Jorge Martin can seal the 2024 MotoGP title within the Malaysian Grand Prix after his nearest rival Francesco Bagnaia crashed out of Saturday’s dash race at Sepang.
In what many see because the decisive second of their championship scrap, Bagnaia misplaced the entrance finish of his manufacturing facility Ducati on the tough uphill Flip 9 on lap 3 of 10, whereas operating in second place behind Martin.
This has given the Pramac rider a large 29-point lead within the championship standings, with simply two grands prix and a dash race left to run.
The 26-year-old could have his first match level in Sunday’s full-distance race as he goals to avenge for his title defeat to Bagnaia in 2023.
An early coronation may very well be essential for the Spaniard, because the venue and date for the season finale is but to be introduced. Valencia was as a result of host the ultimate spherical on 15-17 November, however heavy flooding within the area compelled MotoGP to cancel the race simply two weeks forward of its scheduled date. A alternative spherical may happen in Jerez, Barcelona, Portimao or Qatar.
How Martin can wrap up the title in Malaysian GP
| Martin | Bagnaia |
|---|---|
| If Martin wins | Bagnaia should end third or decrease |
| If Martin finishes second | Bagnaia should end fifth or decrease |
| If Martin finishes third | Bagnaia should end ninth or decrease |
| If Martin finishes fourth | Bagnaia should end twelfth or decrease |
| If Martin finishes fifth | Bagnaia should end 14th or decrease |
| If Martin finishes sixth | Bagnaia should end fifteenth or decrease |
| If Martin finishes seventh | Bagnaia should not rating factors |
| If Martin finishes eight or decrease | The title is not going to be determined in Malaysia |
To place it into easy phrases, Martin wants to increase his lead by no less than 9 factors to be able to be topped the 2024 champion in Malaysia.
Meaning he should end no less than seventh to be able to put the title out of Bagnaia’s attain.
Given the velocity each Martin and Bagnaia have proven up to now this weekend, it’s possible that the 2 will end on the rostrum.
If Martin wins the race, his title rival should end third or decrease for the championship to be determined early. If Bagnaia is ready to observe Martin residence in second place, that can imply the title struggle will proceed into the finale – albeit with a mammoth 34-point hole between the 2.
A second-place end for Martin could be sufficient if Bagnaia fails to complete larger than fifth.
The ultimate spot on the rostrum would additionally suffice if the two-time champion has a tough race and can’t end inside the highest eight.
The championship struggle will carry over to the ultimate spherical if Bagnaia wins the race or finishes second no matter Martin’s ending place.
The alternative state of affairs
Jorge Martin, Pramac Racing, Francesco Bagnaia, Ducati Crew
Picture by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Photos
Regardless of the place Martin finishes on Sunday, he’ll head to the ultimate spherical because the championship chief.
Even when Bagnaia wins the grand prix and Martin fails to attain, the Spaniard will nonetheless maintain a four-point lead within the standings.
Whereas Martin has already put one hand on the title, Bagnaia’s solely possibility is to attain the utmost variety of factors on Sunday after which hope for a miracle within the season finale. AÂ complete of 37 factors would then be on supply within the final spherical.
Here is how the championship image would appear like if Bagnaia wins the Malaysian GP and Martin finishes second or decrease:
| Â Bagnaia | Martin | Factors hole |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | Finishes second | 24 |
| Wins | Finishes third | 20 |
| Wins | Finishes fourth | 17 |
| Wins | Finishes fifth | 15 |
| Wins | Finishes sixth | 14 |
| Wins | Finishes seventh | 13 |
| Wins | Finishes eighth | 12 |
| Wins | Finishes ninth | 11 |
| Wins | Finishes tenth | 10 |
| Wins | Finishes eleventh | 9 |
| Wins | Finishes twelfth | 8 |
| Wins | Finishes thirteenth | 7 |
| Wins | Finishes 14th | 6 |
| Wins | Finishes fifteenth | 5 |
| Wins | Fails to attain some extent / retires | 4 |
