By J. Keeler Johnson (“Keelerman”) Twitter: @J_Keelerman
An thrilling slate of races
is happening throughout North America this Saturday.
At Churchill Downs, a
five-stakes card is highlighted by the Iroquois (G3) and Pocahontas (G3), the
opening legs of the Street to the Kentucky Derby and Street to the Kentucky Oaks.
At Belmont on the Huge A, the Jockey Membership Oaks (G3) is the characteristic occasion. And at
Woodbine, there are six graded stakes on the agenda, together with a quartet of
Grade 1s.
We’ll focus our consideration on
one in every of Woodbine’s top-tier prizes: the E. P. Taylor (G1) for fillies and mares
racing 1 1/4 miles on turf. At first look, it’d look like a
less-than-compelling race to handicap since solely six horses have entered. However
the small area measurement however, I imagine the E. P. Taylor will finish in an
upset.
The favorites, to their
credit score, are a high quality bunch. #2 Moira (7-5)
has been competing with aplomb in opposition to robust competitors for 3 seasons. She
completed third by 1 1/4 lengths in opposition to a world area within the Breeders’
Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1) final fall, and she or he’s arguably higher than ever
this 12 months. Within the Diana (G1), Moira closed gamely in opposition to a sluggish early/quick
late race form to complete second by three-quarters of a size. Then she
rallied resolutely in opposition to one other sluggish tempo to win the Beverly D. (G2) over reigning
E. P. Taylor winner #3 Fev Rover (7-2),
who’s again to defend her title.
Moira and Fev Rover are
logical win threats at Woodbine, as is the three-year-old filly #6 Cinderella’s Dream (2-1), who has
conquered her personal age group within the Belmont Oaks (G1) and Saratoga Oaks (G2).
Cinderella’s Dream boasts a robust turn-of-foot and should not be underestimated
for the formidable jockey/coach duo of William Buick and Charlie Appleby, who
have teamed as much as win eight Breeders’ Cup races since 2017.
However, I am considering
outdoors the field and backing #5 Blue Rose
Cen (8-1) to win the E. P. Taylor. Based mostly in France, the daughter of
Churchill ranked among the many greatest fillies in her nation in each 2022 and 2023.
She hasn’t been as productive this 12 months, however her again class is formidable.
As a two-year-old in 2022,
Blue Rose Cen received 4 out of six begins. She ended the season in resounding
style, taking the Prix d’Aumale (G3) and Prix Marcel Boussac (G1) in
succession. The latter victory got here by 5 lengths.
Blue Rose Cen once more received 4
out of six begins in 2023. She began the 12 months on a excessive word, rattling off
triumphs within the Prix de la Grotte (G3), Poule d’Essai des Pouliches (G1), and
Prix de Diane (G3). Within the Prix de Diana, held over about 1 5/16 miles, Blue
Rose Cen romped by 4 lengths.
Blue Rose Cen subsequently
missed the trifecta whereas going through older rivals within the Nassau (G1) and Prix
Vermeille (G1), however these races featured deep fields and Blue Rose Cen was
overwhelmed by modest margins each instances. Within the Prix Vermeille, contested over a
distance (about 1 1/2 miles) seemingly farther than Blue Rose Cen’s greatest, she was
overwhelmed solely 2 1/2 lengths by future Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) winner and
Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf runner-up Heat Coronary heart.
Regardless of these defeats, Blue
Rose Cen recaptured her successful methods in her last begin of 2023, taking the
Prix de l’Opera (G1) over about 1 1/4 miles. That triumph marked the fourth
Group 1 win of her adorned profession.
If Blue Rose Cen had gone
unraced for the reason that Prix de l’Opera, she could be a heavy favourite to take the E.
P. Taylor. However 4 begins in 2024 have did not yield a single top-three
end, therefore Blue Rose Cen’s rating as a longshot in her North American
debut.
Nevertheless, a few of Blue Rose
Cen’s efforts are higher than they first seem. She confronted males in her first
two begins of the season, ending fifth (overwhelmed solely 2 1/2 lengths) within the
Prix d’Ispahan (G1) and seventh (behind reigning Breeders’ Cup Turf winner
Auguste Rodin) within the Prince of Wales’s (G1) at Royal Ascot.
Again in opposition to fellow fillies
and mares, Blue Rose Cen struggled residence final of seven within the Prix Rothschild
(G1) racing about one mile. However when she stretched again out over roughly 1 1/4
miles for the Prix Jean Romanet (G1) final month, she fared significantly better, ending
fourth whereas overwhelmed solely three-quarters of a size by Mqse De Sevigne, winner
of the Prix Jean Rothschild and Prix d’Ispahan.
In different phrases, Blue Rose
Cen is rounding again into kind simply in time for the E. P. Taylor. Racing 1 1/4
miles at Woodbine ought to swimsuit Blue Rose Cen simply high-quality, and it is value noting
she’s including Lasix, which might probably set off enchancment.
General, the shape strains Blue
Rose Cen brings into the E. P. Taylor are wonderful. She’s been going through fierce
competitors race after race after race, and I imagine she’ll discover the E. P.
Taylor to be a neater spot, setting the stage for an upset victory.
Alternatives
1st: Blue Rose Cen
2nd: Moira
third: Cinderella’s Dream
Lock of the Week
When you watched Royal Ascot
earlier this 12 months, then you definitely doubtlessly got here away impressed by Bedtime Story. The 2-year-old
daughter of British celebrity Frankel was nothing lower than sensational whereas
going through males within the seven-furlong Chesham S., dominating 14 rivals by 9 1/2
lengths.
Bedtime Story has carried out
nothing unsuitable since then. She’s adopted up with victories within the Silver Flash
(G3) and Debutante (G2), setting the stage for a successful Group 1 debut in
Sunday’s seven-furlong Moyglare Stud (G1) on the Curragh in Eire.
The sector for the Moyglare
Stud has but to be finalized, however Bedtime Story is an amazing favourite
amongst British bookmakers, who’re usually providing 8-11 odds. Along with her unblemished
4-for-4 document and apparent expertise, this Aidan O’Brien-trained filly looms as
one of many likeliest winners anyplace on the earth this weekend.
Now it is your flip! Who do
you want this weekend?
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (often known as “Keelerman”) is a author, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing fanatic. An ideal fan of racing historical past, he considers Dr. Fager to be the best racehorse ever produced in America, however counts Zenyatta as his all-time favourite.
