The sky is falling in Colorado, however ought to or not it’s? After 27 video games, the Colorado Avalanche personal a report of 14-13-0 and a factors proportion (PTS%) of .519. That places them proper on the periphery of the Western Convention playoff race, an underwhelming place for a group which has entered each season as a Stanley Cup contender for the previous half-decade. The discourse across the group’s future trajectory has been risky, with each faction inside the fanbase staking their flag within the floor as finger-pointing runs rampant.
But, the group’s fortunes haven’t plummeted after an October and November underscored by a comically lengthy damage checklist and subpar goaltending. Since beginning the season with 4 straight losses whereas being outscored 25-13, the Avalanche have gone 14-9-0 within the following 23 video games with a minus-two objective differential and are at the moment two factors again of the Edmonton Oilers within the Western Convention’s second wildcard spot.
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Whereas understandably tough to muster in the meanwhile, maybe higher optimism from all events is warranted given the circumstances. Let’s dive in.
Avalanche Battling By way of Damage Disaster
Solely the San Jose Sharks and the St. Louis Blues have amassed a higher cumulative Cap Hit of Injured Gamers (CHIP) than the Avalanche via the primary two months of the season. A lot of that determine is owed to the long-term absence of captain Gabriel Landeskog whose timeline for a return stays unsure and has shifted a number of occasions since present process main knee surgical procedure through the spring of 2023.
In any other case, Jonathan Drouin (22), Valeri Nichushkin (17; was suspended), Colton (17), and Lehkonen (12) have all missed double-digit video games this season, robbing the Avalanche of half of their common top-nine ahead group. Nichushkin and Lehkonen have each returned to the lineup, however Miles Wooden has since been deemed month-to-month with an upper-body damage and each Drouin and Colton stay out of fee.
Avalanche Goaltending a Clear Weak Spot
Except for the rash of accidents affecting the Avalanche lineup, the state of the group’s goaltending is of essentially the most concern after almost a 3rd of the marketing campaign. Alexandar Georgiev (17 video games performed), Justus Annunen (11), Scott Wedgewood (two), Trent Miner (one), and the since-waived Kaapo Kahkonen (one) have all appeared within the Avalanche crease to blended outcomes.
The quintuplet collectively owns a .857 save proportion (SV%) and has allowed over 14 targets above anticipated (GSAx) in accordance with Evolving Hockey, each of that are the worst team-based marks within the league. It’s the worst goaltending the Avalanche have acquired since Cale Makar joined the group for the 2019 Playoffs, and is a significant motive for his or her precarious place within the standings.
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The commerce which noticed Wedgewood arrive in Colorado in trade for Annunen might present some respite from the Avalanche’s goaltending woes. He hasn’t been an elite performer in current seasons (.907 SV% since 2021-22) however that mark is available in at barely above these belonging to Georgiev and Annunen (each at .903) over the identical time interval, so the state of affairs probably can’t worsen.
The 2 most important points with the deal are that Wedgewood is 32 and has by no means performed greater than 37 video games in a single season (he did so in 2021-22), however the swap must be deemed a large success even when he proves to solely be an efficient one-year stopgap. The opposite half of the tandem has been well-discussed, however anticipate the noise to proceed till the place is addressed with greater than a band-aid resolution.
Avalanche Driving Play at 5-on-5
Let’s flip to the optimistic. Regardless of lacking many key forwards, lots of whom rotate via the top-six at occasions, the Avalanche have remained an elite group at five-on-five in accordance with their share of photographs and scoring possibilities.
| Statistic (%) | Avalanche | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Objectives | 44.8% | twenty fifth |
| Photographs | 53.7% | 4th |
| Anticipated targets | 52.1% | seventh |
| Scoring Probabilities | 55.3% | 2nd |
| Excessive-Hazard Probabilities | 50.9% | 14th |
Although the Avalanche are led by offensive superstars, their outcomes at five-on-five are principally pushed by defensive excellence regardless of what their 102 targets towards (third-worst) may point out. They rank third in photographs towards per-60-minutes (SA/60) and seventh in scoring possibilities towards per-60 (SCA/60), however are across the center of the pack by anticipated targets (xGA/60) and high-danger possibilities (HDCA/60) towards per-60. They rank seventeenth or higher in every of the corresponding offensive classes, and second in scoring possibilities for per-60 (SCF/60).
Some could level to the share of high-danger possibilities and spotlight that as an space in want of enchancment. But, the group sits simply inside the highest half leaguewide and are (shock, shock) receiving the worst high-danger SV% (HDSV%) within the league at five-on-five (.721). It’s lazy to level the finger at goaltending usually however the discrepancy between anticipated targets (seventh) and precise targets (twenty fifth) tells most, if not all, of the story.
Avalanche’s Remaining Schedule Is Manageable
Although the Avalanche are nonetheless slated to play eight of their remaining 55 video games towards Western Convention powers within the Minnesota Wild (4), Winnipeg Jets (three), and the Vegas Golden Knights (one), their remaining schedule isn’t too punishing.
In response to Tankathon’s strength-of-schedule metric, the Avalanche’s rest-of-season schedule sits within the bottom-half by problem (nineteenth). That’s excellent news for the reason that Edmonton Oilers (fifteenth), Calgary Flames (14th), Vancouver Canucks (ninth), and the Los Angeles Kings (seventh) all face above-average slates by opponent win proportion and can jockey with Colorado for one of many two wildcard spots.
Some might even see the season as a misplaced trigger and switch their gaze towards the 2025-26 season, however there are causes to hope that an upturn in luck is across the nook. The group’s ahead group will method full energy sooner or later, and the goaltending shall be addressed in a method or one other. They’ve been the higher group in lots of video games regardless of the circumstances, so a fast turnaround is within the playing cards.
Information courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Pure Stat Trick, and the NHL.
