By J. Keeler Johnson (“Keelerman”) Twitter: @J_Keelerman
Completely happy Thanksgiving!
A pleasant week of racing
is underway. There are graded stakes to get pleasure from on Thursday, Friday, Saturday,
and Sunday, together with the Kentucky Jockey Membership (G2), a outstanding Street to the
Kentucky Derby qualifier.
After analyzing the entries for
all kinds of races, listed here are 4 horses who I imagine are extremely more likely to
go to the winner’s circle this week:
Kentucky Jockey Membership (G2) at Churchill Downs
Whereas there are exceptions,
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) alumni usually carry out nicely when wheeling again a couple of weeks
later for the 1 1/16-mile Kentucky Jockey Membership (G2) at Churchill Downs.
In 2022, Curly Jack (fifth
within the Juvenile) improved to second place within the Kentucky Jockey Membership. In 2020,
Juvenile third-place finisher Keepmeinmind delivered victory within the Kentucky
Jockey Membership. And in 2018, Signalman parlayed a 3rd within the Juvenile into first
prize within the Kentucky Jockey Membership.
That is why I am keen to
wager #2 Jonathan’s Method (5-2) can
shine within the Kentucky Jockey Membership. He opened his profession with back-to-back wins,
rallying after a troubled begin to dominate a six-furlong maiden particular weight
earlier than wiring the one-mile Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs in decisive
style.
Jonathan’s Method subsequently
faltered at a brief worth within the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, ending seventh. However
the Juvenile was a quick race, and even in defeat Jonathan’s Method earned a
respectable 87 Beyer Pace Determine and a pointy 99 Brisnet Pace score.
Jonathan’s Method has turned in
fast exercises because the Juvenile (together with a bullet 5 furlongs in :58 4/5)
and has each probability to rebound whereas dropping in school and returning to
Churchill Downs for the Kentucky Jockey Membership.
FTBOA Florida Sire My Pricey Lady S. at Gulfstream Park
A race restricted to Florida
Sire Stakes-registered juvenile fillies is not the most typical place to look
for future Kentucky Oaks (G1) contenders, however the favourite to win this yr’s 1
1/16-mile FTBOA Florida Sire My Pricey Lady S. could certainly be Kentucky
Oaks-caliber.
#1 Stunner (3-5)
has executed little flawed in three begins in opposition to non-state-restricted competitors.
She completed second in her debut sprinting at Saratoga, a quick contest received by
the thrilling filly Senza Parole. Stunner subsequently wired an analogous maiden
dash at Saratoga by 6 1/4 lengths.
This preceded a begin within the
one-mile Tempted S. at Aqueduct, wherein Stunner once more led all the way in which to win
by 3 1/2 lengths. She brings sturdy pace figures into the My Pricey Lady and has
the pedigree to shine whereas stretching out round two turns for the primary time,
so for those who’re in search of a single to construct multi-race wagers round, this Brad
Cox-trained filly is a compelling selection.
FTBOA Florida Sire In Actuality S. at Gulfstream Park
Stretching out from seven
furlongs to 1 1/16 miles is the one significant query mark dealing with #1 Rated by Advantage (3-5) within the FTBOA
Florida Sire In Actuality S. However the plentiful expertise he is proven in sprints ought to
permit him to shine even whereas making his two-turn debut.
Rated by Advantage hasn’t been
meaningfully challenged in three begins, all at Gulfstream. He debuted in a
non-state-restricted maiden particular weight and romped by 9 3/4 lengths with a
92 Beyer Pace Determine. The he stepped into the Florida Sire ranks, profitable the
six-furlong Dr. Fager S. by 6 1/4 lengths and the seven-furlong Affirmed S. by
3 3/4 lengths. These wins yielded enhancing Beyers of 93 and 99, with the
latter quantity rating as the best posted by any juvenile to this point this yr.
There’s sufficient stamina in
Rated by Advantage’s pedigree to counsel he can stretch out over 1 1/16 miles, and
a pointy five-furlong exercise in :59 2/5 on Nov. 20 ought to have him prepared for
one other peak efficiency. I am assured he’ll preserve his edge over #8 Neoequos (7-2), runner-up within the Dr.
Fager and Affirmed.
Hollywood Derby (G1) at Del Mar
Though the Hollywood Derby
takes place in California, the 1 1/8-mile turf check is usually received by horses transport
in from the East Coast or Midwest. 5 of the final eight winners prepped
exterior of California, and a sixth winner competed totally on the East Coast
earlier than working in a single prep race at Santa Anita.
That is why I am eager to
assist #4 Carson’s Run (3-1) on this
yr’s Hollywood Derby. The 2023 Summer season (G1) winner has been on a roll as of
late, profitable the Story of the Cat S., Saratoga Derby (G1), and Jockey Membership Derby
(G3) along with ending second within the Nashville Derby (G3).
Carson’s Run has confirmed
efficient over distances from one mile to 1 3/8 miles, so the 1 1/8-mile journey
of the Hollywood Derby ought to swimsuit him simply superb. Even higher, there seems to
be sufficient tempo entered within the Hollywood Derby to arrange Carson’s Run’s typical
homestretch rally. I am optimistic Carson’s Run will swoop previous the sphere to
safe his third Grade 1 win.
Now it is your flip! Who do
you want this week?
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (also referred to as “Keelerman”) is a author, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing fanatic. An excellent fan of racing historical past, he considers Dr. Fager to be the best racehorse ever produced in America, however counts Zenyatta as his all-time favourite.
