It’s early within the 2024-25 NHL season. Very early. However even then, there are a couple of groups off to regarding begins. The Nashville Predators spent a bajillion {dollars} in free company and are 0-5-0. In the meantime, the Colorado Avalanche are 2-4-0, although they’ve gained two video games in a row.
There have been excessive expectations in Buffalo, however the Sabres have gotten off to a sluggish begin, and the identical is true for the Detroit Crimson Wings. No one ought to full-blown panic after 5 – 6 video games, but it surely’s honest to have some issues.
The query is, how involved must you be?
Colorado Avalanche
It’s not just like the Avalanche have an ideal workforce. Whereas they nonetheless have loads of high-end expertise, they’ve a top-heavy roster and a few points in internet. The truth is, their goaltending appears like their most important concern to start the season, and it’s not significantly shut.
Alexandar Georgiev has given up 9.9 targets above anticipated by 5 video games. For context’s sake, Arvid Soderblom gave up 18.2 targets above anticipated final season, the worst mark within the NHL. Georgiev is on tempo to surpass that comfortably, however the constructive spin right here is that you need to suppose he’ll degree off in some unspecified time in the future.
Associated: NHL 2024-25 Energy Rankings: Week 2
Georgiev will not be the most effective goalie on this planet, however he’s not an .811 save share unhealthy goaltender. That quantity is nearly assured to tick up in some unspecified time in the future, as his targets saved above anticipated quantity. In any other case, the Avalanche’s five-on-five numbers look wonderful by six video games; their 57.34 anticipated targets share (xG%) ranks third within the NHL to the Carolina Hurricanes and Edmonton Oilers. They’ll get it collectively, particularly if Justus Annunen or Kaapo Kähkönen can present a spark as a 1B to Georgiev.
Concern degree: 2.5/10
Buffalo Sabres
There’s strain in Buffalo to at the very least compete for a playoff spot this season. Lindy Ruff is again for his second stint because the Sabres’ head coach, however to this point, the Sabres don’t like a workforce able to compete for a playoff spot within the Atlantic, the place the identical contenders yr in and yr out nonetheless appear like contenders.
The Sabres’ five-on-five numbers aren’t terrible, nor are they nice. Their 49.2 xG% ranks seventeenth within the NHL, and for probably the most half, they appear like a Lindy Ruff-coached workforce. They’re producing high quality offense at an honest clip (2.57 xGs/60) however are giving most of it again (2.63 xGs towards per 60). In fact, it’s nonetheless small-sample-size season, however these elevate the priority ranges for what this workforce may very well be shifting ahead.
It additionally doesn’t assist the Sabres aren’t getting saves. Devon Levi has allowed 3.3 targets above anticipated, a bottom-10 quantity league-wide. His improvement hasn’t gone as hoped to this point, however he’s nonetheless a younger goalie. I wouldn’t be involved about him but.
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has been positive, giving up 0.9 targets above anticipated. He’s usually saving what’s anticipated of him, however with how the Sabres are taking part in defensively to start out the season, he’ll have to be higher than common if Levi doesn’t flip it round. My largest issues with the Sabres are on protection and in internet. And so they is perhaps long-term points to cope with, too.
Concern degree: 6/10
Nashville Predators
The Predators had maybe the splashiest offseason of any workforce within the NHL, but it surely additionally wasn’t the offseason that many thought it was. That’s at the very least proving to be the case to start 2024-25, because the Predators are 0-5-0 and have a aim differential of minus-13.
In contrast to the Avalanche, the Predators’ five-on-five numbers counsel they could have some issues. Their 46.4 xG% ranks twenty fourth within the NHL, they usually’re having a troublesome time producing high quality appears at five-on-five, averaging simply 2.18 anticipated targets per 60 minutes. Their high free-agent acquisitions this summer time — Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault — have simply two targets mixed.
Stamkos, particularly, has struggled, with only one aim and no assists in 5 video games. His five-on-five manufacturing had been declining for a few years in Tampa — there’s a cause Lightning normal supervisor Julien Brisebois opted to exchange him with Jake Guentzel. So, his poor begin will not be a mirage.
It additionally doesn’t assist that the Predators acquired older and slower this offseason. Stamkos and Marchessault are 34 and exhibiting indicators of slowing down, particularly Stamkos. The Predators roster has a mean age of 28.96, the third oldest within the NHL. Solely the Oilers and Pittsburgh Penguins have older rosters.
There are respectable causes to be involved in Nashville due to how outdated their roster is but additionally as a result of in the event that they find yourself beginning 0-7-0, 1-7-1, or no matter, their season may very well be over earlier than it even actually begins.
Concern degree: 8/10
Edmonton Oilers
So we’re doing this once more, huh? The Oilers acquired off to an inauspicious 2-9-1 begin in 2023-24 earlier than rallying for 50 wins and coming one victory shy of claiming the Stanley Cup. They’re 2-4-0 to start this season, however I’m not involved that it will spiral uncontrolled because it did in 2023-24.
The Oilers’ 58.3 xG% is second to the Hurricanes, they usually’re defending fairly effectively, permitting 2.18 xGs per 60 minutes. They’re additionally producing loads of offense, averaging 3.82 xGs per 60 minutes. I’m undecided how sustainable that latter quantity is, however there are the makings of one other wonderful workforce.
Just like the Avalanche, the Oilers’ largest concern is in internet. Stuart Skinner has given up 5 targets above anticipated, the second most to Georgiev. If that kinds itself out, the Oilers needs to be positive. Skinner doesn’t have to be spectacular for the Oilers to get to the place they have to be through the common season. So long as he’s common, which he’s proven he could be through the common season, the Oilers will win loads of video games.
Concern degree: 2.5/10
Detroit Crimson Wings
The Detroit Crimson Wings are 2-3-0, however there are already some purple flags of their sport. Their 43.96 xG% ranks twenty ninth within the NHL, they usually’re bleeding high quality probabilities, permitting 3.00 anticipated targets per 60 minutes. The priority is that these underlying numbers look similar to final season.
I do know the Crimson Wings got here a degree away from qualifying for the playoffs, however they rode some unsustainable percentages to get there, particularly with their taking pictures share. Taking pictures percentages are growing throughout the league, so greater taking pictures percentages have gotten extra sustainable. Nonetheless, you have to have the appropriate course of, and the Crimson Wings’ course of already appears problematic.
The Crimson Wings have some respectable top-six expertise with Lucas Raymond, Dylan Larkin, Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat, however I see an extremely flawed roster, particularly on protection and in internet. Head coach Derek Lalonde might fall on the sword if issues go south, however Steve Yzerman’s seat needs to be getting heat if it isn’t already. Issues may worsen rapidly based mostly on how the Crimson Wings’ five-on-five numbers already look.
Concern degree: 8/10
There isn’t a lot cause to be involved for the Avalanche and Oilers, but it surely’s a distinct story for the Predators, Sabres, and Crimson Wings. The Predators, particularly, is perhaps in bother in the event that they don’t string some wins collectively this week. It may very well be getting late early in some NHL markets like Nashville, Buffalo, and maybe Detroit if issues proceed to go south.
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Superior stats from Pure Stat Trick, MoneyPuck
