroll to the Octagon on Saturday. And he’ll accomplish that with the longest odds of his profession. He was +370 when he fought Shavkat Rakhmonov, +400 versus Gilbert Burns and +380 versus Ian Machado Garry. Magny is coming off a technical knockout win over Mike Mallott as a +300 underdog (see it right here).

The undefeated Michael Morales (16-0) hasn’t competed since Nov. 2023, taking a unanimous choice over Jake Matthews. Previous to that, he decisioned Max Griffin and TKO’d Adam Fugitt (see it right here).

Magny is the dictionary definition of gatekeeper at this level of his profession. And, at Welterweight, whether or not you win or lose in opposition to him is a reasonably good indicator of how nicely you’re profession goes to go within the Octagon.

The 25-year-old Morales is an athletic specimen with a excessive ceiling for each his placing and wrestling sport. He seemed very spectacular in his win over Matthews (who can also be regressing to the position of gatekeeper).

If Morales picks up from the place he left off, he’ll be the busier striker on this struggle. However, Magny may be very powerful, and doesn’t get completed, and he’s not often blown away by quantity strikers. I believe Morales will out land Magny on the toes, however I don’t suppose he’s going to do this sufficient to essentially damage the veteran.

I do suppose Morales will discover success with takedowns, although. Magny has struggled to remain on his toes all through his profession. His protection on the bottom is fairly good, although, together with his submission losses coming to elite grapplers solely.

I believe it is a nearer struggle than these odds recommend and I believe you’re mad in the event you’re taking Morales at -1000. I don’t see how one can be completely assured that Magny gained’t Magny him for quarter-hour, particularly with Morales coming off a close to year-long lay-off.

My choose is Morales, as a result of I believe he’ll combine his martial arts properly and earn a choice. However I wouldn’t guess on that as a result of I, not like Vegas, respect what Magny can do to prospects who’re extremely favored to beat him.

Prediction: Michael Morales through unanimous choice

Photograph by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC through Getty Pictures

Edmen Shahbazyan (-310) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (+245)

Shahbazyan was not prepared for primetime again in 2020. A 3rd spherical technical knockout loss to Derek Brunson (after an intensive beatdown — see it right here) gave him the primary defeat of his younger profession. That was adopted by a choice loss to Jack Hermansson and a brutal crucifix loss to Imavov (see that right here). After having the competitors degree ratcheted down a degree, he’s gone 2-1, beating Dalcha Lungiambula and AJ Dobson through technical knockout and dropping to Anthony Hernandez through technical knockout (see that right here).

Meerschaert, in the meantime, has had his fair proportion of brutal losses, too. He was scorched by Joe Pyfer final 12 months (see it right here) and was KO’d by Khamzat Chimaev again in 2020 (see that right here). Final trip he submitted Bryan Barberena (see it right here).

That is an fascinating match-up in that Shahbazyan has been recognized to fade down the stretch and Meerschaert has been recognized to begin chilly and get caught early on. This may imply that Shahbazyan goes all out for an early end. If he fails to get it … it could possibly be bother for him.

I believe Shahbazyan will be capable of deal with Meerschaert early. He’s ten 12 months’s youthful and I like his possibilities in opposition to Meerschaert’s porous takedown protection (34%). Shahbazyan has an ideal likelihood of taking Meerschaert down within the first spherical after which hurting him with floor and pound.

Prediction: Edmen Shahbazyan through technical knockout, spherical one

UFC Vegas 96 ‘Prelims’ Below Card Odds

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Zach Reese (-650) vs. Jose Medina (+425)

Reese has had a little bit of an odd begin to his UFC profession. The 30-year-old debuted in Contender Sequence in August, 2023 after which acquired his name as much as the massive present a number of months later. His correct debut didn’t go very nicely. It ended with a slam induced TKO by the hands of Cody Brundage (see it right here). Reese was a -225 favourite for that struggle.

At UFC Louisville he blew away Julian Marquez with an uppercut in 20-seconds (see it right here). He was a slight underdog for that struggle.

Towards Medina, Reese finds himself as the massive favourite. The Marquez win is definitely affecting the percentages right here. Nevertheless, how a lot inventory ought to we actually put in that provided that Marquez has seemed like a man who must be retired in his previous few bouts. Reese has an thrilling report on paper, seven wins all through stoppage. Nevertheless, he takes a good bit of injury in his bouts and he’s not precisely a younger prospect. I really feel like that is one other heavy favourite on this card that deserves a purchaser beware label.

All we’ve seen of Jose Medina is a unanimous choice loss to Magomed Gadzhiyasulov on the Contender Sequence. Gadzhiyasulov appears a reasonably respectable prospect given his gutsy win over Brendson Ribeiro on the UFC Saudi Arabia card.

Reese is a really massive Middleweight at 6’ 4”. He’ll have a 3 inch attain benefit over the 6’ Medina. The choose must be Reese as a result of he’s been extra examined on the UFC degree and proven a capability to complete fights on the toes, in high management and off his again. I’m cautious of such an enormous line in opposition to somebody who remains to be so uncooked, although.

Prediction: Zachary Reese through submission, spherical two

Photograph by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC through Getty Pictures

Viacheslav Borshchev (-235) vs. James Llontop (+190)

It was not a very good exhibiting from Borshchev final trip at UFC St. Louis. The Russian striker was damage and outstruck by the grappler Chase Hooper (who gave the efficiency of his life that night time — see it right here). That dropped his UFC report to a reasonably poor 2-3-1.

Llontop can also be searching for redemption.

He was shocked by Chris Padilla at UFC Vegas 91, dropping through first spherical submission as a -450 favourite. He had these odds regardless of having only a unanimous choice win on Contender Sequence to his identify.

These guys are battling for his or her UFC lives on this struggle. And each have a shot of popping out on high. They’re each strikers and neither appears apt at having the ability to expose the opposite’s poor takedown and grappling protection. If that is going to be a boxing match I’m taking an opportunity with Llontop. He has the identical physique sort as Hooper and a four-inch attain benefit. Borschev is brutally efficient when in shut, however Hooper was in a position to damage him at vary and preserve him on the skin. Possibly Llontop can do the identical.

Prediction: James Llontop through technical knockout, spherical two

Photograph by JULIEN DE ROSA/AFP through Getty Pictures

Jacqueline Cavalcanti (-200) vs. Josiane Nunes (+170)

Neither of those ladies have achieved a lot in UFC thus far. Jacqueline Cavalcanti is 1-0 with a choice win over Zarah Fairn. Josiane Nunes is 2-1 with choice wins over Zarah Fairn and Ramona Pascual. Her loss is a choice to Chelsea Chandler. Fairn and Pascual aren’t within the UFC both and Chandler is on discover after her stinker in opposition to Yana Santos. I’m not anticipating a ton to occur on this struggle, however Cavalcanti is by far the extra thrilling and athletic possibility right here. She’s additionally a lot greater than Nunes (4 inch peak and three inch attain benefit). That is going to be a boxing/staring match, however Cavalcanti goes to be the one touchdown extra punches and leg kicks on path to a choice win.

Prediction: Jacqueline Cavalcanti through unanimous choice

Photograph by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC through Getty Pictures

Cong Wang (-1150) vs. Victoria Leonardo (+650)

One other huge mismatch … in the event you imagine the oddsmakers.

Victoria Leonardo stays in UFC regardless of going 1-3. To be honest, she’s confronted some very powerful opponents. Manon Fiorot knocked her out standing, Melissa Gatto broke her arm and Natalia Silva acquired her with a depraved head kick. Leonardo’s lone win within the promotion is a choice over Mandy Bohm.

Wang, in the meantime, is popping out of the Highway to UFC pipeline. She scored a primary spherical submission there to take her report to 5-0. The largest speaking level on Cong is that she has a kickboxing win over Valentina Shevchenko.

If Cong has only one inch of expertise, that must be sufficient to finish the battle-worn Leonardo’s night time right here and doubtless her run in UFC.

Prediction: Cong Wang through technical knockout, spherical one

Photograph by Michelle Farsi/Getty Pictures

Dennis Buzukja (+125) vs. Francis Marshall (-150)

Francis Marshall is coming in on quick discover to face Dennis Buzukja. Buzukja was initially booked to struggle Danny Silva. I believe Buzukja has the placing edge and I like his takedown protection (72 p.c). Marshall hasn’t fought in a 12 months and that is on every week’s discover. I actually don’t like that combo.

Prediction: Dennis Buzukja through unanimous choice

Photograph by Alexandre Loureiro/Zuffa LLC through Getty Pictures

UFC Vegas 96 Prop Bets, Parlays

Right here’s a few issues that look fascinating (on DraftKings) for this Saturday’s UFC Vegas 96 card …

Two-pick parlay: Caio Borralho to beat Jared Cannonier and Angela Hill to beat Tabatha Ricci (+173)

There aren’t many nice betting choices on this card. Many of those bouts have huge favorites and lots of of these favorites are unproven on the so-called UFC degree. That makes me wish to keep away from plenty of these bouts. The 2 fighters I really feel most assured in are Borralho and Hill, so I’ll parlay them collectively to get some plus cash. Borralho’s on the rise and I believe he’s in a position to take Cannonier down and management him there. Hill is about to hit 40, however she nonetheless appears to be in nice form and she or he’s made a profession out of out-pointing fighters like Ricci.

Robert Valentin to win by Any Knockout, Submission or DQ (+130)

Robert Valentin looks as if a reasonably enjoyable cat (you’ve heard his Swiss Alps shroom story, proper?). And there’s little question he can crack. He’s a finisher, or not less than he has been in opposition to the extent of competitors he’s confronted to date in his profession. Of his 13 fights he’s solely gone to a choice twice (as soon as in a loss and as soon as in a win). I don’t suppose Ryan Loder is a step up in competitors for Valentin, so I’m anticipating him to get a end right here tonight — by both TKO or submission (60 p.c of his wins have come that manner).

Caio Borralho to win by submission in spherical 4 (+2500)

Right here’s my dart for the weekend. Loads of this struggle goes to happen on the bottom and I believe Caio Borralho goes to be the one controlling the motion there. Jared Cannonier has by no means been submitted, however he’s at an age now the place issues that haven’t occurred earlier than may simply begin popping up. Borralho is a wiz on the bottom, however he’s solely completed 25% of his fights through submission — he’s extra of a place over submission man. Sure, there’s lots working in opposition to this guess, however these odds are an excessive amount of enjoyable to show down (particularly if I’m simply going to place a few bucks on it).

Photograph by: Joe Sohm/Visions of America/Common Pictures Group through Getty Pictures

UFC Vegas 96 Ballot Time

Which of the sooner props and parlays do you just like the look of probably the most?

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Do not forget that MMAmania.com will ship LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow protection of your complete UFC Vegas 96 struggle card proper right here, beginning with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches on-line, that are scheduled to start at 7 p.m. ET, earlier than the primary card begin time at 10 p.m. ET (additionally on ESPN/ESPN+).

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