The Rays have been open to buying and selling from their rotation this yr and will achieve this once more, with right-hander Zach Eflin one of many attainable candidates. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Occasions experiences that the Astros, Braves and Cardinals are “among the many groups anticipated to have sturdy curiosity” within the righty.
The Rays aren’t absolutely within the vendor camp as they’re at the moment 51-51 and simply 4.5 video games again of a playoff spot. Nonetheless, their rotation well being has improved because the season has gone alongside and given them a relative surplus. That has allowed them to discover offers that both deal with one other space of the roster, bolster the prospect depth, avoid wasting cash or some mixture of these targets.
Every of Shane Baz, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen started the season recovering from previous arm surgical procedures. The Rays had a rotation of Eflin, Taj Bradley, Ryan Pepiot, Zack Littell and Aaron Civale for many of this yr. As soon as they had been able to put Baz again into the rotation, they flipped Civale to the Brewers for a prospect and known as up Baz.
An identical commerce may make sense within the coming days. Pepiot is at the moment on the injured record with a knee an infection however isn’t anticipated to be out for too lengthy, whereas the Rays have Springs and Rasmussen each at the moment on rehab assignments. It’s subsequently attainable that they may commerce a pitcher or two and nonetheless undergo the stretch run with a wholesome rotation. They’ve Tyler Alexander and Jacob Lopez round as depth after which Shane McClanahan ought to be again within the combine subsequent yr, after he recovers from his personal elbow surgical procedure.
A lot of the pitchers in Tampa’s rotation combine are controllable for a few years however Eflin and Littell are every slated without spending a dime company after 2025. Eflin is a very wise candidate for the budget-conscious membership on account of his contract. He signed a three-year, $40MM deal with Tampa going into 2023, with that deal being backloaded. He made $11MM final yr and has that wage once more right here in 2024, with a bounce to $18MM subsequent yr.
That’s vaguely paying homage to the extension that the Rays signed with Tyler Glasnow. Whereas he was recovering from Tommy John surgical procedure, Glasnow signed a two-year extension with the Rays which was additionally closely backloaded. He was paid $5.35MM in 2023, his closing arbitration season and a yr through which he was anticipated to return from the surgical procedure. The Rays additionally gained an additional yr of management over him by giving him a $25MM wage for 2024.
He ended up returning in 2023 as anticipated, tossing 120 innings with a 3.53 earned run common. However earlier than the large wage bounce kicked in, he was traded to the Dodgers in a four-player deal that introduced again Pepiot.
With Eflin set for a giant increase subsequent yr and the Rays having loads of different rotation choices, he might be on the transfer shortly and may have loads of suitors. He’s been a stable rotation stalwart for a number of years now, first with the Phillies after which with the Rays since signing his aforementioned deal. Courting again to the beginning of 2018, he has a 4.01 ERA in over 800 innings. His 22.2% strikeout charge in that point is near par however he’s restricted walks to a tiny charge of 4.9%.
Well being has been a problem for Eflin, largely on account of knee issues. He was restricted to simply 181 1/3 innings over 2021 and 2022, his closing two years in Philadelphia, however has managed to remain on the mound extra in Tampa. He logged 177 2/3 innings over 31 begins final yr with a 3.50 ERA. This yr, he’s already as much as 19 begins and 110 innings with a 4.09 ERA. He had temporary stints on the IL each years on account of decrease again points however in any other case saved the practice on the tracks.
That sort of stable efficiency would have loads of attraction and the listed groups every make sense as a touchdown spot. Atlanta misplaced Spencer Strider to UCL surgical procedure and in addition noticed Max Fried head to the injured record just lately, together with depth choices like Huascar Ynoa and Hurston Waldrep.
At present, their rotation consists of Chris Sale, Reynaldo López, Charlie Morton and Spencer Schwellenbach, with varied guys rotating via the again finish. Bolstering that group with an exterior addition or two is lots logical. Fried may maybe be again however there’s danger within the present composition. Sale has a prolonged harm historical past and the membership may wish to hedge in opposition to him getting damage once more, though he’s stayed wholesome this yr. López was simply returned to a beginning position after working as a reliever for just a few years and will maybe run out of fuel later within the yr. Morton’s fuel tank may also be an element simply because he’s now 40 years outdated. Schwellenbach has been performing nicely however has simply 9 profession begins within the majors.
The truth that Eflin is underneath contract for subsequent yr is probably going interesting to Atlanta as nicely. Fried and Morton are each impending free brokers, with the latter a risk to contemplate retiring at season’s finish. Strider will nonetheless be out of motion by the beginning of 2025 so the on-paper rotation for subsequent yr shall be Sale, López and some query marks. Schwellenbach and a number of the different younger guys may step up and fill that in, nevertheless it’s no assure, so including Eflin into the group would make sense.
The aggressive steadiness tax could also be a priority, as Atlanta is at the moment at $273MM, per the calculations of RosterResource. In the event that they cross the third threshold of $277MM, they’d not solely incur the next tax charge however their prime choose in subsequent yr’s draft would even be moved again ten spots. Given the place they’re, they most likely choose to remain south of that line.
Eflin’s CBT hit is at the moment $13.33MM, based mostly on the typical annual worth of his three-year, $40MM deal. Nonetheless, a participant’s CBT hit is recalculated when he’s traded. If a deal comes collectively within the subsequent few days, he would have a couple of third of this yr’s $11MM wage remaining, within the ballpark of $3.67MM. Mixed together with his $18MM wage subsequent yr, that’s $21.67MM over a season and a 3rd, making for a CBT hit of $16.3MM. If Atlanta acquires him for the ultimate two months of the season, they’d put a 3rd of that determine on their CBT calculation for this yr, or $5.43MM.
Assuming the RR calculations are near appropriate, taking over Eflin’s whole contract may be problematic for Atlanta, so they could attempt to get artistic and have Tampa eat a portion of the deal. Subsequent yr’s CBT hit is way decrease, at the moment at $185MM, however they may undoubtedly add to that with some offseason strikes.
The Astros have additionally had their share of rotation challenges this yr, with Cristian Javier and José Urquidy each requiring Tommy John surgical procedure. Luis Garcia has but to return from his personal TJS operation from final yr whereas Lance McCullers Jr. continues to be making an attempt to get again from his personal elbow process. Justin Verlander can also be on the shelf with a neck harm.
Their present rotation consists of Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, Spencer Arrighetti and Jake Bloss. Brown has recovered from an terrible begin to the season however every of Blanco, Arrighetti and Bloss is missing in expertise. Blanco solely just lately moved to the rotation after years of bullpen work whereas Arrighetti and Bloss are rookies who each have ERAs north of 5.60 up to now this yr.
Like Atlanta, Houston is about to pay the CBT this yr however they’ve much more wiggle room. Houston’s CBT quantity is at the moment at $256MM, per RR. That’s simply shy of the $257MM second line however crossing that solely comes with a slight bump in tax charge and no draft choose penalties.
The Cardinals have a stable rotation entrance 4 consisting of Sonny Grey, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson and Miles Mikolas. With Steven Matz injured, they’ve had Andre Pallante holding down the fifth spot currently. Pallante has a good 3.42 ERA in his 9 begins however he has a subpar strikeout charge of 19.8% and a restricted monitor file general.
Including Eflin may bolster that group for this yr and 2025 as nicely. Each Gibson and Lynn are on one-year offers and might be free brokers this winter. They each have membership choices on their offers nevertheless it’s not a assure that the Cardinals would choose both of these up. In contrast to Atlanta and Houston, the CBT just isn’t an enormous concern in St. Louis. RR at the moment has the Playing cards at $215MM, which is $22MM south of the $237MM base threshold.
