By J. Keeler Johnson (“Keelerman”) Twitter: @J_Keelerman
Three weeks out from the
Breeders’ Cup, there is not a complete lot of graded stakes motion happening in
North America. However Keeneland does have one main spotlight for us: Saturday’s
$750,000 Queen Elizabeth II Problem Cup (G1), which has drawn a robust discipline
of 10 three-year-old fillies to race 1 1/8 miles on turf.
Traditionally, fillies based mostly
in North America have dominated the Queen Elizabeth II Problem Cup. Each
winner from 1998 via 2022 (a span of 25 years) exited a race in North
America. However that pattern was damaged final yr by Mawj, who shipped in from
England off a win within the historic 1000 Guineas (G1) 5 months prior. And I
consider we’ll see one other European take dwelling first prize within the 2024 Queen
Elizabeth II Problem Cup.
There are two worldwide
raiders to select from, and each convey compelling credentials to the desk. One
is #10 Candala (9-2), a French-bred
filly who has proven respectable kind towards high quality competitors. Through the
spring she received the Prix de la Grotte (G3) racing 1,600 meters (about one mile),
and final day trip she completed third by 2 1/2 lengths within the 2,000-meter (about
1 1/4-mile) Prix Alec Head (G2). The winner, Pleasant Soul, flattered the shape
by returning to win the Prix de l’Opera (G1) final Sunday.
Nevertheless, a case might be made
that Candala is at her finest operating 2,000 meters or father; along with her
tremendous Prix Alec Head effort, she owns a third-place end by two lengths within the
2,400-meter (about 1 1/2-mile) Prix de Malleret (G2). Moreover, each of
Candala’s profession wins have come over very gentle floor, and the firmest floor
she’s tackled has been labeled good-to-soft. With dry climate within the forecast
for Keeneland, the turf is more likely to be agency for the Queen Elizabeth II
Problem Cup, and Candala is not assured to relish the circumstances.
That is why I favor the
possibilities of the opposite European challenger, #5
Soprano (7-2). She’s repeatedly knocked heads with fierce competitors in
sprints and miles and has completed so over quite a lot of turf circumstances, together with
good-to-firm.
Soprano has plenty of sturdy
showings on her file. Final yr, for instance, she completed second within the
Candy Solera (G3) to future Irish basic winner and a number of Group 1 winner
Fallen Angel, and in addition third to four-time Group 1 winner Porta Fortuna within the
Albany (G3) at Royal Ascot. This yr, Soprano returned to Royal Ascot to win
the one-mile Sandringham over good-to-firm turf, and in the course of the summer time she ran
fourth by 3 1/2 lengths to Pleasant Soul within the Valiant (G3).
However Soprano’s newest effort
is why I am excited to again her within the Queen Elizabeth II Problem Cup.
Stepping up at school for the one-mile Matron (G1) at Leopardstown, she completed
third, overwhelmed 1 1/2 lengths by Porta Fortuna and half a size by Fallen Angel.
That was a wonderful exhibiting towards elite rivals, and I count on Soprano will
discover the competitors a bit simpler within the Queen Elizabeth II Problem Cup.
One potential chink in
Soprano’s armor is the actual fact she’s but to run farther than one mile, however I do not
see this being a problem. It’s normal for European horses to shine operating a
little longer in North American than in Europe, because the velocity they present over
shorter journeys usually interprets nicely to operating longer over tight-turning North
American programs. Mawj had no expertise racing farther than one mile in Europe,
however that did not cease her from efficiently stretching out in final yr’s Queen
Elizabeth II Problem Cup.
So there you could have it:
Soprano is my high choose to win the Queen Elizabeth II Problem Cup. For second
place, I will facet with #6 Oversubscribed (6-1),
my best choice among the many American fillies. Skilled by Chad Brown, who has received
this race 5 instances, Oversubscribed was a dominant winner of the one-mile Wild
Applause S. early in the summertime at Aqueduct, charging from far behind two
dueling leaders to win by 3 1/4 lengths. In response to the Equibase GPS end result
chart, Oversubscribed ran her last quarter-mile in a fast :23.14.
Oversubscribed subsequently
endured a troubled journey within the one-mile Lake George (G3) at Saratoga. She was
buried behind rivals down the homestretch and by no means had a lot racing room. Even
nonetheless, she charged dwelling between horses to complete second by three-quarters of a
size whereas operating her last quarter-mile in :22.94.
Choices
1st: Soprano
2nd: Oversubscribed
third: Candala
Now it is your flip! Who do
you want within the Queen Elizabeth II Problem Cup?
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (also referred to as “Keelerman”) is a author, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing fanatic. A fantastic fan of racing historical past, he considers Dr. Fager to be the best racehorse ever produced in America, however counts Zenyatta as his all-time favourite.
