The Toronto Maple Leafs have accomplished their first ten video games of the season, providing followers and coaches an opportunity to guage the staff’s ahead traces. Early-season assessments reveal strengths, areas for enchancment, and a few arduous decisions forward. Right here’s a breakdown of which gamers have been simplest, who’s on the bubble, and the important thing elements influencing lineup selections shifting ahead.
Maple Leafs Forwards Consistency and Well being so Far
One of many Maple Leafs’ greatest benefits this season has been consistency of their lineup. Aside from John Tavares lacking time as a result of sickness, the ahead corps has remained remarkably secure. Well being and stability have allowed the staff to construct chemistry, significantly throughout the prime two traces. This continuity has given head coach Craig Berube the flexibleness to experiment with totally different combos for the underside six with out worrying about disrupting the highest gamers’ rhythm.
Associated: Maple Leafs’ Promising Period of Defence Has Fizzled Out
The season remains to be younger, however having a near-full lineup over the primary ten video games has been invaluable for the Maple Leafs, particularly as they proceed to evaluate new gamers and make changes for depth roles. It has additionally allowed for a deeper analysis of every participant’s contributions and consistency.
Evaluating the Core: The Prime 7 Gamers
Seven gamers are primarily “locks” within the Maple Leafs’ lineup, and so they’ve performed each sport besides Tavares’ one absence. These core forwards embrace Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, Tavares, Max Domi, Matthew Knies, and newcomer Steven Lorentz. Every has delivered constantly. Matthews, Marner, and Nylander proceed to guide the staff in factors. Matthews’ offensive firepower and Marner’s playmaking talents have outlined the highest line, whereas Nylander’s velocity and creativity have been important on the second line alongside Domi and Tavares.
(Picture by Maddie Meyer/Getty Pictures)
This group of seven forwards represents the offensive spine of the staff, balancing scoring means with defensive accountability. Domi’s versatility, Knies’ spectacular early-season kind, and Lorentz’s defensive play have helped solidify this core. The teaching workers’s confidence in these gamers is evident from their ice time, which averages properly above the remainder of the ahead group.
The Odd Man Out: Who’s Combating for a Spot?
With these prime seven gamers secured, the main target shifts to the competitors among the many remaining six forwards vying for 5 out there spots. Max Pacioretty, Bobby McMann, Nicholas Robertson, Pontus Holmberg, David Kampf, and Ryan Reaves have all had probabilities to point out their expertise. Right here’s a fast have a look at their contributions primarily based on targets, assists, and their plus/minus ranking:
| Participant | Video games Performed | Objectives | Assists | Factors | Plus/Minus |
| Max Pacioretty | 7 | 2 | 3 | 5 | +4 |
| Bobby McMann | 9 | 3 | 1 | 4 | +5 |
| Nicholas Robertson | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 |
| Pontus Holmberg | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 |
| David Kampf | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 |
| Ryan Reaves | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 |
Associated: NHL Rumors: Oilers, Utah, Crimson Wings, Canucks, Flames
At first look, Pacioretty and McMann have made the strongest case to remain within the lineup. They’ve every contributed offensively with strong plus/minus rankings. Whereas low on factors, Robertson has maintained a optimistic plus/minus, indicating he’s been defensively accountable. Nevertheless, Kampf, Holmberg, and Reaves have struggled to constantly influence the scoresheet, elevating questions on their roles because the season progresses.
Superior Stats: The Effectiveness Issue (EF%)
To transcend conventional statistics, it’s value analyzing every participant’s Effectiveness Issue (EF%). This measure combines key superior stats—on-ice 5-on-5 goals-for share (GF%), anticipated goals-for share (xGF%), and high-danger scoring probabilities for share (HDCF%)—to evaluate every participant’s influence:
| Participant | GF% | xGF% | HDCF% | EF% |
| Max Pacioretty | 85.7% | 56.7% | 54.3% | 65.6% |
| Bobby McMann | 72.7% | 41.3% | 52.6% | 55.5% |
| Nicholas Robertson | 66.7% | 50.6% | 51.5% | 56.3% |
| David Kampf | 25% | 54.2% | 54.5% | 44.6% |
| Pontus Holmberg | 25% | 38.1% | 40.7% | 34.6% |
| Ryan Reaves | 0% | 47.3% | 50% | 32.4% |
A optimistic EF% over 50% alerts a participant’s means to contribute to staff success. With a formidable 65.6% EF%, Pacioretty stands out among the many bottom-six forwards, supported by a excessive GF% of 85.7%. McMann and Robertson additionally register optimistic EF% scores, exhibiting a balanced contribution in all three areas.
On the decrease finish, Kampf, Holmberg, and Reaves have EF% scores under 50%, indicating they’ve struggled to ship measurable influence. Reaves, with an EF% of simply 32.4%, has significantly confronted difficulties establishing his position past physicality regardless of his 24 hits. Kampf and Holmberg’s low GF% present the Maple Leafs’ challenges with objective manufacturing within the backside six, a possible situation if accidents or fatigue have an effect on the highest traces.
The Backside Line: Rating the Backside-Six Forwards
Based mostly on the EF% and conventional stats, Pacioretty, McMann, and Robertson have every proven worth in holding their roster spots safe. Nevertheless, Kampf, Holmberg, and Reaves would possibly discover their roles shifting because the Maple Leafs face upcoming lineup selections, together with potential returns from injured gamers like Calle Jarnkrok and Connor Dewar.
Associated: Former Maple Leaf Nic Petan: The place is He Now?
The next steps will probably contain experimentation and match-up-based rotations as Berube and the Maple Leafs teaching workers consider these gamers. Pacioretty successfully leads the pack. He has proven nice chemistry with Tavares and may rating. McMann and Robertson additionally present promise, suggesting the Maple Leafs’ backside six would possibly stay dynamic as they proceed fine-tuning for a deep playoff run.
[Note: I want to thank long-time Maple Leafs fan Stan Smith for collaborating with me on this post. Stan’s Facebook profile can be found here.]
