The Cubs’ deadline trajectory has been an oft-discussed subject over the course of the previous few weeks, with the group sitting at or close to the underside of the NL Central but in addition inside putting distance of the ultimate NL Wild Card spot. They’ve ostensibly explored prospects on each ends of the purchase/promote spectrum, displaying curiosity in Toronto catcher Danny Jansen whereas additionally reportedly speaking with each the Yankees and Pink Sox concerning the potential of a Jameson Taillon commerce. The Cubs dropped their first two video games popping out of the All-Star break to a D-backs group that’s now tied for the ultimate Wild Card spot, although they dodged a sweep in an extra-inning win Sunday.
Whereas the Cubs are 3.5 video games out within the Wild Card hunt, the most recent report from Patrick Mooney, Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic signifies that the Cubs aren’t planning to be consumers at subsequent week’s commerce deadline. That’s not a sign there’ll be any type of distinguished fireplace sale for the Cubs both, nonetheless. Chicago hopes to contend subsequent yr and isn’t more likely to transfer gamers who’re underneath management until they obtain large league-ready expertise in return.
As for the Cubs’ slate of rental gamers, there’s merely not a lot to hawk to different golf equipment. Drew Smyly is sitting on a formidable 2.92 ERA in 37 reduction innings, however he’s additionally walked 10.2% of his opponents and is taking part in on a contract different groups will need to keep away from. Smyly is owed the steadiness of an $8.5MM wage for the present season (about $3.2MM) along with a $2.5MM buyout on a $10MM mutual choice for the 2025 season.
Righty Kyle Hendricks is a free agent at season’s finish however isn’t going to attract any curiosity with a $16MM wage and a 6.69 ERA (until the Cubs eat the whole lot of his contract, maybe). Hector Neris has a 3.74 ERA and 24.2% strikeout charge in 33 2/3 innings — however he’s additionally walked a career-worst 16.1% of opponents. Neris is taking part in on a $9MM wage, and his $9MM membership choice will convert to a participant choice if he seems in 24 extra video games this season (60 complete). That’s going to show off any probably events. Cody Bellinger can develop into a free agent at season’s finish, however he’s on the injured listing with a fractured finger and the 2 opt-out provisions on his three-year deal would’ve made buying and selling him terribly troublesome anyhow.
The Athletic’s report a minimum of raises the speculative chance of listening to presents for starter Justin Steele, although with three-plus seasons of membership management remaining, the value would presumably be as excessive and even greater than the asks for crosstown ace Garrett Crochet (two years of membership management remaining) and AL Cy Younger front-runner Tarik Skubal (the latter of whom shouldn’t be anticipated to be traded). There’s no purpose to suppose the Cubs would outwardly store Steele, however listening to see if somebody steps up with a Juan Soto-esque haul for final yr’s fifth-place NL Cy Younger finisher is smart sufficient.
With regard to Taillon, there’d be some sense to transferring him even when the group doesn’t envision a broad-reaching sell-off. In signing any free agent to a long-term deal, a group is most within the first couple years of mentioned contract. The 2025-26 seasons might be Taillon’s age-33 and age-34 campaigns. He’ll earn $18MM in every season on his barely backloaded $68MM deal. Transferring him would release some cash to probably spend on a youthful pitcher this offseason — or maybe on one other space of want solely.
The Cubs management Steele, Shota Imanaga, Javier Assad, Ben Brown, Hayden Wesneski and Jordan Wicks by way of a minimum of the 2027 season. Prospects Cade Horton and Brandon Birdsell are rising shortly by way of the system. There’s some depth from which to deal, and a Taillon commerce may herald expertise, shed future payroll and cut back future luxurious tax obligations. Taillon wouldn’t command practically the identical sort of haul as Steele for numerous causes (age, wage, basic expertise stage), however there aren’t many arms accessible so the Cubs may conceivably benefit from that scarcity and see what the market bears.
It’s price emphasizing, too, that almost all groups’ plans stay fairly fluid this time of yr. Whereas groups going through a gaps of eight, 9, ten or extra video games of their respective postseason pursuits are certain to give attention to promoting (simply as golf equipment within the reverse place will primarily give attention to including), practically half the groups in baseball exist in a relative purgatory between these two ends of the spectrum. There’s at the moment a three-team tie for the third NL Wild Card spot (Mets, D-backs, Padres), and one other 5 groups are inside 4 video games of that last spot — the Cubs amongst them. Within the American League, there are 4 groups inside six video games of the ultimate Wild Card spot.
As an example, if the Cubs snapped off six or seven straight wins starting in the present day, they’d presumably be way more open to the thought of including some items. That’s significantly true as a result of their subsequent three video games come in opposition to the division-leading Brewers. However a win streak of that nature is at all times an extended shot, and it’s loads notable that in the meanwhile, Chicago isn’t viewing itself as a group that can commerce even lower-caliber minor league expertise in trade for some marginal rental upgrades. Time will inform whether or not the gamers on the sphere can push the entrance workplace to take a extra aggressive stance, however proper now it appears probably the Cubs are in for a comparatively quiet deadline.
