Every little thing Is Burger in Texas

Not content material to look at from the sidelines at their house Winter Conferences, the Texas Rangers dipped their toes within the water on Tuesday night. (An idiom I selected with nice care, contemplating earlier occasions of historic import at this 12 months’s venue.) Along with a three-year, $75 million deal to convey veteran righty Nathan Eovaldi again to Arlington, the Rangers acquired Jake Burger from the Marlins in change for minor league infielders Max Acosta and Echedry Vargas, in addition to pitching prospect Brayan Mendoza.

Any description of a Burger commerce begs out to incorporate the phrase “provides much-needed energy.” I don’t know that the Rangers want extra energy, but it surely’s definitely one thing you’ll be able to by no means have an excessive amount of of in your lineup. I’ll say this: Over the previous two seasons, Burger has hit 63 house runs. So has Corey Seager. Adolis García has hit 64; Marcus Semien, 52. No one else at present on the Rangers has hit greater than 33.

Burger isn’t the sort of 30-homer man who produces a bunch of fortunate mortar pictures and wallscrapers. Quite the opposite, this dude hits nukes. Up to now two seasons, Burger has 69 batted balls with an exit velocity of 110 mph or extra, which is eighth most within the league. He’s one in every of simply 9 hitters who’ve 5 or extra batted balls with an EV of 115 or higher, and one in every of solely eight to have damaged the 118-mph barrier even as soon as.

That sort of uncooked energy is offered solely to a choose few who’ve been judged worthy by their creator, and even then it’s a must to hit the weights and eat your spinach. Given a full season’s price of enjoying time, I might count on Burger to cross Invoice Mueller and Luke Voit to maneuver into second place all-time in profession house runs amongst former Missouri State Bears. (Burger is simply 23 homers behind Voit for second, however 310 behind present record-holder Ryan Howard, so the leaderboard will solely shuffle a lot. They make ’em massive and robust in Starkvegas.)

When it comes to uncooked energy alone, Burger is genuinely in a category with guys like Kyle Schwarber, Pete Alonso, and Austin Riley.

We all know that Schwarber and Riley are $20 million-a-year guys, and Alonso might be going to make much more when he indicators. Burger turns 29 years outdated subsequent April, however as a result of accidents and the pandemic worn out three seasons of his minor league profession, he’s not even arbitration-eligible but.

Certainly the Rangers gave up a buttload with a purpose to get him.

Ehhh, probably not.

A pleasant perk of this information breaking throughout Winter Conferences is having our supreme potentate of prospects, Eric Longenhagen, subsequent to me within the media room whereas I write. Right here’s a abstract of what Eric needed to say in regards to the return:

Acosta received promoted to Double-A in 2024, and he took to this weed-out stage with nice aplomb. He lower his strikeout fee by greater than a 3rd from 2023, backstopped by a 26% two-strike chase fee. That was solely two factors greater than his already-impressive 24% general chase fee. Eight house runs in 104 video games won’t be on a regular basis starter energy, however due to a excessive common, aggressive stroll fee, and 23 doubles, Acosta posted a 113 wRC+, which is downright spectacular for a 21-year-old shortstop. He adopted that up with a formidable exhibiting within the Arizona Fall League.

Vargas put up good floor stats — .276/.321/.454 with 14 house runs in 97 video games — at A-ball, however he missed the Rangers’ prospect listing partly due to his gag-inducing chase charges: 44% general, 59% with two strikes, 42% in opposition to fastballs. The direct quote from Eric was “one of the impatient hitters in all of professional baseball.” When he does make contact, he hits the ball within the air to the pull aspect, which is sweet, however his lack of bodily projection (and arm power) will in all probability stop him from sticking at shortstop, and except he finds out in regards to the strike zone, he received’t hit sufficient to stay wherever else.

Mendoza, who turns 21 in January, is a 5-foot-11 lefty who dominated Low-A over 22 appearances (17 begins) earlier than ending the season at Excessive-A. His finest pitch is a bat-missing changeup, which was a weapon after a grip change earlier than the season. He’ll additionally throw a low-90s fastball and a 10-to-4 breaking ball within the low 80s. Paradoxically, Mendoza’s quick stature creates the looks of an uphill angle on his fastball that makes the pitch awkward to hit regardless of its pedestrian velocity. If that holds, he may transfer rapidly and hit the majors as a back-end starter pretty rapidly. However Eric additionally warns: “If his fastball velocity sags as his workload grows, then an consequence extra like Tommy Milone is probably going.”

It’s greater than the Marlins gave as much as get Burger from the White Sox a 12 months and a half in the past, however the median consequence for these prospects leaves Miami with two complementary massive leaguers and a shortstop who could possibly be good if he learns tips on how to carry out the foundational act of hitting.

So why is Burger much less worthwhile than the opposite plus-plus uncooked energy guys? It’s a mix of small-to-medium-sized components. (Ironic, I suppose.)

Burger isn’t fairly as fly ball-happy as Schwarber, Alonso, or Riley, however when it comes to hitting the ball within the air to the pull aspect — the shortcut to dinger-filled prosperity — he really beats Riley fairly handily. However whereas he and Riley are each nominally third basemen, Burger offers up nearly a win of defensive worth per 12 months to his former division rival.

Then there’s the stroll fee. Burger’s profession strikeout fee is 27.5%, which is excessive, however we’ve usually accepted that strikeouts are the tradeoff for with the ability to hit a ball 115 miles an hour. Sadly, Burger doesn’t possess Schwarber’s preternatural reward for strike zone judgment, and even Alonso’s competence in strike zone judgment.

Even with the strikeouts, Burger hits for an honest common: .250 on the button in every of his previous three seasons. (The foremost league, uh, common in 2024 was .243.) However Alonso walks twice as a lot as Burger; Schwarber walks thrice as a lot. Even with Burger’s penchant for getting hit by pitches, that involves discrepancies of roughly 20 and 50 factors, respectively, in OBP.

With all that mentioned, Burger’s nonetheless a superb participant. He could be a poor man’s slugger, however not that poor. Over the previous two seasons, Alonso’s been price 4.9 wins, Schwarber 4.4, and Burger 3.6 in about 80% of the enjoying time. RosterResource has Burger penciled in because the Rangers’ DH, which is sensible as a result of Nathaniel Lowe and Josh Jung have the 2 infield corners locked down. However in case one in every of them will get harm — which is a chance based mostly on the truth that it occurred final season — Burger can step in. Defensively, it shouldn’t be Plan A, however he can stand at third base with a glove with out horrifying babies.

However he’s going to hit arbitration in a 12 months, so the Marlins figured he was about to get costly, they usually’re too poor even for the poor man’s slugger.

A lot to the Rangers’ profit.