With their 7-4 win towards the Florida Panthers on Nov. 23, the Colorado Avalanche performed their twenty first recreation of the 2024-25 season and formally crossed the quarter-mark of the marketing campaign. The group improved its file to 12-9-0 with the win and now sport a factors share (PTS%) of .571, rating Fifteenth within the league on the present juncture.
Since beginning the season with 4 straight losses whereas being outscored 25-13, the Avalanche have gone 12-5-0 in 17 video games with a plus-10 objective differential and presently sit within the Western Convention’s first wildcard spot. The group has stayed afloat amid uneven waters via October and November, so let’s dive into the 5 key takeaways of the spectacular begin to the marketing campaign on the quarter-mark.
Colorado Decimated by an Avalanche of Accidents
No dialogue of the Avalanche’s fortunes this season might be had with out first addressing the elephant within the room. In keeping with NHL Harm Viz, solely the San Jose Sharks and the St. Louis Blues have amassed a better cumulative Cap Hit of Injured Gamers (CHIP) than the Avalanche via the primary month and alter. Whereas Colorado has just lately seen a number of of its prices re-enter the fold, the season-long tally of missed video games handily explains the group’s middling file up to now:
| Participant | Video games Missed |
|---|---|
| Gabriel Landeskog | 21 |
| Valeri Nichushkin | 17 |
| Jonathan Drouin | 16 |
| Artturi Lehkonen | 12 |
| Ross Colton | 11 |
| Miles Wooden | 7 |
Landeskog’s long-term harm restoration is well-documented at this level, and the date of his return is as murky as ever. Nichushkin was just lately reinstated following his six-month suspension for violating the phrases of the NHL/NHLPA Participant Help Program. Drouin, Lehkonen, and Wooden all have returned to the lineup after multi-game absences, whereas Colton is nearing the conclusion of his six-to-eight-week restoration timeline after breaking his foot on the finish of October.
These accidents collectively robbed the Avalanche of nearly their complete top-six ahead group, and most of their top-nine core. Every of Chris Wagner (12 video games performed), Matt Stienburg (eight), T.J. Tynan (seven), Calum Ritchie (seven), and Nikita Prishchepov (six) performed notable roles over the primary two months, a a lot better stage of involvement than anticipated of American Hockey League (AHL) tweeners and NHL rookies previous to the season.
It’s a testomony to the group’s depth that the group has a optimistic file regardless of the harm disaster, but it surely’s a scenario many within the group would have favored to keep away from.
Goaltending Carousel Not Paying Dividends
Past the prolonged harm listing, the Avalanche’s goaltending has been the largest story of the season, for higher or for worse. Alexandar Georgiev (12), Justus Annunen (10), Trent Miner (one), and the now-departed Kaapo Kahkonen (one) have all break up duties within the crease via the primary quarter of the season. As a unit, the quartet collectively boasts a .861 save share (SV%) – the worst team-based mark within the league. Solely Miner owns a SV% better than .900, and he’s solely performed 35 minutes. Complete.
Associated: 3 Avalanche Goalie Commerce Targets to Substitute Georgiev
The present goaltending conundrum is an extension of final season the place Georgiev, regardless of taking part in 63 video games (second within the NHL) and profitable a league-leading 38 video games, owned a .897 SV%. That mark was effectively under common for an NHL starter and ranked 51st amongst certified goalies (minimal 10 video games performed). He’s carrying a .874 SV% (56th amongst goalies with not less than 5 video games performed) and a minus-5.5 targets saved above anticipated (GSAx) in what has been a rocky contract yr for the 28-year-old, along with his Avalanche future doubtful.
Georgiev has performed significantly better because the begin of November with a .915 SV% and a plus-3.8 GSAx, however the inconsistency in his recreation is regarding for a Stanley Cup hopeful. It’s the rationale why rumors about buying and selling for a goalie have swirled across the Avalanche this early within the season, and why the crease is by far the group’s largest weak level.
Avalanche’s Superstars Driving the Bus
Latest analysis means that the presence of star energy is a better issue in playoff success than depth (from ‘Within the NHL playoffs, what’s extra precious: Star energy or depth?’ – Dom Luszczyszyn – The Athletic – 03/22/2023). Luckily for the Avalanche, their resident superstars live as much as the designation.
Reigning Hart Trophy winner Nathan MacKinnon leads the league in assists (28) and factors (35). Norris Trophy hopeful Cale Makar has reached one other stage and paces all defensemen with eight targets, 22 assists, and 30 factors. Two-time 40-goal scorer Mikko Rantanen is tied for third amongst all skaters in targets (14) and factors (32), simply in time for a profitable contract extension. These three carry the second-, Thirtieth-, and Thirty fourth-highest cap hits for the 2024-25 season respectively, and have met or exceeded expectations up to now.
Accidents have kneecapped the Avalanche’s depth within the early going, however Colton (0.9 points-per-game), Casey Mittlestadt (0.86), Drouin (0.8), and Lehkonen (0.78) have all approached point-per-game manufacturing in restricted motion. As soon as the group returns to full energy, the Avalanche juggernaut may roar to life.
Avalanche Dominating Puck Possession at 5-on-5
Regardless of the Avalanche sporting a middling minus-2 objective differential, they’ve been profitable the shot and scoring likelihood battle on most nights. The goaltending woes have been explored and will shoulder the blame for an in any other case sturdy underlying course of at five-on-five.
| Statistic | Avalanche | NHL Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Photographs | 54% | sixth |
| Anticipated Objectives | 53% | fifth |
| Scoring Possibilities | 55.9% | 2nd |
| Excessive-Hazard Possibilities | 51.5% | twelfth |
The Avalanche have constructed their glowing possession numbers upon a basis of defensive excellence. The group ranks sixth or higher by way of photographs (SA), anticipated targets (xGA), and scoring probabilities (SCA) towards per-60 minutes at five-on-five, and that’s been achieved towards the backdrop of the aforementioned harm disaster.
These metrics might be owed to go coach Jared Bednar not asking an excessive amount of of his inexperienced call-ups and taking part in a extra cautious, low-event type till his ahead group returns to full energy. With the lineup wanting higher with every passing recreation, count on a return to a extra high-tempo type, although the group hasn’t precisely sacrificed its offensive philosophies with above-average shot and likelihood technology numbers.
Avalanche Taking part in Disciplined Hockey
For the reason that begin of the Makar period (2019-20 common season), the Avalanche have the perfect web penalty differential (plus-169) within the league, 39 higher than the Winnipeg Jets in second (plus-130). They’ve ranked eighth or higher in every of these six seasons together with this one, and third or higher 4 occasions.
Colorado has continued that pattern and continued to play disciplined hockey by boasting a plus-11 mark this season (third within the NHL), and have made undisciplined groups pay with their red-hot energy play (second at 30.3%).
You Might Additionally Like:
Regardless of having taken the Fifteenth-most penalties over that span, the Avalanche’s optimistic differential is pushed by drawing the fourth-most penalties throughout the identical time, an under-discussed side of group success. That mark might be owed to having Nazem Kadri (fifth in penalties drawn since 2019-20), MacKinnon (ninth), Rantanen (twenty fourth), Miles Wooden (53rd), and Makar (ninety fifth) taking part in a number of seasons in Colorado over that point.
The most effective Avalanche participant by penalty differential over the previous six seasons? MacKinnon at plus-83. The worst? Kurtis MacDermid at minus-32. Given their respective taking part in types and roles on the group, these outcomes aren’t shocking.
Avalanche Positioned to Make Deep Playoff Run
Regardless of all the obstacles that the Avalanche have been met with to begin the season, they presently occupy a playoff spot and are inside hanging distance of one of many Central Division’s three computerized postseason slots. The groups in entrance of them are among the many greatest within the league (Winnipeg Jets, Minnesota Wild, and the Dallas Stars) and are unlikely to cede a lot floor for the remainder of the season.
But, if the Avalanche have stayed in competition regardless of adversity, the remaining three-quarters of the marketing campaign may see the group climb to the highest of the NHL meals chain with a full-strength squad. Reaching the heights of the dominant 2021-22 Stanley Cup-winning group is perhaps tough, however this iteration may not be far behind.
Information courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Pure Stat Trick, and the NHL.
