The New York Islanders changed former head coach Lane Lambert with Corridor of Fame goaltender, Patrick Roy, in the midst of the 2023-24 season. Underneath Roy, the staff performed to a near-100-point tempo, combating their method into the playoffs earlier than dropping in Spherical 1 to the Carolina Hurricanes. This was a stark distinction to the Islanders’ efficiency below Lambert, suggesting that expectations for the 2024-25 season ought to focus primarily on the staff’s efficiency below Roy
Lee and Cizikas’ Worrisome Play
The Islanders had two gamers with concerningly completely different outcomes below the 2 head coaches final season: Anders Lee and Casey Cizikas. The 2 forwards have over 1,800 mixed video games of their careers, all on Lengthy Island, but struggled to seek out their footing as soon as Roy took the helm. To start the 2023-24 season, Lee had 19 factors (13 targets and 6 assists) in 45 video games, whereas Cizikas had 11 factors (5 targets and 6 assists) in 39 video games.
As soon as Roy was employed, Lee scored 18 factors (seven targets and 11 assists) in 36 video games, comparable manufacturing to the primary half, however he had only one major help. This isn’t uncommon for Lee, who had simply two major assists within the first half of the season, however contemplating his level manufacturing was down over your entire season, 2024-25 will not be the rebound followers are hoping for.
It was the same story for Cizikas, who had zero major assists in 31 video games below Roy, in comparison with 5 in 39 video games with Lambert. This may be attributed to Cizikas’ play alongside veterans Matt Martin and Cal Clutterbuck, two defensive-oriented veteran wingers, however contemplating he noticed time on the primary line alongside Mat Barzal and Bo Horvat, zero major assists are inexcusable.
Stronger Defensive Construction
The most important distinction the Islanders had with Roy on the helm was the heightened defensive construction. In Lambert’s 45 video games, the staff had a 46.99 targets share (GF%), 46.11 anticipated targets share (xGF%), and 34.28 photographs in opposition to per 60 minutes (SA/60), in keeping with Evolving Hockey. Underneath Roy, 51.66 G%, 51.48 xGF%, and 29.56 SA/60. The truth that the Islanders have been capable of even keep within the playoff race below Lambert is a miracle, and the change to Roy undoubtedly salvaged the season.
Defensive Influence on Sorokin
What made Roy’s arrival so impactful was the load lifted off of Ilya Sorokin’s shoulders. With Lambert, Sorokin confronted extra photographs per sport than any goaltender within the NHL, together with eight video games with 40 or extra photographs in opposition to. Underneath Roy, that quantity dropped to 4, with one among them being in his first sport as head coach.
The improved defensive system allowed Sorokin to barely enhance his numbers below Roy, however the harm was already finished. Sorokin was labored tirelessly and was clearly fatigued by the All-Star break, letting in weak targets for the primary time in his NHL profession. He had the same save share and targets saved above anticipated (GSAx) per 60 minutes below the 2 head coaches, however his goals-against common dropped from 3.163 below Lambert to 2.727 with Roy.
Roy Maximizing Key Contributors
Whereas Cizikas and Lee’s level manufacturing struggled with Roy, that was not the case for a lot of gamers. Kyle Palmieri led the Islanders with 19 targets in 37 video games with Roy, taking part in to a 42-goal tempo. Barzal had 34 factors (11 targets and 23 assists) in 36 video games, ending on tempo to set a career-high in targets with almost 27. Brock Nelson could have scored simply 14 targets in 37 video games, however he had 33 factors in that span, together with 14 major assists. Over an 82-game season, he would have completed with 31 targets and 73 factors, coming inside arm’s attain of profession highs in each classes.
How Expectations for This Season Change
Whereas there’s a lot to match between the primary and second half of the Islanders’ 2023-24 season, it was nonetheless a comparatively brief pattern measurement. Not solely have been the traces continually shifting as a consequence of accidents, however Roy’s system was possible by no means absolutely applied given his midseason arrival. Nevertheless, there’s sufficient knowledge to shift expectations for some gamers this season.
Sorokin Will Bounce Again
Sorokin undeniably appeared higher within the second half, even together with his fatigue, and at 29 years previous, there isn’t a cause to consider he’ll regress. He continued to make nice saves, so a powerful protection will profit him probably the most by decreasing the variety of photographs he faces, enhancing each his each day efficiency and long-term sturdiness.
Lee and Cizikas’ Path to Success
Lee and Cizikas struggled below Roy, however every ought to bounce again. Cizikas is about to play alongside two new linemates who ought to enhance his offensive manufacturing whereas offering stability and a few youth. Lee is more likely to be demoted to the underside six, however which may be for the most effective. In April of final season, he performed alongside Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Pierre Engvall for 4 video games. In these video games, the road had a 63.9 anticipated targets share (xG%). Then within the playoffs, the road had a 68.3 xG%. These are very brief pattern sizes, however having such sturdy numbers is best than not.
High Forwards Proceed to Succeed
The Islanders’ high six’s manufacturing ought to stay the identical, which is one way or the other factor. After falling in need of the Stanley Cup in 2020 and 2021 as a consequence of a scarcity of top-six scoring, that concern is lengthy gone for the Islanders. Barzal, Nelson, and Horvat all had sustainable performances below Roy, and whereas Palmieri could barely regress, he must be in line for a 20+ aim, 40+ level season.
Wholesome Protection
With a wholesome protection, Sorokin is just not the one participant who stands to learn. If Ryan Pulock, Adam Pelech, and Scott Mayfield can keep wholesome for all 82 video games, Noah Dobson must be enabled to really showcase his offensive prowess. Like Sorokin, Dobson was overworked with the defensive accidents, ending the season with 1,936 minutes, probably the most by an Islander because the 2009-10 season (Mark Streit, 2,082 minutes). Permitting Dobson to experience the bench through the penalty kill and for an additional few occasion energy shifts will make him much more deadly when on the ice. The protection staying wholesome is a giant “if,” but when it occurs, this staff may compete with the easiest.
This isn’t to say the Islanders are an astronomically stronger staff below Roy, however there’s a a lot greater ceiling for what this staff is able to. Whereas rather a lot can, and doubtless will, go unsuitable, there’s quite a lot of optimism to consider the adjustments Roy will enact will make this staff stronger on a nightly foundation, probably propelling them into Stanley Cup rivalry if all goes properly.
