2025 ZiPS Projections: Atlanta Braves

For the twenty first consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For extra data on the ZiPS projections, please seek the advice of this yr’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The group order is chosen by lot, and the subsequent group up is the Atlanta Braves.

Batters

This previous yr was a little bit of a trainwreck for the Braves, however an uncommon one, in that with a lot going incorrect, they nonetheless gained 89 video games and made the playoffs, if by the pores and skin of their enamel. The lineup nonetheless appears to be like basically just like the one that everybody favored going into the season, only one that’s a bit riskier with an additional yr of age and an prolonged current historical past of serious accidents. The depth chart graphic beneath is a bit too beneficiant for my style with a few of the taking part in time for the injured gamers, with Austin Riley, Michael Harris II, and Ozzie Albies all with present projections above 650 plate appearances and Ronald Acuña Jr. just under 600. Nevertheless, even with being a bit extra conservative about well being, Atlanta ought to have a whole lot of harmful weapons. In different phrases, even when expectations ought to be tempered barely, there’s nothing basically damaged about this offense.

ZiPS shares Steamer’s optimism in relation to Harris. I used to be a bit stunned by the projection too – and stunned to see Steamer additionally very excessive on him – but it surely’s simple to overlook that Harris solely turns 24 in March, so there’s nonetheless a sensible chance that he improves, maybe considerably, and projections do must account for that. Apparently sufficient, each projection programs suppose there’s some energy upside remaining from him, too.

Truthfully, there’s not a lot in the best way of precise surprises within the offensive projections. The one vital loss is Sean Murphy’s catching sidekick, Travis d’Arnaud, however this is without doubt one of the locations the place the Braves might afford to let somebody stroll. Drake Baldwin and Chadwick Tromp might sound like 80s films antagonists who head up the wealthy youngsters’ summer season camp throughout the lake, however they’re greater than appropriate caddies for Murphy. Baldwin specifically didn’t come out of nowhere, both; he was the no. 30 prospect in baseball in our up to date 2024 prospect rankings.

Nacho Alvarez Jr. already tasks as a viable substitute for Orlando Arcia when the time comes (most likely after 2025), however the projections aren’t bullish on the farm when you get previous Baldwin and Alvarez. Atlanta could be good to be energetic within the non-roster invitee sweepstakes this winter.

Pitchers

Subtracting Max Fried is a reasonably large deal, so including a pitcher – maybe Fried himself – ought to be the group’s high precedence. Chris Sale returned to kind in a giant approach in 2024, successful the NL Cy Younger award and main all pitchers with 6.4 WAR, however one can’t be too assured in his well being; he turns 36 on the finish of March, and the 177 2/3 innings he pitched this yr have been simply his most in a season since 2017. Reynaldo López as a full-time starter went higher than anybody might have moderately anticipated, however he’s most likely going to offer again a few of that ERA in 2025. With Strider getting back from inside brace surgical procedure someday early in 2025 and Schwellenbach getting a surprisingly spectacular projection, the Braves ought to be happy that Spencers will make up two of the highest 4 of their rotation. I’m simply not excited, particularly given the damage issues within the rotation, about not having an alternative choice higher than Griffin Canning or Ian Anderson for the final slot. From a prospect standpoint, ZiPS doesn’t see a complete lot of upside within the minors past AJ Smith-Shawver.

The issues that confronted Atlanta elsewhere this season principally spared the bullpen, which completed the season ranked third in WAR and second in FIP within the majors. It’s nonetheless a unit that’s in fairly good condition, with 5 of its six relievers used within the highest leverage conditions already underneath contract for 2025. (A.J. Minter is the free agent.) However free agent departures have thinned out the underside half of the ’pen significantly, and Joe Jiménez will miss most, if not all, of the 2025 season, so the Braves are most likely going to must do greater than stand pat right here. That mentioned, as a result of they’re in search of depth, they don’t essentially must fish within the deep finish of the free agent pool.

So, the place are the Braves now? They should enter the season with among the best win projections in baseball, someplace within the mid-90s. A wholesome Strider and Acuña alone would have been greater than sufficient to get the comparatively disappointing 2024 squad to that stage. This can be a high franchise, however there’s slightly extra threat this time round.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by the use of these listed right here. Measurement of participant names could be very roughly proportional to Depth Chart taking part in time.

Gamers are listed with their most up-to-date groups wherever potential. This contains gamers who’re unsigned or have retired, gamers who will miss 2025 as a consequence of damage, and gamers who have been launched in 2024. So sure, should you see Joe Schmoe, who give up baseball again in August to kind a Norwegian Ukulele Dixieland Jazz band that solely covers songs by The Smiths, he’s nonetheless listed right here deliberately. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.11.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values may differ barely from those who seem within the full launch of ZiPS. Lastly, I’ll advise anybody in opposition to — and may karate chop anybody responsible of — merely including up WAR totals on a depth chart to supply projected group WAR.

As all the time, incorrect projections are both attributable to misinformation, a non-pragmatic actuality, or by the skillful sabotage of our buddy and former editor. You’ll be able to, nevertheless, nonetheless get mad at me on Twitter or on Bluesky.