For months, the Astros have expressed hope they’ll re-sign Alex Bregman. Brian McTaggart of MLB.com wrote this afternoon that they’ve made a six-year, $156MM provide — supporting current reporting from USA At this time’s Bob Nightengale in regards to the membership’s consolation zone. Nightengale and McTaggart every counsel that Bregman’s camp hoped to land nearer to $200MM at the least.
With a major hole between the edges, it’s price analyzing the group’s payroll. RosterResource calculates Houston’s aggressive steadiness tax quantity at practically $234MM. That’s $7MM shy of subsequent season’s $241MM base threshold. Re-signing Bregman would push them nicely into CBT territory. Even when they balk at his asking value, they’d have to be prepared to pay the tax to make any notable upgrades until they ship out wage.
The posh tax isn’t a agency restrict. Proprietor Jim Crane allowed the entrance workplace to push into tax territory this 12 months. He has steered he’s prepared to take action once more if the group feels they’re focusing on the right gamers. Providing Bregman a $26MM common annual worth reinforces that, even when it wasn’t a proposal the two-time All-Star was prone to settle for.
The Astros appeared to be up towards their restrict late final winter. As soon as they misplaced Kendall Graveman to shoulder surgical procedure, possession signed off on a shocking $95MM contract for Josh Hader. Possibly they’ll finally do the identical to retain Bregman. That’d be simpler to check in the event that they managed to dump wage in a commerce, particularly since they’d face escalating penalties for paying the luxurious tax in consecutive years. How may they go about reducing spending?
The Astros have $142MM in assured contracts for subsequent season. They’d have a tricky time transferring most of these offers. They’re not buying and selling Jose Altuve ($30MM) or Yordan Alvarez ($15MM). There’s little incentive to promote low on Cristian Javier ($10MM) halfway by means of Tommy John rehab. Buying and selling Hader ($19MM) after one season of a five-year deal isn’t taking place. Lance McCullers Jr.’s harm historical past means they wouldn’t discover a taker for his $17MM wage with out paying the contract down virtually the whole approach.
Houston can’t commerce any portion of the $19.5MM they owe to José Abreu after releasing him. They might technically commerce Rafael Montero, who stays within the group after being outrighted from the 40-man roster. Nobody’s letting them off the hook for any a part of his $11.5MM wage, although. That’s $122MM in commitments to gamers who’ve virtually no likelihood of being moved.
Of the gamers on assured offers, the one life like commerce choices are Victor Caratini and Ryan Pressly. Caratini is making an reasonably priced $6MM as a high quality complement to Yainer Diaz behind the plate. The Astros may discover a taker, however they’d in all probability have to subsequently commit $3-4MM to signal a backup catcher. Transferring Caratini wouldn’t make a lot of a distinction within the Bregman bidding.
As we famous after we named Pressly the offseason’s #14 commerce candidate, offloading the reliever’s $14MM wage is essentially the most easy possibility. It’s one the entrance workplace has thought of. A Pressly commerce is a powerful chance, however it’s not inevitable. It’d deal a success to their bullpen, for one. Pressly additionally has full no-trade rights as a 10-and-5 participant. If he doesn’t need to transfer, he’s staying.
That leaves their arbitration group. Houston has one of many greatest arbitration courses within the league. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz tasks them for a mixed wage nearing $54MM. They’re largely key gamers. Houston’s arb class breaks down as follows (the salaries are projections, not finalized numbers).
Most of these gamers are making between $2-5MM. Buying and selling somebody like Dubón or Meyers is believable, however as with a possible Caratini transfer, it’s not particularly consequential from a payroll perspective. If Houston needed to clear vital cash from their arbitration class, the clearest approach can be to maneuver certainly one of Tucker or Valdez.
This week, Chandler Rome of the Athletic floated the concept of the Astros entertaining a Valdez or Tucker commerce. To be clear, that was framed as hypothesis, not outlined reporting that the Astros are literally contemplating it. Tucker and Valdez are each 12 months from free company. Rome factors out that they’re trending in the direction of contracts that Crane has historically been reluctant to approve — particularly Tucker. He argues that the Astros may use certainly one of Tucker or Valdez so as to add expertise to a skinny farm system whereas remaining a contender for an additional AL West crown. That’s very true if the Astros use the additional payroll room to complete a cope with Bregman.
Of the 2, Valdez would in all probability be barely simpler to exchange. After a horrible April, Hunter Brown pitched like a top-of-the-rotation starter. Ronel Blanco fired 167 1/3 innings of two.80 ERA ball in a breakout season. Garcia could possibly be prepared for Opening Day after shedding the ’24 season to Tommy John surgical procedure. Earlier than his harm, he was a high quality mid-rotation starter. The identical is true of McCullers, though his harm historical past over the previous three seasons makes him troublesome to depend on. Spencer Arrighetti confirmed the flexibility to overlook bats and quietly posted a wonderful end in 2024; over his closing 13 begins, he pitched 76 innings with a 3.08 ERA, 29% strikeout price and eight.3% stroll price. J.P. France could possibly be again later within the 12 months after shedding this season to a shoulder process. He’s a succesful back-end arm if wholesome.
Buying and selling Valdez would subtract the Astros’ most dependable supply of innings, to make sure. But a beginning 5 of Brown, Garcia, Blanco, Arrighetti and a few mixture of McCullers and France has respectable upside. The Astros would in all probability want so as to add rotation assist on the deadline for a second straight 12 months, however it wouldn’t be a disastrous group to open the season. They’d have to be extra aggressive in stockpiling non-roster depth than they’ve been in prior offseasons. They might additionally goal at the least one near-MLB pitching prospect in the event that they had been to significantly take into account a Valdez commerce.
Transferring Tucker is a a lot more durable promote. Even when the Astros don’t assume there’s a lot likelihood they’ll re-sign him, they’d take an enormous downgrade to their 2025 lineup. Tucker could possibly be a prime 5-10 hitter in MLB subsequent season. His foot harm was a supply of frustration this 12 months, however there’s no option to exchange the form of manufacturing (.289/.408/.585 with 23 homers in 339 plate appearances) they’d be shedding. The outfield is already a relative weak level after McCormick underperformed this 12 months.
None of that is to say a Tucker or Valdez commerce is probably going. Certainly, there’s no indication the Astros have given both state of affairs severe thought. In the event that they discover it harder than anticipated to line up a Pressly commerce, there’s at the least an argument for them pondering larger to create some spending capability.
