In line with a report from Shi Davidi of Sportsnet, the Blue Jays are thought to have gotten their 2024 participant payroll beneath the primary aggressive steadiness tax threshold of $237MM. Nevertheless, that won’t be confirmed till later this offseason when the commissioner’s workplace calculates every workforce’s ultimate payroll and formally broadcasts which golf equipment must pay luxurious tax penalties for the 2024 season.
The Blue Jays got here into the season with a luxurious tax payroll roughly $11MM above the primary threshold, however they shaved some cash off the books by buying and selling a number of gamers forward of the deadline. It’s additionally price maintaining in thoughts that publicly out there payroll estimates are precisely that – estimates.
In line with the estimates at RosterResource, 10 groups (together with the Blue Jays) are in line to pay the luxurious tax this January. The Mets, Dodgers, Yankees, Braves, Phillies, Astros, Giants, and Rangers are sure to be penalized, whereas the Blue Jays and Cubs are shut sufficient that they might probably slip below the $237MM threshold within the ultimate calculations. RosterResource has Toronto’s ultimate 2024 luxurious tax payroll at $240.4MM and Chicago’s at $238.4MM. Whereas neither the Blue Jays nor the Cubs must pay a very excessive penalty for his or her modest overages (in the event that they do in actual fact go over), the Blue Jays, specifically, may gain advantage from resetting their penalties. They paid the luxurious tax for the primary time in franchise historical past final season. Luxurious tax penalties enhance when a workforce goes over the primary threshold for a second consecutive season and enhance once more when a workforce goes over for a 3rd consecutive season. Except the Blue Jays are confidently planning to lower payroll this winter, it might make a giant distinction if they might reset their penalties this 12 months. In spite of everything, a 30% tax on just a few million {dollars} in overages wouldn’t be that massive of a deal for Toronto, however the potential for a 50% tax (the penalty for a third-time offender) subsequent 12 months and past might considerably hamper offseason spending.
What’s extra, if the Blue Jays get below the luxurious tax threshold, they’d solely lose their second-highest draft choose (and never their second and fifth-highest picks) in the event that they signal a free agent who acquired the qualifying provide this winter. Equally, they’d solely lose $500K of worldwide bonus pool cash reasonably than $1MM. Perennial high-spenders, just like the World Collection champion Dodgers, perceive that it’s price shedding just a few draft picks and a few worldwide bonus pool cash as a way to signal the perfect main league gamers and discipline probably the most aggressive main league workforce. Nevertheless, one can perceive why the Blue Jays, who completed 74-88 in 2024 and would seemingly solely be just a few million over the luxurious tax threshold (in the event that they went over in any respect), would like to not be so harshly penalized.
There isn’t a cause to consider the Blue Jays are coming into a rebuilding or retooling section after their disappointing 2024 season. As a substitute, it appears extra seemingly they may attempt to contend as soon as once more of their ultimate season of workforce management over Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. As they try to take action, it might actually assist in the event that they don’t should be fairly so involved about signing a QO free agent or bringing subsequent 12 months’s payroll above the primary luxurious tax threshold ($241MM in 2025). Davidi notes that workforce president Mark Shapiro doesn’t see the workforce’s payroll “both rising or lowering in a giant approach,” however that also leaves for the workforce to signal not less than one QO free agent and presumably eclipse the primary tier of the CBT. RosterResource estimates that Toronto’s luxurious tax payroll for 2025 is at present $211.2MM, roughly $29.2MM decrease than this previous 12 months’s estimated whole.