The Blue Jays have an interest free agent outfielder Anthony Santander, experiences Bob Nightengale of USA Right now. Nightengale additionally mentions that the membership is pursuing high pitchers like Corbin Burnes and Max Fried. The membership has beforehand been linked to high free agent starters corresponding to Fried and Blake Snell in current weeks, so Burnes being on the checklist as nicely is aligned with these pursuits.
The reference to Santander is a smart one. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco predicted the Jays to signal Santander when our Prime 50 Free Brokers checklist got here out earlier this month. The Jays are a smart match for an outfielder and a potent bat, two containers that may be checked by Santander.
Proper now, the Jays have George Springer and Daulton Varsho as the 2 established massive leaguers of their outfield. Varsho underwent shoulder surgical procedure in September and it’s potential that he’ll miss the opening of the 2025 season. Springer is now 35 years outdated and has seen his wRC+ decline for 5 straight years now. He had a 155 wRC+ in 2019 however that quantity has gone to 143, 140, 133, 104 and 95 in recent times.
Along with these two, the Jays have loads of different theoretical choices to take taking part in time on the turf. Nathan Lukes, Joey Loperfido, Jonatan Clase, Davis Schneider, Addison Barger and Steward Berroa are all outfield choices on the 40-man roster, however there’s not a lot certainty there. Schneider is the one one with greater than 81 massive league video games on his observe report and he’s coming off a irritating season. In brief, there’s loads of room for the Jays to make an exterior addition.
Extra broadly, some residence run pop could be welcome within the lineup. The Jays had been center of the pack by way of wRC+ and on-base proportion in 2024 however had been twenty sixth within the majors by way of residence runs, forward of simply the Marlins, Rays, Nationals and White Sox. Solely six guys on the membership acquired to double digits with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. the one Blue Jay to get to twenty dingers on the yr.
Santander can actually present that energy, having simply hit 44 residence runs this previous yr. With 105 homers over the previous three seasons, he’s sixth within the majors for that timeframe behind star sluggers Aaron Choose, Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Schwarber, Pete Alonso and Matt Olson. The Jays have a bunch of key contributors who hit from the best facet, corresponding to Guerrero, Springer, Bo Bichette and Alejandro Kirk, so Santander’s switch-hitting capability possible provides to the attraction. He’s not an amazing defender however he’s slashed .244/.317/.478 over the previous three years for a 124 wRC+ and the Jays don’t have a full-time designated hitter, which may permit them to restrict the draw back of his glovework.
It appears honest to conclude that Santander could be a fallback plan within the occasion the Jays don’t achieve touchdown Juan Soto. The Jays are one of many golf equipment nonetheless plausibly within the combine for Soto, with provides anticipated to come back in this week.
Soto ticks a variety of the identical containers as Santander, as he’s a lefty-swinging outfielder with energy, however he’s the extra engaging free agent for just a few causes. Soto is way youthful, as he’s now 26 whereas Santander is 30. Soto’s elite eye on the plate can be in a unique stratosphere in comparison with Santander. Soto’s 18.8% stroll charge in his profession is roughly double a traditional league common and better than his 17% strikeout charge. Santander, in the meantime, takes a free cross at a subpar 7.3% clip.
Based mostly on these variations, Soto goes to be Plan A for lots of golf equipment, who will then view Santander as a possible security alongside different free agent outfielders like Teoscar Hernández, Tyler O’Neill, Jurickson Profar and others. Whereas MLBTR predicted Soto for a $600MM assure, Santander was projected for a deal of $80MM over 4 years, clearly way more inexpensive.
Santander has been linked to the Yankees this winter as one in all many gamers the Yanks may flip to in the event that they don’t get Soto and the Jays possible view their state of affairs equally. Soto is extensively anticipated to safe a record-breaking contract of some form, so groups will naturally need to assess their payroll ledgers and think about the domino results of such a contract earlier than pivoting to different strikes.
On the pitching facet, the Jays have been linked to some beginning pitchers already, as talked about. The Jays have a veteran entrance three of their rotation, with Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Chris Bassitt all beneath contract for 2025. Bowden Francis appears to have earned a rotation gig along with his sturdy second half in 2024. Candidates for the fifth spot embrace Yariel Rodríguez and Jake Bloss, however Rodríguez additionally has loads of aid expertise and might be within the bullpen. Bloss nonetheless has choices and restricted expertise, not having thrown a lot within the majors nor the minors.
Including a pitcher like Fried or Snell or Burnes would clearly strengthen the group. Burnes has been among the best pitchers in baseball over the previous 5 years, although he hasn’t been fairly as dominant over the previous two. From 2020 to 2022, he had a 2.62 earned run common, 33.4% strikeout charge, 6.4% stroll charge and 47.6% floor ball charge. Within the two most up-to-date seasons, it’s been a 3.15 ERA, along with his strikeout charge falling to 24.3%.
That’s a little bit of a priority however Burnes continues to be arguably the highest pitcher out there in free company this offseason. MLBTR predicted Burnes for $200MM over seven years, with Snell at $160MM over 5 and Fried at $156MM over six.
There are numerous methods it may play out however it appears the Jays are setting their sights excessive after lacking out on Ohtani final winter after which having a disappointing season in 2024. It’s additionally been steered that the Jays might be fairly aggressive this offseason since there are just a few potential pivot factors developing. Guerrero, Bichette and Bassitt are all slated at no cost company for 2025, whereas staff president Mark Shapiro and supervisor John Schneider are every going into the ultimate years of their respective offers as nicely. Common supervisor Ross Atkins is beneath contract by means of 2026 although it’s been steered that he could also be beneath strain to ship within the upcoming season to be able to stick round.
The Jays had an Opening Day payroll of $225MM final yr, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, with RosterResource presently projecting them for $189MM in 2025. Shapiro had beforehand mentioned he didn’t count on the membership’s payroll to considerably improve or lower relative to 2024, so the Jays may have one thing within the neighborhood of $35MM to spend this offseason on a notable free agent.
Some reporting, together with from Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet, has pointed to possession maybe having a Soto and non-Soto finances. The membership was apparently keen to go to higher monetary extremes to signal Ohtani final winter however didn’t find yourself redistributing that cash to different gamers after he signed with the Dodgers. Equally, the payroll ceiling might be moved as much as accommodate a Soto deal however not in any other case.
No matter how a lot cash they find yourself spending this winter, draft choose forfeiture will probably be one other price the membership should think about. Every of Soto, Burnes, Fried and Santander rejected a qualifying supply, as did different potential targets like Hernández or Willy Adames. Snell wasn’t eligible to obtain a QO this offseason as a result of he already rejected one a yr in the past.
The Jays are believed to have simply snuck beneath the aggressive stability tax in 2024 by buying and selling away some veterans on the deadline, which impacts their penalties for signing a participant who rejected a qualifying supply. A tax-paying membership has to forfeit $1MM of worldwide bonus pool house in addition to its second- and fifth-highest choose within the subsequent draft. If the Jays did certainly go beneath the CBT line in 2024, these penalties will as a substitute be $500K of pool house and simply the second-best draft choose. In recent times, the Jays have been keen to signal gamers who rejected qualifying provides, doing so with each Springer and Bassitt.
