Properly, the Angels aren’t ready round, are they? Within the week instantly following the World Collection, the Halos have accomplished the one commerce thus far this offseason involving gamers moving into every route. They’ve additionally acquired Scott Kingery from the Phillies for money issues and executed a waiver declare on Oakland’s Ryan Noda, each low-risk acquisitions with the potential to fill a distinct segment on the massive league degree.
The Triple-A primary base depth chart for the Angels proper now lists Noda alongside Niko Kavadas and Sonny DiChiara, which is a bumper crop of cube-shaped school sluggers if ever there have been one. Somebody discover out what Tim Elko is as much as and provides him a name so the Angels can have the total set. However I digress.
Amidst all that different exercise, Perry Minasian and Co. have made this offseason’s most notable free agent signing up to now: right-handed pitcher Kyle Hendricks, late of the Chicago Cubs. Hendricks was the second main league free agent to signal thus far this offseason, after Dylan Covey’s one-year cope with the Mets, and he’s a much bigger identify by far. A two-time Cy Younger vote-getter and a cornerstone of the profitable Cubs groups of the late 2010s, Hendricks joins the Angels on a one-year, $2.5 million deal.
ESPN’s Jesse Rogers, who reported the worth of Hendricks’ contract on Wednesday afternoon, famous that the Angels have been within the 34-year-old right-hander partially as a result of he might mentor a younger pitching employees. I believe baseball folks are usually fast to evaluate persona based mostly on stereotype. Hendricks went to Dartmouth and hasn’t damaged 91 mph in a aggressive sport in eight years — which appears like hyperbole however is actually true — so he should be good. And if he’s good, he should be a coach on the sphere or one thing prefer it.
If that’s the motivation for signing Hendricks, it’s a reasonably amusing idea, contemplating the Angels aren’t precisely placing out a Era Okay-type hype practice for his or her younger arms. Nonetheless, the soft-tossin’-est righty starter of his technology makes for an amusing distinction with Ben Joyce. And the cabinet isn’t fully naked. Reid Detmers was horrendous final season, however his underlying numbers have been merely dangerous and he had two good seasons earlier than that. And I favored what I noticed out of Jack Kochanowicz the couple instances I noticed him pitch in 2024. (Although I understand now at the least a kind of begins was towards the White Sox, so take that for what it’s value.)
With all that mentioned, Hendricks does truly look like a sensible man, and take into account this: Since that final 91-mph pitch in Sport 6 of the 2016 NLCS, Hendricks has thrown 1,130 main league innings with an ERA- of 96 and collected 16.4 WAR. So he should have some tips up his sleeve.
And whereas $2.5 million could be quite a bit to pay for a pitching coach, it’s a pittance for a pitcher with even a distant probability of throwing 100 or simpler massive league innings. For distinction, it’s lower than a 3rd of what the Angels are going to pay Evan White to benefit from the scenic great thing about Salt Lake Metropolis this summer season. However hey, the Angels are a big-market staff. Even of their post-Shohei Ohtani lean years, the Halos ran a $170 million payroll final season, which was thirteenth within the majors. This can be a rounding error.
Hendricks had spent his total 11-season main league profession with the Cubs, who acquired him in a commerce with the Rangers in 2012. (Ryan Dempster went the opposite manner.) After a interval of decline for each participant and staff, it appeared like the 2 have been sure to half methods ultimately, and it is smart that he’d wish to go to the Angels. Hendricks grew up in Orange County, and was even drafted by the Angels out of highschool in 2008. He’s certainly one of 4 future massive leaguers who have been drafted within the thirty ninth spherical in 2008 however didn’t signal that 12 months. The others: Mikie Mahtook, Brad Miller, and Yan Gomes. If “traded for Ryan Dempster” doesn’t offer you a way of Hendricks’ age, maybe a Mikie Mahtook reference will put you in the fitting state of mind.
Now, I’ve been burying the lede a little bit right here. These of you who didn’t comply with the Cubs final season could be curious how Hendricks acquired on, and are questioning why I haven’t introduced up his stats from 2024 but. Properly, they’re not superior.
This previous season, 126 pitchers threw at the least 100 innings within the majors. Hendricks ranked 124th in ERA, two spots behind Patrick Corbin, who’s mainly a punchline at this level in his profession. Now, Hendricks’ peripherals recommend he was a little bit laborious achieved by, however a 5.92 ERA provides lots of room for a pitcher to be unfortunate and dangerous on the identical time. Certainly, Hendricks was 107th in xERA (4.80) and 121st in FIP (4.98). He was second from the underside in strikeout price, at 15.3%, and his stroll price was merely common and never distinctive, which left him a hundred and twentieth in Okay-BB%.
Breaking it down pitch by pitch, issues don’t get a lot rosier. Hendricks acquired first rate outcomes on his curveball in 2024, however that’s not his make-or-break pitch. The important thing for Hendricks is his changeup — it has been his total profession.
Hendricks’ repertoire has advanced since he was a rookie, which is to be anticipated for a pitcher who’s lasted so long as he has. However the core of it has all the time been the sinker and the changeup. Hendricks has all the time thrown a further fastball — initially a cutter, extra just lately a four-seamer — and had at the least the credible menace of a curveball. However in each season of Hendricks’ profession, his sinker and changeup have mixed to make up between 61% and 81% of his complete pitches thrown.
That combo has labored very effectively as just lately as 2023, when Hendricks allowed a 3.74 ERA in 24 begins for the Cubs. That’s not fairly nearly as good as he was in 2016, but when Hendricks had hit free company 12 months earlier, he’d be in line to make 4 or 5 instances as a lot as he’s making now. Probably extra.
What’s the distinction between 2023 and 2024? Properly, in 2023, Hendricks’ sinker was satisfactory and his changeup was a reliable out pitch. A 12 months later, each of these pitches acquired completely torched:
Kyle Hendricks’ Two Finest Pitches Have Deserted Him
| Changeup | Pitch% | AVG | SLG | wOBA | Whiff% | HardHit% | RV/100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 41.1 | .180 | .279 | .233 | 32.4 | 17.8 | 1.4 |
| 2024 | 38.7 | .267 | .409 | .316 | 23.9 | 22.4 | -1.1 |
| 2023 | 34.9 | .318 | .460 | .352 | 8.0 | 39.5 | 0.1 |
| 2024 | 35.5 | .333 | .493 | .379 | 10.3 | 42.2 | -1.7 |
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
Certainly one of two issues goes to occur to Hendricks within the season to come back. He might determine one thing out and get his 2023 type again; it’s not like he’s dropping the rate or stuff that when made him nice. He tinkered together with his fastball combine to lefties in 2024, throwing them extra sinkers than four-seamers for the primary time since he began throwing a four-seamer usually. And what occurred? Left-handed hitters hit a fair .400 — once more, not a joke — towards his sinker. Contemplating the same motion profiles of the 2 pitches, and the mere six mile-an-hour distinction between them, that might appear to be an apparent place to begin in terms of triaging Hendricks’ issues.
But it surely’s additionally potential that Hendricks put up an ERA close to 6.00 final season as a result of he simply doesn’t have it anymore. There are actually worse locations to seek out that out than in Southern California, 30 miles from dwelling. And if that is the tip, he’s already acquired irons within the hearth on his subsequent job. At the least anyone thinks he’d be a superb coach.
