The Cardinals’ reset isn’t more likely to characteristic trades of Willson Contreras or Sonny Grey — each have no-trade clauses and reportedly want to stay in St. Louis — however they’ll nonetheless have some huge names in the marketplace. Amongst them might be third baseman Nolan Arenado. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Publish-Dispatch writes that the Playing cards will spend the following couple weeks gauging which groups have curiosity in Arenado and getting a really feel for what is likely to be out there in a commerce. If there’s something compelling that comes from these early talks, they’ll strategy Arenado about his openness to waiving his no-trade clause for a commerce to the placement(s) in query.
Arenado, 34 in April, is signed for one more three seasons and owed a complete of $74MM in that point. The Rockies are on the hook for $10MM of that sum ($5MM in 2025 and $5MM in 2026), which helps to make the contract a bit extra engaging. The ten-time Gold Glove winner and six-time Platinum Glove recipient stays a premium defender on the scorching nook, however whereas Arenado was an MVP finalist in 2022, his previous two seasons on the plate have been far much less spectacular. He’s nonetheless been an above-average hitter, however not by a large margin. Since Opening Day 2023, Arenado carries a .269/.320/.426 batting line (104 wRC+).
As soon as a perennial risk for 30 to 40 residence runs, Arenado has seen his energy diminish significantly over the previous two years. This previous season’s .123 ISO (slugging share minus batting common) was a career-low mark. The 16 residence runs he tallied in 635 plate appearances and 152 video games are his fewest since he hit solely 10 lengthy balls as a rookie in 2013 (albeit in a smaller pattern of 133 video games/514 plate appearances).
Arenado’s contact expertise stay wonderful, however even the 15.5% strikeout price he’s posted since 2023 is up from the 13.2% price he posted within the 4 previous seasons. He’s by no means been one to stroll at an particularly excessive clip, however Arenado drew a free cross in 9.1% of his plate appearances from 2016-22 — in contrast to only 6.8% in 2023-24. This previous season’s common exit velocity (86.3 mph), barrel price (3.2%) and hard-hit price (31.2%) had been all properly shy of league-average and simply career-low numbers.
The downturn in offensive output, mixed with a comparatively weighty wage and Arenado’s no-trade rights, all complicate the paths to a possible deal being brokered. The extent to which that no-trade provision will come into play is an open query, however there’s motive to suppose it may not be the hurdle such clauses usually are. Arenado’s exit in Colorado was prompted partially by his frustration over the crew’s lack of ability to area a aggressive roster. He handed on an opt-out alternative in contract after a third-place NL MVP end in 2022 partly as a result of he prioritized taking part in for a contending membership and anticipated the Cardinals to be simply that.
Whereas a commerce of Arenado is way, removed from a positive factor, there are many groups who’ll be within the combine for third base assist. The Yankees, Mariners, Astros (if Alex Bregman leaves), Blue Jays, Tigers and Royals all have fairly easy vacancies on the place. If Pete Alonso indicators elsewhere in free company, the Mets may transfer Mark Vientos to first base and enter the third base market. The Dodgers don’t want a 3rd baseman however have been linked to Arenado incessantly through the years.
If the Cardinals do transfer on from Arenado, it’ll gel with their offseason objective of opening extra taking part in time for younger expertise. They’ve already dedicated to shifting Contreras to first base with a purpose to create at-bats for 24-year-old Ivan Herrera behind the dish. Dealing Arenado may open reps for Jordan Walker at his pure place — his tried transfer from third base to the outfield hasn’t performed out notably properly — or for Nolan Gorman. It’d additionally trim a notable amount of cash off the books in every of the following three years, maybe permitting the Playing cards to spend a bit extra freely after they finally look to emerge from the present retooling effort.
