The New York Islanders have begun their 2024-25 season with a 1-1-1 file. Offseason acquisitions Maxim Tsyplakov and Anthony Duclair have slot in nicely throughout their first few video games on Lengthy Island, whereas key forwards Mat Barzal, Bo Horvat, and Brock Nelson proceed to cleared the path. Nevertheless, depth, significantly among the many forwards, has been a priority, and the workforce might want to deal with this challenge quickly in the event that they hope to enhance on final season’s late run.
Wahlstrom Not a Match on the Fourth Line
Drafted in 2018, Oliver Wahlstrom was as soon as a extremely touted prospect for the Islanders, recognized for his highly effective shot and the potential to turn out to be a 30+ objective scorer. Nevertheless, at 24 years outdated, he has but to satisfy these expectations, and the Islanders appear hesitant to make a definitive name on his future. Whereas he’s not essentially a bust, his uncooked expertise has not translated into constant manufacturing, and the workforce lacks the time or persistence for him to work via such shortcomings. His torn ACL damage throughout the 2022-23 season has additional hindered his growth, along with his skating considerably deteriorating for the reason that damage, limiting his upside.
Associated: New York Islanders’ 2024-25 Stat Predictions
Heading into the 2024-25 season, many anticipated Wahlstrom to be despatched to the Bridgeport Islanders within the American Hockey League, however as an alternative, he made the Islanders’ opening evening roster and has performed in all three video games on the fourth line. Sadly, his skating and defensive consistency has struggled, holding the road again.
Whereas Wahlstrom has but to register some extent, the larger challenge is his total efficiency. He has not been on the ice for an Islanders objective and presently holds a 20.1% anticipated targets share (xG%), based on MoneyPuck. His linemates, Kyle MacLean, and Casey Cizikas, have additionally underperformed offensively, however each contribute within the faceoff dot and on the penalty kill—areas the place Wahlstrom has offered no affect.
At this stage in Wahlstrom’s profession, he’s not suited to a fourth-line position. As a shoot-first winger, he’s being requested to play extra like a bodily, two-way ahead, which doesn’t align along with his strengths. Sadly for Wahlstrom, the Islanders are a contending workforce with a logjam on the wing, which means they don’t have the power to information him via vital growth, which means reducing ties could also be one of the best plan of action. When the workforce positioned Pierre Engvall on waivers, basic supervisor Lou Lamoriello acknowledged, “[Engvall] shouldn’t be a bottom-six participant… however there’s solely a lot room [on the roster].” This sentiment clearly displays the group’s philosophy, and it’s time they apply the identical customary to Wahlstrom.
At present, the Islanders’ fourth line ranks third-last within the NHL with a 25% anticipated targets share (xG%) and final within the league with a 0.0% targets for share (G%). It additionally sits on the backside of the Islanders’ rankings in anticipated targets per 60 minutes (0.96) and anticipated targets towards per 60 minutes (2.87), far worse than the opposite traces. Whereas the fourth line stands out as the least impactful of the workforce’s ahead models, these numbers are unacceptable and should not be ignored.
Fixing the Fourth Line
There are two potential options for the Islanders’ fourth-line struggles. The primary choice is to scratch Wahlstrom and plug Julien Gauthier into the lineup. At present the Islanders’ thirteenth ahead, the 27-year-old has but to play in an everyday season sport. He possesses pace, a powerful shot, and is reliable in transition and the defensive zone. Final season, he performed 27 video games for the Islanders, registering 9 factors (5 targets and 4 assists). Whereas his superior analytics weren’t excellent, his pace might add worth to the revamped fourth line. With how poorly the present line seems, there’s nothing to lose in making an attempt Gauthier for a sport or two.
The second choice to deal with the Islanders’ bottom-six points includes sending Wahlstrom to Bridgeport, recalling Engvall to play on the third line, and shifting Simon Holmstrom to the fourth line. This is able to permit Engvall to play alongside Anders Lee and Jean-Gabriel Pageau, reuniting a line that posted a 60.7% anticipated targets share (xG%) of their 4 video games collectively final season. Within the playoffs, they recorded a powerful 68.3% xG%, the very best of any line mixture throughout that point.
It’s vital to notice that this evaluation doesn’t indicate that Wahlstrom is a nasty hockey participant. The issue lies not in his means however in how he has been utilized. This attitude is predicated not on a knee-jerk response from simply three video games, both, however fairly on an evaluation of his skillset and the Islanders’ present course. He was an incredible prospect and nonetheless has potential, however the scenario doesn’t permit for Wahlstrom to interrupt out on Lengthy Island, which means it’s time for the Islanders to maneuver on.
